An objective look at the LSU-Bama game [LONG]

Feel free to chime in

LSU has the clear advantages here:

-Rushing offense (not much needs to be said here, LF7 is a beast)
-O-line play (both in sacks allowed, TFLs allowed, rushing ypa). Alabama's Oline looks like a mess more often than not. It also takes way more penalties than it ever has under Saban.
-Giveaways. LSU just hasn't given the ball away. Alabama has.
-Ability for big plays of 30+ yards. Harris has hit more than Coker with one less game. It's a big part of his game with almost 400/1000 of his yards coming from plays of 50+ or more. LF7 has 7 30+ runs on the year, Henry has 5.
-Field goals. 9/9 on the season.



Alabama has the clear advantages here:
-Secondary play and passing defense
-Takeaways (LSU doesn't create nearly the amount of takeaways)
-DL play in terms of sacks and TFL. 3rd in the nation in sacks.
-Punting. LSU has some scary bad punting.
-Red zone D. This isn't really Alabama being great at it, it is just LSU is last in the conference in it.



It's pretty equal here:

-Rushing defense. Literally neck and neck in almost every measure.
-Passing offense. Bama averages more yards/game, a better completion percentage and more TDs. Harris has improved the last three games and completes more long plays. He also hasn't thrown an interception. Coker relies more on shorter passes than Harris, something to remember.
-Level of retard on the Rant


The things that will matter that people aren't talking about:

-Harris has relied on big passes to gain yardage. This translates to a low completion percentage. In games when the big play isn't working, Harris ends up with a 4/14 of 80 yards (long of 28), 9/14 for 71 yards (long of 23), 12/17 for 74 yards (long of 14). In the 4 games he has thrown for over 100, he has hit longs of 51, 62, 52, 67.

This is important. This isn't me flaming Harris. It's a good skill to have to be able to hit those bombs (Coker doesn't possess it all too well). It is a thing that WILL matter in this game however because Alabama leads the SEC and is 3rd in the nation at getting to the QB. These long bomb plays generally take longer to develop, and this could given Alabama time to get to the QB.
Without a consistent short passing game, it could all rely on LF7's shoulders to get first downs. He's damn good at it, and we'll see how it works out.

So it is an even matchup here, and if Alabama can get through LSU's strength, which is their Oline, and get to the QB, it will impact this game. If LSU can protect QB and allow time for those long plays to develop, and can work around Bama's secondary, then they succeed in this matchup.


-The return game, specifically when LSU kicks to Alabama. Guaranteed either one way or the other, a kickoff/punt return will matter in this game on the scoreboard. LSU has given up the most long punt return plays of 20+ (4 times in one less game). They've also given up 7 30+ kickoff return plays in one less game. These are the worst in the SEC. Meanwhile Alabama is 2nd in the SEC in long punt return plays, and 5th in long kickoff returns.

On the flipside, Alabama fumbles A LOT on kickoff and punt returns. It isn't just the Ole Miss game, it is something that is consistently a hold your breath moment for Alabama every punt return.

So one of these two things has to break. Either Alabama succeeds in conquering that weakness of LSU and gets a lot of yardage on return plays, or LSU succeeds in creating those turnovers against Alabama that Alabama seemingly continues to give up.



Most people are probably just going to say, hurr durr, you've just said protect the QB and don't commit turnovers, everyone knows that! I'm saying much more than that. Those are the two areas where LSU and Alabama have the most significant differences in their play. Whoever capitalizes on the other's most significant weakness is the winner in this football game.