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Annual Preseason Prediction Thread - How accurate is tRant?
Posted on 8/12/16 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 8/12/16 at 4:21 pm
I was curious to see how well we, collectively, did as predictors on the Rant.
Every school was "overrated" by their fans.
Here's the list of most to least accurate. The number to the right is the number of wins predicted over the number of wins obtained.
Alabama - 1
Missouri - 3*
Ole Miss - 3.5
Texas A&M - 3.5*
Vanderbilt - 3.5
Georgia - 4.5
Miss State - 4.5
Florida - 5.5
LSU - 5.5
Kentucky - 6*
Tennessee - 9.5
Arkansas - 10.5
Auburn - 10.5
South Carolina - 12.5
*- Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri have one less season (2011 neither A&M nor Mizzou were in the SEC; no UK fans submitted predictions in 2012) - If you went by average per season, Vandy and Ole Miss slide just past Missouri for a tie for 2nd place
The biggest outlier seasons:
2011 - Ole Miss overrated by 4 wins
2012 - Arkansas and Auburn overrated by 5.5 wins
2013 - Florida overrated by 5.5 wins
2014 - Vandy overrated by 5 wins
2015 - South Carolina overrated by 5.5 wins
Most underrated:
2013 Missouri - 3.5 wins
2013 Auburn - 3 wins
2012 Florida - 3 wins
Correctly predicted seasons:
Alabama (4) - 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015 (All 11-1)
Arkansas (2) - 2011 (10-2), 2014 (6-6)
Auburn (0) - Never
Florida (0) - Never
Georgia (1) - 2012 (11-1)
Kentucky (1) - 2014 (5-7)
LSU (0) - Never
MSU (1) - 2012 (8-4)
Missouri (1) - 2014 (10-2)
Ole Miss (2) - 2014, 2015 (All 9-3)
South Carolina (0) - Never
Tennessee (0) - Never
Texas A&M (0) - Never
Vanderbilt (0) - Never
Every school was "overrated" by their fans.
Here's the list of most to least accurate. The number to the right is the number of wins predicted over the number of wins obtained.
Alabama - 1
Missouri - 3*
Ole Miss - 3.5
Texas A&M - 3.5*
Vanderbilt - 3.5
Georgia - 4.5
Miss State - 4.5
Florida - 5.5
LSU - 5.5
Kentucky - 6*
Tennessee - 9.5
Arkansas - 10.5
Auburn - 10.5
South Carolina - 12.5
*- Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri have one less season (2011 neither A&M nor Mizzou were in the SEC; no UK fans submitted predictions in 2012) - If you went by average per season, Vandy and Ole Miss slide just past Missouri for a tie for 2nd place
The biggest outlier seasons:
2011 - Ole Miss overrated by 4 wins
2012 - Arkansas and Auburn overrated by 5.5 wins
2013 - Florida overrated by 5.5 wins
2014 - Vandy overrated by 5 wins
2015 - South Carolina overrated by 5.5 wins
Most underrated:
2013 Missouri - 3.5 wins
2013 Auburn - 3 wins
2012 Florida - 3 wins
Correctly predicted seasons:
Alabama (4) - 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015 (All 11-1)
Arkansas (2) - 2011 (10-2), 2014 (6-6)
Auburn (0) - Never
Florida (0) - Never
Georgia (1) - 2012 (11-1)
Kentucky (1) - 2014 (5-7)
LSU (0) - Never
MSU (1) - 2012 (8-4)
Missouri (1) - 2014 (10-2)
Ole Miss (2) - 2014, 2015 (All 9-3)
South Carolina (0) - Never
Tennessee (0) - Never
Texas A&M (0) - Never
Vanderbilt (0) - Never
This post was edited on 8/17/16 at 12:22 pm
13
Posted on 8/12/16 at 4:23 pm to skrayper
Wow, props for taking the time to do that.
Posted on 8/12/16 at 4:25 pm to skrayper
Posted on 8/12/16 at 4:25 pm to skrayper
Well if you go 11-1 and follow that up with 4-8, you are probably going to miss your estimate by a lot.
Posted on 8/12/16 at 4:35 pm to bigDgator
Also worth noting that I predict MSU to hoist the crystal ball aloft every year
Posted on 8/12/16 at 4:42 pm to skrayper
Last year killed us.
Posted on 8/12/16 at 4:55 pm to skrayper
quote:
The biggest outlier seasons:
2011 - Ole Miss overrated by 4 wins
frick you , Houston Nutt... And go to hell.
Good work... Interesting info.
This post was edited on 8/12/16 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 8/12/16 at 5:02 pm to skrayper
quote:
The number to the right is the number of wins predicted over the number of wins obtained.
Which prediction thread years are being included for this? Since its inception?
Posted on 8/12/16 at 5:31 pm to TOFTR
All of the ones linked in this year's thread: 2011 - on.
Posted on 8/12/16 at 5:44 pm to skrayper
quote:
Tennessee - 9.5
Arkansas - 10.5
Auburn - 10.5
Posted on 8/12/16 at 6:11 pm to skrayper
I don't know why, but every time I read your TD handle I read it in my head as "sky raper."
Posted on 8/12/16 at 6:30 pm to Dixie Normus
quote:
I don't know why, but every time I read your TD handle I read it in my head as "sky raper."
Many people do.
I tell them it's Freudian, and they have sexual fetishes for clouds.
Posted on 8/13/16 at 9:34 am to skrayper
One note - Alabama was accurate every year but 2012. The Tide has had the exact same regular season record every year since 2011, making then the easiest to predict as well.
Posted on 8/13/16 at 9:42 am to skrayper
Good stuff
Posted on 8/13/16 at 11:06 am to skrayper
nice
the take away?
Arky, Aubbie, Cocks & Vols are the most unrealistic fans in the SEC
the take away?
Arky, Aubbie, Cocks & Vols are the most unrealistic fans in the SEC
Posted on 8/13/16 at 4:44 pm to Captain Crown
One thing I was going to do with I have the data again is list the number of times each fan base got it right - off the top of my head, I know Alabama fans got it right in 11, 13, 14, 15 - but unfortunately, that's the only one I can recall immediately (it was kind of easy with that prediction being at +1).
Another take away is looking at the teams that had the most underrated seasons, then looking at where they placed - as every school was overrated by some margin by their fans, an large underrated season coupled with a trend of being one of the most overrated would probably lead to the conclusion of that team being given the most promise that doesn't follow through.
Another take away is looking at the teams that had the most underrated seasons, then looking at where they placed - as every school was overrated by some margin by their fans, an large underrated season coupled with a trend of being one of the most overrated would probably lead to the conclusion of that team being given the most promise that doesn't follow through.
Posted on 8/13/16 at 6:45 pm to skrayper
Who predicted us to win more than 5 or 6 games the past couple of seasons, much less enough to create an average differential of 6 wins? Are you sure you weren't looking at all those 40-0 predictions?
This post was edited on 8/13/16 at 6:46 pm
Posted on 8/13/16 at 7:07 pm to UKWildcats
quote:
Who predicted us to win more than 5 or 6 games the past couple of seasons,
Ask your Kentucky buddies that post here. they are the one that have consistently overvalued your football program.
Posted on 8/14/16 at 12:36 am to UKWildcats
quote:
Who predicted us to win more than 5 or 6 games the past couple of seasons, much less enough to create an average differential of 6 wins? Are you sure you weren't looking at all those 40-0 predictions?
I used the average predicted record from each year. If memory serves, outliers are disregarded.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 12:22 pm to skrayper
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