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Posted on 12/18/14 at 3:31 pm to Kentucker
quote:What!? An article using questionable (at best) methodologies and coming to a preconceived conclusion that satisfies the authors agenda. On the slate website no less!
About the clown author of your first link:
I'm shocked!!!
Posted on 12/18/14 at 3:39 pm to scrooster
I have found these types of projections are almost always very wrong.
Posted on 12/18/14 at 3:44 pm to Kentucker
quote:
I'd recommend you take more seriously the UN's and Census Bureau's methodologies over random author's who have personal agendas to satisfy.
I've cited several sources. The problem is most normal people have been hearing this "population bomb" for so long they can't give it up. Forecasting the future population is uncertain but the global population growth has slowed down.
LINK
"If there's a country where you're a bit off and a bit too high, and another where you're a bit too low, then the population number evens out," he said.
That helps explain why the UN's projections are relatively consistent with other recent population figures for 2050.
Demographers say there is little reason to anticipate a population bomb or doomsday situation. In fact, the population growth rate has already started to slow, and this downward trend is projected to continue through 2050.
This post was edited on 12/18/14 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 12/18/14 at 5:33 pm to scrooster
quote:
quote: (worldometers) Birthrates - Deathrates - RealTime
This link indicates an annual net gain of about 80 million people on earth. That's 800 million every decade and a billion every 12 1/2 years. Worldometers is a credible site, IMO.
This post was edited on 12/18/14 at 7:14 pm
Posted on 12/18/14 at 5:41 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
I've cited several sources. The problem is most normal people have been hearing this "population bomb" for so long they can't give it up.
I don't know what you mean by "population bomb." I think of the Baby Boomer generation as a population bomb, a sudden and dramatic increase in the U. S. birth rate following World War II.
The 20th century alone shows an increasing rate of population expansion worldwide. There is no evidence of a slowdown. Please see the Worldometers link in Scrooster's post.
Posted on 12/18/14 at 6:04 pm to Kentucker
His link shows nothing about the population growth rates.. I've posted multiple links showing the population growth rate is slowing.
Even the UN "medium" projection shows a slowing growth rate in the future. While the population is growing, the rate of growth is slowing and will continue to slow even more until it reaches an apex.
Even the UN "medium" projection shows a slowing growth rate in the future. While the population is growing, the rate of growth is slowing and will continue to slow even more until it reaches an apex.
quote:
Globally, the growth rate of the human population has been declining since peaking in 1962 and 1963 at 2.20% per annum. In 2009, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.
This post was edited on 12/18/14 at 6:30 pm
Posted on 12/18/14 at 6:43 pm to scrooster
A virus will do the trick.......or religion.
Posted on 12/18/14 at 6:52 pm to RogerTheShrubber
If the growth rate slows to 0 in 2050 that leaves us at 10 billion or so.
Posted on 12/18/14 at 7:00 pm to scrooster
pop dat population cherry, yo.
Posted on 12/18/14 at 7:07 pm to MIZ_COU
quote:
If the growth rate slows to 0 in 2050 that leaves us at 10 billion or so.
If we begin to experience negative growth afterwards, it will begin to contract which I believe will happen. People no longer need large families, birth control will be widespread. The average age will increase dramatically.
Posted on 12/18/14 at 7:10 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
The number of people added to the population each year—79.3 million—has been consistent for nearly a decade. Since the world population is larger each year, of course, this consistent increment equates to a slow fall in the annual growth rate.
This quote is from WorldWatch, one of the better links you've cited. I think it explains a lot of the confusion many of the bloggers you've cited have with demographics. It's a short period and does not indicate the true nature of population increases, which can be seen if we look at the entire 20th century, for example.
quote:
Even the UN "medium" projection shows a slowing growth rate in the future. While the population is growing, the rate of growth is slowing and will continue to slow even more until it reaches an apex
The UN practices demographic science. Estimates are not based on just one or even a few trends. They are also not written in stone. Rather, they are made using the best and current evidence, including past trends that can be substantiated by hard facts.
An analogy:
If you're familiar with retail practices, sales projections for products are based on previous quarters', seasons' and years' sales. These figures show whether a product is still popular and selling well or if it has peaked and is declining in popularity. The amount of production depends heavily on knowing those figures.
Similarly, projections of population growth depend on knowing past trends in nations, regions and areas of the world. All projections using this methodology indicate continued rapid growth of the world's population.
That's why the UN has repeatedly ramped its estimates upward in the past five years. They see the past trends, the application of medical technology in parts of the world that had high death rates and better food production around the world. All of these say that rapid population growth will remain the trend for the rest of this century.
This post was edited on 12/18/14 at 7:13 pm
Posted on 12/18/14 at 7:29 pm to Kentucker
quote:
The number of people added to the population each year—79.3 million—has been consistent for nearly a decade. Since the world population is larger each year, of course, this consistent increment equates to a slow fall in the annual growth rate.
This quote is from WorldWatch, one of the better links you've cited. I think it explains a lot of the confusion many of the bloggers you've cited have with demographics. It's a short period and does not indicate the true nature of population increases, which can be seen if we look at the entire 20th century, for example.
There is no confusion. The growth rate has fallen and will most likely continue to fall in the coming years. Even the UN's moderate estimate shows it leveling off
Even their own data support the fact that the rate of growth is slowing, which you disputed.. LINK
quote:
Those trends show an exponential increase in the rate of human population growth.
And no, they don't. they show the exact opposite.
Here's the three UN scenarios.
the only estimate that doesn't show the population beginning to drop in this century is the high estimate, which is highly unlikely.
Posted on 12/18/14 at 7:34 pm to RogerTheShrubber
Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I just don't trust the bloggers you like to make objective estimates.
I'll stick with the science that the UN and the Census Bureau employ.
Good conversation, though.
I'll stick with the science that the UN and the Census Bureau employ.
Good conversation, though.
Posted on 12/18/14 at 8:01 pm to Kentucker
quote:
Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I just don't trust the bloggers you like to make objective estimates.
Well, the UN data shows the population growth rate is falling. I think that's scientific and accurate and doesn't rely on bloggers to interpret. You can click on tabs and see for yourself.
Posted on 12/18/14 at 10:40 pm to Kentucker
quote:
Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I just don't trust the bloggers you like to make objective estimates. I'll stick with the science that the UN and the Census Bureau employ. Good conversation, though.
The UN is saying population growth is slowing...
Even in the most extreme estimate, the slope is gradually decreasing, meaning the rate is decreasing. How is this still a debate?
Posted on 12/18/14 at 11:46 pm to scrooster
It will not pop. It is rapidly approaching a plateau.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 8:16 am to scrooster
It looks like it's time to get rid of developing countries.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 9:48 am to RollTears
quote:
It looks like it's time to get rid of developing countries.
Well ... you've sort of hit the heart of the matter.
Understand, we're paying people to breed - that's the simply bottom-line.
The industrialized countries looking at developing countries as emerging markets where more of their goods and services might be in demand after a given period of time ... but all this is a waste of time. We're really just paying people to breed. Governments are providing them food and medicine for free, with the hope that corporations will benefit, with the hope that corporations will make more jobs and pay more taxes ... and look where it is getting us.
Ever seen firearms swarm a piece of dead meat?
That's what will eventually happen ... this earth is a piece of dead meat.
Posted on 12/19/14 at 12:04 pm to scrooster
quote:
Ever seen firearms swarm a piece of dead meat?
No. Because they can't move themselves. Liberal POS.
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