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Ranking the SEC bubble teams (2/6)
Posted on 2/6/15 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 2/6/15 at 12:44 pm
Sigh. Since I last did this thread, every team has played three games, and with the exception of Ole Miss, every bubble team has either done nothing to help their standing or flat-out hurt it.
Locks: Kentucky, Arkansas
1. Georgia (LW 2 RPI 25 SOS 18)
Losing at Kentucky is expected, but losing at South Carolina hurts a little. It's understandable considering Georgia's best inside presence was out with a concussion, but it still hurts a bit. Their 0-3 record vs. the Top 25, 2-5 record vs. the Top 50, and lack of road/neutral wins keep them from being safely in despite their great RPI and SOS.
Next 3: Tennessee, at Texas A&M, Auburn
The home games are must wins. Lose one of them and Georgia falls closer to the cut-line. The A&M game is an opportunity for Georgia to get their first real quality road win. That'd be big for them.
2. Ole Miss (LW 5, RPI 41, SOS 41)
Having won 5 out of its last 6, Ole Miss has played itself onto the right side of the bubble for now. They are still a weird case with three of their best four RPI wins coming away from home and their two bad losses both coming at home. But their 2-2 record against the Top 25 and 3-3 record against the Top 50 are both solid for a bubble team.
Next 3: at Auburn, at Florida, Arkansas
Win two of the next three and you're golden. Drop two and you're feeling the heat.
3. LSU (LW 1 RPI 51 SOS 94)
LSU's wins and record against the Top 50 and Top 100 are still the most impressive of all the SEC bubble teams, but the bad losses are starting to pile up. You can't lose to Auburn on your home floor. You just can't. On top of that, LSU's SOS is ugly right now. They need to get the ship turned around fast, or else they'll slip to the wrong side of the bubble.
Next 3: Alabama, Kentucky, at Tennessee
Beating Kentucky would remove all bubble doubt. If LSU can find a way to beat Kentucky, they could afford to split the other two. LSU really needs to win two of the next three to feel good about themselves.
4. Texas A&M (LW 3 RPI 32 SOS 60)
Their resume is pretty much the same as the last time I made this thread. Very thin on good wins but a great computer profile. With LSU falling out of the Top 50, they have zero Top 50 RPI wins. They only have 2 Top 100 wins (2-6). Their RPI is keeping them in the discussion, but it won't stay that high if they can't get some good wins soon.
Next 3: at Missouri, Georgia, Florida
They really need to win all three of these games. They can't afford adding a bad loss to their schedule, nor can they afford losing to Georgia or Florida and lose opportunities to improve their record vs. the Top 100 at home.
5. Alabama (LW 4 RPI 68 SOS 43)
Pretty much the same story as A&M but with a worse RPI. The record against the Top 100 isn't pretty (3-7), although they don't have bad losses. Losing to Florida at home stung. However, their win over UCLA keeps getting more impressive, and their SEC schedule was front-loaded, allowing for a possible end-of-season run. As of now, though, they're easily on the wrong side of the bubble.
Next 3: at LSU, at Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Right now, Alabama really needs to win every game. None of the games left on their schedule are unwinnable, and 8-2 the rest of the way is what they need to have a realistic chance on Selection Sunday. At LSU is one of the hardest games on their schedule, but it's one that Alabama could really use.
Honorable mention: Florida and Tennessee are both not really on the bubble and would need a miraculous end-of-season run to get into the conversation. It's possible, but not likely.
Locks: Kentucky, Arkansas
1. Georgia (LW 2 RPI 25 SOS 18)
Losing at Kentucky is expected, but losing at South Carolina hurts a little. It's understandable considering Georgia's best inside presence was out with a concussion, but it still hurts a bit. Their 0-3 record vs. the Top 25, 2-5 record vs. the Top 50, and lack of road/neutral wins keep them from being safely in despite their great RPI and SOS.
Next 3: Tennessee, at Texas A&M, Auburn
The home games are must wins. Lose one of them and Georgia falls closer to the cut-line. The A&M game is an opportunity for Georgia to get their first real quality road win. That'd be big for them.
