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Alabama vs Ole Miss - honest assessment
Posted on 9/11/16 at 8:39 am
Posted on 9/11/16 at 8:39 am
We'll have a hundred threads about how Bama fans are "scared" or Ole Miss is going to get crushed, but let's have at least one which looks at the game realistically. Of course Bama wants this game badly, and of course Ole Miss is good enough to make this extremely difficult. I think this is the biggest challenge on Bama's schedule right now.
The strength vs strength will be the Ole Miss offense against the Bama defense. Ole Miss doesn't seem to have much of a running game, so the key here whether Bama can get enough of a pass rush to keep Kelly from getting it to his receivers. Alabama has outstanding starters in the secondary. But if Kelly has time to throw, and we're relying on our 3rd and 4th db's in nickel and dime coverages, there could be a lot of big plays. Alabama HAS to get to Kelly.
Weakness on weakness - Bama's running game vs Ole Miss rushing defense in the latter stages of the game. If Alabama runs effectively in the first half and wears out Ole Miss on D the way Florida State did, things should go very well. If Alabama can't sustain drives, have a lot of three and outs and turnovers, and lets Ole Miss still be relatively fresh late into the second half, it's a different story. Right now, it looks like the Bama OL is struggling to get push and Scarborough isn't playing at the level expected. Harris is, though, so if the OL can get it together, eliminate the penalties, and at least establish a decent run to complement Hurts' playmaking, Bama should win.
With Ole Miss' outstanding starters but lack of depth, and Bama's depth and talent but inconsistency and youth, this will be a very interesting game. Despite winning the last two, Ole Miss will be pumped in Oxford. The winner of this is in the driver's seat for the SEC West.
The strength vs strength will be the Ole Miss offense against the Bama defense. Ole Miss doesn't seem to have much of a running game, so the key here whether Bama can get enough of a pass rush to keep Kelly from getting it to his receivers. Alabama has outstanding starters in the secondary. But if Kelly has time to throw, and we're relying on our 3rd and 4th db's in nickel and dime coverages, there could be a lot of big plays. Alabama HAS to get to Kelly.
Weakness on weakness - Bama's running game vs Ole Miss rushing defense in the latter stages of the game. If Alabama runs effectively in the first half and wears out Ole Miss on D the way Florida State did, things should go very well. If Alabama can't sustain drives, have a lot of three and outs and turnovers, and lets Ole Miss still be relatively fresh late into the second half, it's a different story. Right now, it looks like the Bama OL is struggling to get push and Scarborough isn't playing at the level expected. Harris is, though, so if the OL can get it together, eliminate the penalties, and at least establish a decent run to complement Hurts' playmaking, Bama should win.
With Ole Miss' outstanding starters but lack of depth, and Bama's depth and talent but inconsistency and youth, this will be a very interesting game. Despite winning the last two, Ole Miss will be pumped in Oxford. The winner of this is in the driver's seat for the SEC West.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 8:41 am to Crimson Legend
quote:
The winner of this is in the driver's seat for the SEC West.
That's what I used to think
Posted on 9/11/16 at 8:45 am to Crimson Legend
I think it depends on which Chad Kelly shows up for Ole Miss to have a chance.
If it's the turnover machine we saw last week, they are fricked.
If it's the turnover machine we saw last week, they are fricked.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 8:47 am to Crimson Legend
I think Bama wins because the defense is just that good.
I guess the freshman QB could meltdown, but I do not think he will.
Kelly-Engram-Stringfellow-freshmen stud WR will have to really carry the ole miss offense. I just think upfront Bama wins the trench warfare on defense.
Bama 23 OleMiss 14
I guess the freshman QB could meltdown, but I do not think he will.
Kelly-Engram-Stringfellow-freshmen stud WR will have to really carry the ole miss offense. I just think upfront Bama wins the trench warfare on defense.
Bama 23 OleMiss 14
Posted on 9/11/16 at 8:47 am to TulaneFan
Turnovers are always impactful, but with Ole Miss' lack of defensive depth it's doubly so. And with Bama's pass rush and athletic secondary, there's a good chance we'll see a couple.
But Ole Miss is downright prolific when that offense is clicking.
But Ole Miss is downright prolific when that offense is clicking.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:06 am to Crimson Legend
I forgot to mention Engram. Both teams have tight ends with an NFL future, but Ole Miss utilizes theirs better - and that's a problem. I bet a lot of time is spent in practice this week on covering the tight end.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:09 am to Crimson Legend
Bama has the edge here
It'll boil down to time of possession. We can't run very well and score too quick or go 3 and out. Bama will grind us down in a close one, and then pick apart our secondary and run us into the ground. Our d-line is stout, but have very little run/pass support on the next two levels. I think we contain them for a half to three quarters, and then it could get ugly real quick.
