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All-Time SOS for SEC teams
Posted on 5/12/16 at 10:54 am
Posted on 5/12/16 at 10:54 am
So I came up with a way to figure the all-time SOS ratings, based on the final AP poll from each year. Final rankings are used because its the only way to truly test how good an opponent really is. It also produces a fairer comparison.
For example: Georgia Tech began the season last year ranked #16 in the AP. They finished with a 3-9 record. Obviously, they were never close to the 16th best team in the country. Why should Notre Dame get credit for beating a #20 ranked Georgia Tech team early in the year, but Georgia get no credit for beating that same team later on?
So to come up with these rankings, teams get 25 points for every #1 team they play... 24 points for every #2 team they play... 23 points for every #3 team they play... etc. This goes all the way back to the year the AP originated in 1936.
Here are the rankings:
1) Florida- 4,467 points
2) LSU- 4,271 points
3) Alabama- 4,214 points
4) Tennessee- 4,205 points
5) Auburn- 4,045 points
6) Arkansas- 3,944 points
7) Missouri- 3,885 points
8) Texas A&M- 3,872 points
9) Kentucky- 3,819 points
10) Mississippi State- 3,692 points
11) Vanderbilt- 3,593 points
12) Georgia- 3,549 points
13) Ole Miss- 3,312 points
14) South Carolina- 3,148 points
FYI- Nationally, Notre Dame has played the toughest schedule (4,642 points) with Florida #2, LSU #3, USC #4, and Michigan #5.... Alabama is #6, Tennessee #7, Texas is #8, Auburn is #9, and Arkansas is #10.
Missouri and Texas A&M, while new to the conference, have been tested similar to the average SEC Teams. They have played the #12 and #14 toughest schedules, respectively.
It does not surprise me that Florida comes in #1 in the SEC (#2 nationally). Playing an SEC schedule with the addition of Florida State every year adds up over time.
For example: Georgia Tech began the season last year ranked #16 in the AP. They finished with a 3-9 record. Obviously, they were never close to the 16th best team in the country. Why should Notre Dame get credit for beating a #20 ranked Georgia Tech team early in the year, but Georgia get no credit for beating that same team later on?
So to come up with these rankings, teams get 25 points for every #1 team they play... 24 points for every #2 team they play... 23 points for every #3 team they play... etc. This goes all the way back to the year the AP originated in 1936.
Here are the rankings:
1) Florida- 4,467 points
2) LSU- 4,271 points
3) Alabama- 4,214 points
4) Tennessee- 4,205 points
5) Auburn- 4,045 points
6) Arkansas- 3,944 points
7) Missouri- 3,885 points
8) Texas A&M- 3,872 points
9) Kentucky- 3,819 points
10) Mississippi State- 3,692 points
11) Vanderbilt- 3,593 points
12) Georgia- 3,549 points
13) Ole Miss- 3,312 points
14) South Carolina- 3,148 points
FYI- Nationally, Notre Dame has played the toughest schedule (4,642 points) with Florida #2, LSU #3, USC #4, and Michigan #5.... Alabama is #6, Tennessee #7, Texas is #8, Auburn is #9, and Arkansas is #10.
Missouri and Texas A&M, while new to the conference, have been tested similar to the average SEC Teams. They have played the #12 and #14 toughest schedules, respectively.
It does not surprise me that Florida comes in #1 in the SEC (#2 nationally). Playing an SEC schedule with the addition of Florida State every year adds up over time.
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Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:00 am to BHMKyle
quote:
It does not surprise me that Florida comes in #1 in the SEC (#2 nationally). Playing an SEC schedule with the addition of Florida State every year adds up over time.
Well, FSU wasnt a national power until 1987 ( your data is from 1936)
The real reason is UF was a doormat until 1990. Everybody they played was a favorite so that skews the numbers. The powers in the SEC would have watered down numbers because they were favorites. Florida hurt certain teams SOS and playing THOSE teams helped UF's SOS.
Take UF's since 1990 and I bet they aren't number 1.
This post was edited on 5/12/16 at 11:03 am
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:05 am to TouchdownTony
quote:
Everybody they played was a favorite so that skews the numbers
You're an idiot. What does UF's rank have to do with the rank of the opponent they are playing?
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:09 am to BHMKyle
Good work.