2. Ole Miss (LW 5, RPI 41, SOS 41)
Having won 5 out of its last 6, Ole Miss has played itself onto the right side of the bubble for now. They are still a weird case with three of their best four RPI wins coming away from home and their two bad losses both coming at home. But their 2-2 record against the Top 25 and 3-3 record against the Top 50 are both solid for a bubble team.
Next 3: at Auburn, at Florida, Arkansas
Win two of the next three and you're golden. Drop two and you're feeling the heat.
3. LSU (LW 1 RPI 51 SOS 94)
LSU's wins and record against the Top 50 and Top 100 are still the most impressive of all the SEC bubble teams, but the bad losses are starting to pile up. You can't lose to Auburn on your home floor. You just can't. On top of that, LSU's SOS is ugly right now. They need to get the ship turned around fast, or else they'll slip to the wrong side of the bubble.
Next 3: Alabama, Kentucky, at Tennessee
Beating Kentucky would remove all bubble doubt. If LSU can find a way to beat Kentucky, they could afford to split the other two. LSU really needs to win two of the next three to feel good about themselves.
4. Texas A&M (LW 3 RPI 32 SOS 60)
Their resume is pretty much the same as the last time I made this thread. Very thin on good wins but a great computer profile. With LSU falling out of the Top 50, they have zero Top 50 RPI wins. They only have 2 Top 100 wins (2-6). Their RPI is keeping them in the discussion, but it won't stay that high if they can't get some good wins soon.
Next 3: at Missouri, Georgia, Florida
They really need to win all three of these games. They can't afford adding a bad loss to their schedule, nor can they afford losing to Georgia or Florida and lose opportunities to improve their record vs. the Top 100 at home.
5. Alabama (LW 4 RPI 68 SOS 43)
Pretty much the same story as A&M but with a worse RPI. The record against the Top 100 isn't pretty (3-7), although they don't have bad losses. Losing to Florida at home stung. However, their win over UCLA keeps getting more impressive, and their SEC schedule was front-loaded, allowing for a possible end-of-season run. As of now, though, they're easily on the wrong side of the bubble.
Next 3: at LSU, at Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Right now, Alabama really needs to win every game. None of the games left on their schedule are unwinnable, and 8-2 the rest of the way is what they need to have a realistic chance on Selection Sunday. At LSU is one of the hardest games on their schedule, but it's one that Alabama could really use.
Honorable mention: Florida and Tennessee are both not really on the bubble and would need a miraculous end-of-season run to get into the conversation. It's possible, but not likely.
5
Posted on 2/6/15 at 12:45 pm to GatorsGators
Why is Alabama up there
Posted on 2/6/15 at 12:46 pm to GatorsGators
You are being very generous calling Alabama a bubble team.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 12:47 pm to GatorsGators
Remove Alabama RIGHT NOW. Bill Battle doesn't need to see things like this.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 12:49 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
lack of road/neutral wins
nearly a quarter of our wins have been on the road, FWIW.
We may not make the tourney, idk..but it absolutely certainly won't be for lack of road wins.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 12:58 pm to GatorsGators
everyone is so hit or miss (i'm including us in that) that it's still hard to rank imo.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 1:01 pm to sandman24
I gave my reasoning for having Alabama in there in the OP. 
No bad losses. They've already played the majority of their difficult SEC games, and their schedule opens up to the point that they could conceivably go 7-2 the rest of the way and play their way in.
No bad losses. They've already played the majority of their difficult SEC games, and their schedule opens up to the point that they could conceivably go 7-2 the rest of the way and play their way in.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 1:02 pm to WG_Dawg
No good road wins, though. Kansas State is your best win away from home with an RPI of 95.
Posted on 2/6/15 at 1:03 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
I gave my reasoning for having Alabama in there in the OP.
No bad losses. They've already played the majority of their difficult SEC games, and their schedule opens up to the point that they could conceivably go 7-2 the rest of the way and play their way in.
Yea, we are totally going to be 18-10 and 8-7 in the league going into the Vandy, Ole Miss, A&M stretch to end the year. Battle will bring back Grant, we will find the worst way possible to blow it and we will go back to the NIT.
And we will continue to suck forever and ever amen.
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