Quality NCAA bubble watch...

quote:

---

58. Texas A&M (RPI 36: 18-7, 9-4) Best Wins: LSU (twice), Florida, Arizona St. Worst Losses: @Kansas St., @Alabama. The Aggies added another solid win and now their 2 best wins of the season are both against LSU. With the worst loss being at Kansas St. this is still a solid resume even without the marquee wins that many of their bubble competitors boast. It is tough to envision A&M removing itself from the bubble unless they go an improbable 2-0 on the road this week or slide off the wrong side by taking a few bad losses down the stretch. 12-6 still looks to be the magic number depending on what happens around A&M on the bubble. It would have been very difficult to get there without the win Tuesday night vs. LSU, the same can be said if A&M doesn't get at least one on this road swing, the game at surging South Carolina appearing to be the more winnable of the 2. (Next Up: 2/21 @South Carolina)


59. Illinois (RPI 44: 17-9, 7-6) Best Wins: NC vs. Baylor, Maryland, @Michigan St., Michigan. Worst Losses: @Nebraska, @Minnesota, @Michigan, @Miami. The win on the neutral court vs. Baylor may be the saving grace for the Illini. One of the more interesting games of the weekend coming p vs. the Spartans on Saturday. (Next Up: 2/22 Michigan St.)

60. St. John's (RPI 41: 16-9 6-7) Best Wins: Providence (twice), @Xavier, @Syracuse, St. Mary's. Worst Losses: @DePaul, @Creighton, @Seton Hall. St. John's went 3-6 in the month of January with 2 of those wins being their biggest 2 of the season sweeping Providence. They may have to finish the sweep Xavier as well in the upcoming homestand to feel real good about their chances (Next Up: 2/21 Seton Hall)

61. Georgia (RPI 40: 16-9, 7-6) Best Wins: @ Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Florida. Worst Losses: @Georgia Tech, NC vs. Minnesota, South Carolina (twice), Auburn. Georgia gets a lot of credit for a strong OOC when you dig deeper their only 2 OOC wins versus teams with a pulse were Seton Hall and @ Kansas St. nothing to sneeze at but it's not like they knocked off Kansas or Duke. To counter that the Bulldogs took their 5th questionable loss on Tuesday with South Carolina finishing the season sweep. Interesting road trip for UGA now at Alabama and Ole Miss. (Next Up: 2/21 @Alabama)

62. Cincinnati (RPI 52: 17-9, 8-5) Best Wins: San Diego St., SMU (twice), @NC State, Uconn, Temple. Worst Losses: @East Carolina, @Nebraska, Tulane. When you have the kind of solid OOC wins the Bearcats do a few toe stubs are ok, but they are starting to pile up as Cincy creeps closer to their 10th loss on their current 3 game losing streak. Each of the next 3 are against RPI 150+ and are all of the "can't lose" variety. (Next Up: 2/21 @Houston)

63. N.C. State (RPI 47: 15-11, 6-7) Best Wins: Duke, @ Louisville, Boise St., Pitt. Bad Losses: @Wake Forest, @Miami, @Purdue. The first appearance of an 11 loss squad on the BW, but also a team with 2 really very top tier wins. The #4 SOS in the country but they can't afford any more bad losses. (Next Up: 2/21 Virginia Tech)

64. Purdue (RPI 58: 18-9, 10-4) Best Wins: Indiana (twice), Ohio St., Iowa, N.C. State, Worst Losses: NC. vs. Kansas St., North Florida, @ Vandy, Gardner-Webb. Purdue got the biggest win in the country knowcking off Indidana to complete the season sweep. The Boilermakers are still recovering from a bad December stretch where they dropped 3 of their 4 terrible losses, but they have now won 7 of 8. They have a week off now to prepare for a can't lose game ahead of the final 3 of the season all against likely NCAA tournament teams. (Next Up: 2/26 Rutgers)

65. Iowa (RPI 59: 16-10, 7-6) Best Wins: @North Carolina, @Maryland, Ohio St. (twice). Worst Losses: @Northwestern, Minnesota, @Purdue, NC vs. Syracuse. The Hawkeyes beat Rutgers Thursday night to end a nightmare 2 game slide of their worst 2 losses of the season against Northwestern and Minnesota. They have another can't lose game up next on the road at Nebraska and even with the great win @UNC still need to keep piling up wins to stay above .500 in conference play. (Next Up: 2/22 @Nebraska)

66. Boise St. (RPI 38: 17-7, 9-4) Best Wins: San Diego St., Colorado St., @ St. Mary's. Worst Losses: @Fresno St., Utah St., NC vs. Loyola Marymount. The Broncos have just as many losses outside of the top 100 as wins inside of it (3). That's not a very good ratio. They did have a nice sneaky good road win at UNLV on Wednesday night to rebound from the bad loss to Fresno St. The remaining schedule (4 games against RPI 140+, 1 game @SDSU) suggest a likely 4-1 finish, 21-8 record. If that is the case the Broncos may need to beat Colorado St. again in the semis of the MWC tournament to secure an at large. (Next Up: 2/21 Nevada)

67. UCLA (RPI 45: 16-11, 8-6) Best Wins: Utah, Stanford (twice), Oregon, Oregon St. Worst Losses: @ Colorado, @Alabama, @Oregon St., @Oregon, @Cal, @Arizona St. The Bruins can't win on the road and it may cost them a spot in the NCAA tournament. Lucky for them their last road game is this weekend before finishing the regular season with 3 straight games at home that are very winnable. The Bruins are on a direct path for a 19-12 record and an RPI around 45. That is the quintessential bubble profile and would put them right on the cut line as the bubble begins to shrink with bid stealers. I still think they are the 3rd best profile out of the Pac 12 at this point. UCLA could erase almost all doubt with a road win against one of the best teams in the country @ Arizona this weekend. (Next Up: 2/21 @Arizona)

68. Pitt (RPI: 49: 16-10, 6-7) Good Wins: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Syracuse, NC vs. Kansas St. Worst Losses: @Virginia Tech, @Hawaii, @NC State. This is a classic case of don't be too mesmerized by the quality of the top wins- although all 3 (ND, UNC, Syr) look great on the resume they are the only 3 top 100 wins all season. Being in the ACC will afford lots of opportunities to forget about a loss at Virginia Tech and they have taken advantage of a couple of those opportunities. The remaining schedule is very manageable and winning out or 4-1 is not asking too much. Toughest game left is Saturday at Syracuse. (Next Up: 2/21 @Syracuse)

---------------------- The Bubble Bursts Here

69. LSU (RPI 54: 18-8, 7-6) Best Wins: @West Virginia, UMass, Georgia, @Ole Miss, @Florida, @Alabama. Worst Losses: @Missouri, @Miss St., Auburn. A win vs. West Virginia and UMass in December can't carry you forever and LSU is getting to that point. LSU also started SEC play strong with wins over Ole Miss and Georgia but with 2 losses to Texas A&M since they need to get back on track quickly to erase 3 bad conference losses and a conference record that is getting ugly for the SEC. The schedule sets up well for a good finish to potentially get to 11 wins in conference play but it needs to start this weekend. (Next Up: 2/21 Florida)

---