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Advanced Stats : Is this the worst SEC since 2006? The answer is yes
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:09 pm
SEC Average S&P+ Rank since 2006
2006 : 33
2007 : 32
2008 : 38
2009 : 29
2010 : 33
2011 : 34
2012 : 30
2013 : 30
2014 : 26
2015 : 39
2016 : 44
This is the 2nd worst the West has been since Alabama's return to prominence in 2009
SEC West Average
2006 : 38
2007 : 43
2008 : 42
2009 : 22
2010 : 19
2011 : 32
2012 : 27
2013 : 23
2014 : 11
2015 : 18
2016 : 27
The SEC East has steadily gotten worse since 2012 (it's highs were 2006 and 2007, as would be expected with Florida, Georgia and Tennessee all being strong during that period with Vandy, Kentucky and South Carolina all being 6-8 win teams).
SEC East Average
2006 : 29
2007 : 21
2008 : 34
2009 : 36
2010 : 48
2011 : 36
2012 : 32
2013 : 37
2014 : 41
2015 : 60
2016 : 59
You can see the East had a bit of an uptick from 2011-2013 when South Carolina was very good and 2 of the 3 out of Missouri/Florida/Georgia were good.
The SEC in 2016 is bad both at the bottom and lacking at the top
# of Top 25 teams
2006 : 6
2007 : 6
2008 : 5
2009 : 7
2010 : 5
2011 : 5
League expands to 14
2012 : 7
2013 : 8
2014 : 9
2015 : 7
2016 : 5
# of teams ranked 60-128
2006 : 3
2007 : 1
2008 : 3
2009 : 1
2010 : 2
2011 : 2
League expands to 14
2012 : 2
2013 : 3
2014 : 1
2015 : 4
2016 : 6
So, in conclusion, the league only has 1 elite team, the league's "upper middle class" has entirely eroded and league's lower class has dropped to Big Ten West type levels of dredge. To me, this was always what separated the SEC from other leagues. Sure, the league always had 2-3 Top 10 quality teams, but the difference was that 7-5 teams in the SEC were Top 40 teams that would then go prove it in bowl games. Trips to Lexington, Columbia, Oxford, etc were tough trips, even if they had close to .500 records. That just ain't the case anymore. The lower teams in the SEC are on the Illinois, Purdue level now.
It's not a pretty scene. If things don't get better soon the SEC is rightfully going to completely hand over their reputation as the deepest and best conference in CFB.
2006 : 33
2007 : 32
2008 : 38
2009 : 29
2010 : 33
2011 : 34
2012 : 30
2013 : 30
2014 : 26
2015 : 39
2016 : 44
This is the 2nd worst the West has been since Alabama's return to prominence in 2009
SEC West Average
2006 : 38
2007 : 43
2008 : 42
2009 : 22
2010 : 19
2011 : 32
2012 : 27
2013 : 23
2014 : 11
2015 : 18
2016 : 27
The SEC East has steadily gotten worse since 2012 (it's highs were 2006 and 2007, as would be expected with Florida, Georgia and Tennessee all being strong during that period with Vandy, Kentucky and South Carolina all being 6-8 win teams).
SEC East Average
2006 : 29
2007 : 21
2008 : 34
2009 : 36
2010 : 48
2011 : 36
2012 : 32
2013 : 37
2014 : 41
2015 : 60
2016 : 59
You can see the East had a bit of an uptick from 2011-2013 when South Carolina was very good and 2 of the 3 out of Missouri/Florida/Georgia were good.
The SEC in 2016 is bad both at the bottom and lacking at the top
# of Top 25 teams
2006 : 6
2007 : 6
2008 : 5
2009 : 7
2010 : 5
2011 : 5
League expands to 14
2012 : 7
2013 : 8
2014 : 9
2015 : 7
2016 : 5
# of teams ranked 60-128
2006 : 3
2007 : 1
2008 : 3
2009 : 1
2010 : 2
2011 : 2
League expands to 14
2012 : 2
2013 : 3
2014 : 1
2015 : 4
2016 : 6
So, in conclusion, the league only has 1 elite team, the league's "upper middle class" has entirely eroded and league's lower class has dropped to Big Ten West type levels of dredge. To me, this was always what separated the SEC from other leagues. Sure, the league always had 2-3 Top 10 quality teams, but the difference was that 7-5 teams in the SEC were Top 40 teams that would then go prove it in bowl games. Trips to Lexington, Columbia, Oxford, etc were tough trips, even if they had close to .500 records. That just ain't the case anymore. The lower teams in the SEC are on the Illinois, Purdue level now.