Bama 35 Rebels 21
It'll boil down to time of possession. We can't run very well and score too quick or go 3 and out. Bama will grind us down in a close one, and then pick apart our secondary and run us into the ground. Our d-line is stout, but have very little run/pass support on the next two levels. I think we contain them for a half to three quarters, and then it could get ugly real quick.
Bama 35 Rebels 21
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:16 am to WhiskeyDick
Pretty much agree. I predicted 34-17 on the Bama board and posted stats for each through 2 games now.
Scoring offense
Bama 45 ppg
Ole Miss 36 ppg
Scoring defense
Bama 8 ppg
Ole Miss 29 ppg
Rushing
Bama 183 ypg
Ole Miss 120.5 ypg
Rush defense
Bama 43.5 ypg
Ole Miss 197 ypg
Passing
Bama 287 ypg
Ole Miss 277.5 ypg
Turnover margin
Bama 0
Ole Miss -2
Sacks
Bama 3.5 per game
Ole Miss 1.5 per game
3rd Down conversions
Bama 48.45%
Ole Miss 62.5%
Long plays from scrimmage
Bama
10+ yds - 26
20+ yds - 11
30+ yds - 9
40+ yds - 8
50+ yds - 4
60+ yds - 2
70+ yds - 2
Ole Miss
10+ yds - 36
20+ yds - 12
30+ yds - 6
40+ yds - 1
50+ yds or more - 0
Time of possession
Bama 33:13:50 per game
Ole Miss 20:57:50 per game
Interceptions
Bama 3
Ole Miss 0
Limiting Kelly's success on 3rd down will be a key. Ole Miss has been very good on those conversions.
Scoring offense
Bama 45 ppg
Ole Miss 36 ppg
Scoring defense
Bama 8 ppg
Ole Miss 29 ppg
Rushing
Bama 183 ypg
Ole Miss 120.5 ypg
Rush defense
Bama 43.5 ypg
Ole Miss 197 ypg
Passing
Bama 287 ypg
Ole Miss 277.5 ypg
Turnover margin
Bama 0
Ole Miss -2
Sacks
Bama 3.5 per game
Ole Miss 1.5 per game
3rd Down conversions
Bama 48.45%
Ole Miss 62.5%
Long plays from scrimmage
Bama
10+ yds - 26
20+ yds - 11
30+ yds - 9
40+ yds - 8
50+ yds - 4
60+ yds - 2
70+ yds - 2
Ole Miss
10+ yds - 36
20+ yds - 12
30+ yds - 6
40+ yds - 1
50+ yds or more - 0
Time of possession
Bama 33:13:50 per game
Ole Miss 20:57:50 per game
Interceptions
Bama 3
Ole Miss 0
Limiting Kelly's success on 3rd down will be a key. Ole Miss has been very good on those conversions.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:21 am to tiderider
Bama will win by 13 points. That defense will control the game.
Saban will rally them off his meltdown yesterday. He has some very calculated meltdowns
Saban will rally them off his meltdown yesterday. He has some very calculated meltdowns
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:21 am to tiderider
That too, but they're not a big play offense like it seems they have been. Bama has been doing that more so far. Just need to contain their drives and not let them extend them. I think we can pressure Kelly into some mistakes early, I hope.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:26 am to Crimson Legend
If Bama turns it over 5 times and Ole Miss has short fields to drive. Ole Miss will win.
Just like last year
Just like last year
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:26 am to Alahunter
The Reb defense isn't as good as the last two years and that won't bode well for OM.
Bama just has too many weapons on O and Hurts already looks far beyond a TF.
Turnovers will be the key here and I think Bama keeps their defensive streak alive.
Also, look for the pass rush to be truly unleashed against Swag. Pruitt is much more aggressive than Kirby.
Bama just has too many weapons on O and Hurts already looks far beyond a TF.
Turnovers will be the key here and I think Bama keeps their defensive streak alive.
Also, look for the pass rush to be truly unleashed against Swag. Pruitt is much more aggressive than Kirby.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:29 am to Crimson Legend
Watch the replay of the Florida state game......it'll be similar
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:53 am to Crimson Legend
Your new QB is going to show Kelly what swag truly is. Your freshman is very impressive. I would put Francois and Hurts way above Kelly at this point in their career. All this without trying to take anything away from kelly.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:55 am to OBReb6
quote:
quote:
The winner of this is in the driver's seat for the SEC West.
That's what I used to think
If Bama wins they are in the drivers seat, if Ole Miss wins it is anybodys game. Ole Miss lives and dies on the arm of Kelly, he has proven he can be "Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde".
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:55 am to KoachKletus
quote:
Your new QB is going to show Kelly what swag truly is.
That's pretty racist
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:57 am to KoachKletus
quote:
Your new QB is going to show Kelly what swag truly is.
Posted on 9/11/16 at 9:57 am to KoachKletus
quote:
I would put Francois and Hurts way above Kelly at this point in their career. All this without trying to take anything away from kelly.
Get out of here. Neither Francois or Hurts has yet to play a true road game yet in college.
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