I expect the numbers to continue to climb for the SEC teams. There is a decent chance that any SEC school you play during the season will finish ranked. Vanderbilt was ranked not that long ago and if Stoops can keep Kentucky from going into their yearly swan dive they have a shot at being ranked at the end of the year.
Plus in the modern game SEC teams are trying to slot one major P5 opponent from outside the conference every year.
I expect the numbers to continue to climb for the SEC teams. There is a decent chance that any SEC school you play during the season will finish ranked. Vanderbilt was ranked not that long ago and if Stoops can keep Kentucky from going into their yearly swan dive they have a shot at being ranked at the end of the year.
Plus in the modern game SEC teams are trying to slot one major P5 opponent from outside the conference every year.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:14 am to BHMKyle
quote:
1) Florida- 4,467 points
2) LSU- 4,271 points
3) Alabama- 4,214 points
4) Tennessee- 4,205 points
5) Auburn- 4,045 points
6) Arkansas- 3,944 points
A big 6 we can all agree with
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:22 am to BHMKyle
Great work, good basis for your stats, all in all for the effort =)
for the effort =)
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:22 am to TouchdownTony
quote:
TouchdownTony
After this post I think we should call you Fumble Tony. Wow,that was bad.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:22 am to TouchdownTony
quote:
Everybody they played was a favorite so that skews the numbers. The powers in the SEC would have watered down numbers because they were favorites. Florida hurt certain teams SOS and playing THOSE teams helped UF's SOS.
The same rationale applies to Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, etc., and they don't come close to having the #2 SOS in the nation. So your theory does not hold up.
Of Florida's 4,467 total SOS points, Florida State is responsible for the most all-time. They get 589 points from their games against Florida State... 548 from their games against UGA... 486 from their games against Alabama... 475 from their games against LSU.... 465 from their games against Auburn... and 354 for their games against Tennessee.
So obviously Florida State is more responsible for FSU's #2 all-time ranking than any other single program. When you add their points for playing the Seminoles annually on top of their SEC points, it boosts them to the top.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:24 am to AlabamaAlum07
I've never thought College Football Data Warehouse was very accurate. First off, what is their methodology in terms of "Schedule Points" ? I clearly explained my methodology.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:32 am to TouchdownTony
quote:
t does not surprise me that Florida comes in #1 in the SEC (#2 nationally). Playing an SEC schedule with the addition of Florida State every year adds up over time.
quote:
Well, FSU wasnt a national power until 1987 ( your data is from 1936)
True...but if you play a team that is in the top 10 for about a quarter century, it adds up. Who else did Florida play on a regular basis that was top 10? Remember, the SEC only played 7 conference games back in the day, so the likelihood of playing a traditional SEC power every year was limited.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:33 am to BHMKyle
quote:
First off, what is their methodology in terms of "Schedule Points" ? I clearly explained my methodology.
I see a lot of national championship points and Big 4 bowl points in their system that tends to skew the data.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:38 am to BHMKyle
quote:
3) Alabama- 4,214 points
#3 without being able to play ourselves.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:54 am to BHMKyle
quote:
3) Alabama- 4,214 points
Posted on 5/12/16 at 11:58 am to BHMKyle
quote:
I've never thought College Football Data Warehouse was very accurate. First off, what is their methodology in terms of "Schedule Points" ? I clearly explained my methodology.
It's never been that good, IMO, and as you state, it's not explained and it's basically one guys opinion.
I would say using the AP poll is really "SOS", either, as it only includes 20 teams and most of a team's schedule is missed and since 1936 is well after the start of college football, it's certainly not "all-time". However, it's an interesting thing to look at when properly explained.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 1:08 pm to madmaxvol
quote:
Who else did Florida play on a regular basis that was top 10?
They played Miami every year through 1987.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 1:09 pm to pvilleguru
quote:
#3 without being able to play ourselves.
What do you mean without being able to play yourselves? To hear y'all talk, that's the only team that ever beats you.
Posted on 5/12/16 at 1:19 pm to BHMKyle
Great post. Thanks for putting in the work
Posted on 5/12/16 at 1:32 pm to BHMKyle
Do you have a job?
Posted on 5/12/16 at 7:10 pm to TouchdownTony
no fsu was a power in 80 ish
This post was edited on 5/12/16 at 7:14 pm
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