Bracketologists, what say you?

I'm sure most of us are making our last minute checks and changes to our NCAA tourney brackets, so let's have a quick meeting of the minds. Who are the teams to stay away from and why? Also, what's your system for making selections?

I always pick the 1-3 seeds to win in the first round. Then I have a quirky point system when it comes to picking teams between the 4th and 13th seeds in the first round. I look at the difference between their points allowed, points scored, wins vs top-25, last 12 games record going into the tourney, and of course player injuries. And after the first round, I apply this system to everyone.

1. If they have a starter injured it's -3 points. If it's a bench player who actually plays, then it's -1 point.
2. Then how many ppg do they give up compared to their opponent. They get a point for this.
3. Then how big of a difference between ppg given up and ppg scored is there. The better difference gets a point here.
4. How many wins vs top-25. Whomever has more gets a point.
5. And what's their record in last 12 games compared to their opponent. Whomever has better gets a point.

Then whomever has more points thats who I select to win that game.

My upset picks using this system:
Texas over Butler
Indiana over Wichita St.
ND over KU
N. Iowa over Louisville
Providence over Oaklahoma
Virginia over Villanova
Wofford over Arkansas
Xavier over Baylor
OSU over VCU
Arizona over Wisconsin
UCLA over SMU

Final 4:
Kentucky over Arizona
Duke over Virginia

Champs:
Kentucky 77 over Duke 71