It's not a pretty scene. If things don't get better soon the SEC is rightfully going to completely hand over their reputation as the deepest and best conference in CFB.
This post was edited on 11/29/16 at 5:15 pm
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Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:13 pm to Triple Daves
Summer of George pls
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:14 pm to Triple Daves
I don't disagree with the stats
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:14 pm to Triple Daves
I don't think we needed advanced stats to figure that out.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:16 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
I don't think we needed advanced stats to figure that out.
But it helps to confirm it, and confirms that the league started down this path last year (the East started down the path in 2013).
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:16 pm to Triple Daves
The SEC was pretty damn good in 2006. You had UF, Auburn, LSU and Arkansas all with double digit wins. And UF won the NC.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:16 pm to Triple Daves
Conference isn't as top heavy. Lots of teams with good but not elite talent (and lots of shitty coaching).
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:17 pm to Triple Daves
Are you a robot?
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:17 pm to jvilletiger25
quote:
The SEC was pretty damn good in 2006. You had UF, Auburn, LSU and Arkansas all with double digit wins. And UF won the NC.
Yep
#1 Florida, #5 LSU, #10 Tennessee, #11 South Carolina, #12 Arkansas, #22 Auburn.
Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky were all in the Top 50.
State, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt were bringing up the rear.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:18 pm to FourThreeForty
quote:
Are you a robot?
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:19 pm to TheWalrus
The last week, except for Kentucky, confirmed all of this
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:19 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
f things don't get better soon the SEC is rightfully going to completely hand over their reputation as the deepest and best conference in CFB.
Too late the Big 10 is considered the best conference now by most analysis, and rightfully so. tOSU will get into the playoffs for having one loss in the toughest conference, and rightfully so. The SEC needs to focus on catching back up to the Big 10, right now. They already handed it over, now they need to take it back.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:20 pm to Triple Daves
MtSECGA
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:21 pm to viceman
quote:
Too late the Big 10 is considered the best conference now by most analysis, and rightfully so. tOSU will get into the playoffs for having one loss in the toughest conference, and rightfully so. The SEC needs to focus on catching back up to the Big 10, right now. They already handed it over, now they need to take it back.
We'll see. The SEC will have a chance in bowl season, though performances so far are not promising, especially since SEC teams generally draw higher finishing teams from other conferences.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:26 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
We'll see. The SEC will have a chance in bowl season, though performances so far are not promising, especially since SEC teams generall
I am not optimistic for the SEC in bowl season. If we look at the top we'll probably agree Bama>tOSU. Do you think any SEC team would beat UM, Wisky, or PSU other than Bama? I don't. The SEC might be able to take their bottom teams with SEC bottom teams, but does anybody really pay attention to that?
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:29 pm to viceman
quote:
I don't. The SEC might be able to take their bottom teams with SEC bottom teams, but does anybody really pay attention to that?
Sure they do, that is important when judging a conference as a whole
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:29 pm to viceman
quote:
Do you think any SEC team would beat UM, Wisky, or PSU other than Bama?
Michigan, no. Wisconsin, pretty sure Auburn or LSU would have a similar game as LSU-Wisky had in September. What is Wisconsin's best win? LSU 16-14 basically at home? Iowa? Nebraska?
I don't think Penn State is much better than average. Penn State's 2nd best win behind their semi-lucky win over Ohio State is ............ Temple? Iowa? Minnesota? They got beat by 40 by Michigan, lost to Pitt. Plus, I think the B1G below those 4 is pretty weak. Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern are all incredibly average. And their bad teams are miserable; Maryland, Michigan St, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue.
Honestly, I think Ohio State and Michigan are both really really good. I think the rest of their league is pretty close to the same as it always was, granted with better coaching.
However, the SEC doesn't get to play many of those teams - they have to play the ACC and the ACC has a pretty solid mid-tier (NC St, VT, Miami, UNC, Pitt, GT). Those teams will go up against Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi State? Not good odds.
This post was edited on 11/29/16 at 5:36 pm
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:39 pm to Triple Daves
I respectfully disagree with you, I think currently Wisky and PSU would wipe the floor with any sec team not named Alabama, however, Auburn might be able to eek out a win with a healthy White at qb.
This post was edited on 11/29/16 at 5:39 pm
Posted on 11/29/16 at 5:54 pm to Triple Daves
Personally, I don't give a shite about the strength of the other sec members... win the conference and you're almost guaranteed a spot in the CFP. Could that change?... Sure. But it seems unlikely.
Posted on 11/29/16 at 6:04 pm to Triple Daves
It's actually the worst since 2015 George.
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