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re: Baseball Polls - May 18
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:03 pm to bubbz
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:03 pm to bubbz
quote:
Good position but on the bubble:
Florida
Miami
Vandy
A&M
Dallas Baptist
Missouri St
I think its safe to take MSU off your list and maybe even move Miami to "IN" side with the #2 RPI and 2nd place finish in the ACC/ winner of the Coastal.
That leaves DBU, Vandy, A&M, & UF fighting for 2 spots. If they keep the whole #1 RPI gets a national seed thing going then add DBU to the "IN" list.
So it comes down to A&M, UF, & Vandy. Its such a tight race. UF and Vandey have a clear edge in SOS. But Vandy doesn't even have 40 wins yet and win% of under 70% while A&M is over 80%. You look at wins vs top 25(UF, A&M, Vandy), top 50(UF, A&M, Vandy), and top 100 (Vandy, UF, A&M). I think it shows a clear edge for UF, followed closely by A&M THEN Vandy.
2
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:05 pm to memphisplaya
quote:
Probably has more to do with your constant belittling of any poll that had LSU ranked higher than a&m prior to the head to head matchup.
I think I made 1 or 2 comments about that earlier in the year when A&M had a better resume up to that point. It had much more to do than just A&M/LSU, but you only read what you want to. I also said that it was stil early, they would settle it on the field, and that what really matters is getting a national seed to help a deep postseason run.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:09 pm to Farmer1906
I could see it coming down to Vandy and A&M playing a best of 3 in the tournament this week for a national seed.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:12 pm to Vandyrone
quote:
I could see it coming down to Vandy and A&M playing a best of 3 in the tournament this week for a national seed.
I believe we could only play 2 though in Game 11 and Game 15 (single elim). But yes the potential game(s) will be huge.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:16 pm to Farmer1906
Yup. Game 15 would likely decide it if the 2 teams played in that game.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:24 pm to Vandyrone
I wonder would Vandy save Fulmer for a possible A&M matchup on Thursday?
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:25 pm to Farmer1906
I disagree with taking Missouri St off the list. They beat DBU 2 out of 3 and won its conference. Missouri St also has a top 10 rpi. DBU did not win its conference. Just because you discovered a flaw in the rpi system and played 30+ road games, and have the #1 RPI doesn't mean you get a national seed. DBU is not a lock by any means.
I agree Miami is probably closer to a lock than anyone on the 2nd list.
If Vandy and A&M play on Thursday, that could very well decide a national seed.
I agree Miami is probably closer to a lock than anyone on the 2nd list.
If Vandy and A&M play on Thursday, that could very well decide a national seed.
This post was edited on 5/18/15 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:27 pm to Vandyrone
quote:
I could see it coming down to Vandy and A&M playing a best of 3 in the tournament this week for a national seed.
This is quite possible. But think it's between DBU, UF,A&M, Vandy for final two spots.
But if DBU doesn't win the MVC tourney, I think they are out. I have a hard time believing a team that finished 2nd in their conference (which is #5 RPI) will be given a national seed if they don't at least win the conference tourney. Plus I think any loss in conference will probably knock them out of the top spot in RPI
If I were betting on it, I'd wager the SEC gets 3 because DBU may lose and even if they don't the committee may pass over them for lack of top 50 weekend games.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:29 pm to tmc94
quote:Except that they can't play 3 times.
This is quite possible.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:33 pm to bubbz
quote:
I disagree with taking Missouri St off the list
Sorry, Mizzou St is not worth discussing in the national seed picture. They have 6 top 50 wins all year and they don't have a single OOC win of significance. Agreed, DBU finishing 2nd to them is a major flaw, but winning a weak conference does not put you in the discussion.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:34 pm to Diamondawg
quote:
Except that they can't play 3 times.
Yeah that was my mistake. Game 15 winner would likely decide it.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:37 pm to Diamondawg
quote:
I wonder would Vandy save Fulmer for a possible A&M matchup on Thursday?
It's a possibility. I think it depends on how seriously Vandy takes the tournament this week.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 12:49 pm to bubbz
I think it depends on how the selection committee weights Human Polls versus Computer RPI.
If they give more weight to the polls then I think the eight seeds would be LSU, UCLA, TCU, Illinois, Miami, Florida, Texas A&M and Louisville.
If they give more weight to RPI I could see it being LSU, UCLA, TCU, Miami, Florida, Dallas Baptist, Illinois and then A&M or Louisville battling for the last seed.
If they give more weight to the polls then I think the eight seeds would be LSU, UCLA, TCU, Illinois, Miami, Florida, Texas A&M and Louisville.
If they give more weight to RPI I could see it being LSU, UCLA, TCU, Miami, Florida, Dallas Baptist, Illinois and then A&M or Louisville battling for the last seed.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:00 pm to bubbz
If I had to rank a pecking order of the 3 in terms for a top 8 seed now it would be:
Florida
Vandy
A&M
It's all real close though. With unbalanced schedules now, a one game difference in the standings doesn't make much of a difference. LSU got a top 8 seed last year over Ole Miss despite finishing behind them in the West. And if you listen to the committee chairman last year, Vandy was one of the last teams not to get a top 8 despite finishing in 6th place.
Florida
Vandy
A&M
It's all real close though. With unbalanced schedules now, a one game difference in the standings doesn't make much of a difference. LSU got a top 8 seed last year over Ole Miss despite finishing behind them in the West. And if you listen to the committee chairman last year, Vandy was one of the last teams not to get a top 8 despite finishing in 6th place.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:02 pm to tmc94
Agree to disagree, if that's the case, take DBU out the picture, which would leave 2 spots for Vandy A&M and Florida.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:05 pm to Emergent C Steve
quote:
If they give more weight to the polls then I think the eight seeds would be LSU, UCLA, TCU, Illinois, Miami, Florida, Texas A&M and Louisville.
They shouldn't be taking human polls into account. They are the human polls.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:08 pm to tmc94
I agree it is a weak conference. I would also like to state the Big XII RPI finished behind the MV. TCU and their 7 wins vs the top 50 should not be the lock everyone (including myself) is considering them. Thjey should be in the same boat at DBU & MSU.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:12 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
They shouldn't be taking human polls into account. They are the human polls.
If you don't take human polls into account at all, here would be your top eight:
UCLA, LSU, TCU, Miami, Florida, Dallas Baptist, Missouri State and Texas A&M. Louisville and Illinois are left out in the cold. Not saying this is good or bad.
This post was edited on 5/18/15 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:14 pm to Emergent C Steve
quote:
UCLA, LSU, TCU, Miami, Florida, Dallas Baptist, Illinois and Texas A&M. Louisville is left out in the cold. Not saying this is good or bad.
Where are you getting this? RPI alone? That is more than just RPI that factors into it. Conference finish, SOS, vs top 25/50/100, road record, finish, etc.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 1:18 pm to Farmer1906
My point is you have to have some human input poll wise to take into account the things you mentioned because by and large computers don't.
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