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Russian economy collapsing?
Posted on 12/16/14 at 7:42 am
Posted on 12/16/14 at 7:42 am
If it does continue to tank, what will be the international fall out ?
They blame us(America) because of sanctions over Crimea.
They hold Large parts of Europe by the nuts due to control of natural gas and oil.
Would Putin mix it up by starting a conflict with more of their neighbors to redirect the anger of Russian citizens?
They blame us(America) because of sanctions over Crimea.
They hold Large parts of Europe by the nuts due to control of natural gas and oil.
Would Putin mix it up by starting a conflict with more of their neighbors to redirect the anger of Russian citizens?
Posted on 12/16/14 at 8:35 am to Old Sarge
i find the whole situation to be an fascinating case study. the guy is their Ronald Reagan and while Russian nationalism is at an all time high, their economy is collapsing.
The whole thing is a very interesting geopolitical study into capitalism, communism, corruption, and foreign relations. All ending in complete failure.
The whole thing is a very interesting geopolitical study into capitalism, communism, corruption, and foreign relations. All ending in complete failure.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 8:53 am to Old Sarge
Lulz at Putin. With Russian economy imploding he won't be so popular among his people anymore.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:30 am to Old Sarge
Supposedly OPEC's crashing of the crude oil market is to target Russia, with America's fracking being secondary. That's where my understanding ends.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 11:03 am to Old Sarge
Putin didn't think there would be consequences for his invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. and Europe decided to take severe actions against Russia.
The effects are just now becoming extreme. Putin is a dictator in mind and would like to be in practice. It will be interesting to see in what direction the sanctions cause him to go and whether Russian citizens will remain loyal to him.
The effects are just now becoming extreme. Putin is a dictator in mind and would like to be in practice. It will be interesting to see in what direction the sanctions cause him to go and whether Russian citizens will remain loyal to him.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 11:19 am to Old Sarge
CPA told me today it will be totally ruined soon.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 12:25 pm to Phat Phil
quote:
Lulz at Putin. With Russian economy imploding he won't be so popular among his people anymore.
Don't underestimate how unifying hate and anger can be. All he has to do to protect his skin is blame it on the west. I remember the Cold War very well, it can happen again in a second.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 6:09 pm to Old Sarge
Who is buying ISIS controlled oil? Supposedly they are well funded through the sale of hundreds of millions of dollars in bootleg oil from areas they control.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 6:13 pm to Old Sarge
So I could buy a Russian bride for what? Like $3.50?
Posted on 12/16/14 at 7:18 pm to 3nOut
quote:
The whole thing is a very interesting geopolitical study into capitalism, communism, corruption, and foreign relations. All ending in complete failure.
Not sure what part of capitalism is failing here. Russia has a very statist economy. Statoil, the main Russian oil company is state owned. Russia is getting pincered by financial sanctions and the price of oil, which funds 50% of their tax revenues. They have very little manufacturing and rely on raw materials, primarily oil, for trade. Because oil is dropping faster than Vanderbilt's football fortunes, that contributes to the ruble's hyperinflation.
There are nations that learned from the 80s oil crisis and nations that didn't. Mexico went heavy into manufacturing to diversify, and Russia didn't. This is the result.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 7:43 pm to TheDrunkenTigah
With fracking cracking and russia collapsing, the saudis and opec will stand alone again in dominating the oil market. Saudis have a huge cash pile and can wait it out. They can continue to flood the market while demand is dropping as economies move back to recession. Its a play right out of Rockefeller's play book.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 7:49 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
Not sure what part of capitalism is failing here. Russia has a very statist econom
I misspoke. capitalism did not fail, Russia's "attempt" of running it while still being complete statists is the failure.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 7:51 pm to autodd03
quote:
the saudis and opec will stand alone again in dominating the oil market.
With the exception of the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, none of the other main OPEC nations can produce oil cheaper than US Fracking. The Saudis are trying to price out US shale and Russia, but the side effect is going to be the breakup of OPEC.
Not to mention the fact that the last time there was an oil glut, the Saudis had OPEC cut production down to nothing and STILL couldn't get the price to rise. They just got to watch their economy crash and not recover for 20 years. OPEC only controls 40% of the worlds oil, and while that can be used to lower the price some, when you have runaway supply from non-OPEC nations, there isn't much they can do to stop the price drop and they know it. They've decided to keep pumping because they know no one else is going to stop, and they need the money, no matter what they say.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:00 pm to KSGamecock
quote:
Statoil, the main Russian oil company is state owned.
Statoil is an IOC out of Norway. I think you mean Rosneft?
Posted on 12/16/14 at 9:21 pm to Old Sarge
This is a two pronged approach to eliminate a problem.
1. Impose western sanctions, eliminating Russia's ability to borrow money from the west.
2. Flood the crude oil market, depleting the price, and crippling Russia's oil export economy.
With oil income cut in half and Russia's inability to borrow from the west to make up for the deficit, Putin looks like he's overplayed his hand. The Ruble crashes against the dollar, hyperinflation ensues, Russian people revolt.
At least that seems like the end game here. There is still the Russian oligarchy to consider in all of this. When they are finally fed up, then the regime will likely fall.
Pretty well laid plan IF it all comes together. The hope at the very least is probably to cripple Russia's burgeoning military buildup. Pushing back their hopes for becoming a world power for at least another decade.
Looks to me like Putin was playing checkers all along. I only wonder what kind of deal we cut with the Saudis to get them to flood the crude market. If crude prices linger at where they are now, there is still a profit margin in fracking, shale, etc. any lower, and it starts really hurting our burgeoning industry.
This is all very interesting, the end game looks pretty cut and dried. Where it actually ends up will be the interesting thing to watch.
1. Impose western sanctions, eliminating Russia's ability to borrow money from the west.
2. Flood the crude oil market, depleting the price, and crippling Russia's oil export economy.
With oil income cut in half and Russia's inability to borrow from the west to make up for the deficit, Putin looks like he's overplayed his hand. The Ruble crashes against the dollar, hyperinflation ensues, Russian people revolt.
At least that seems like the end game here. There is still the Russian oligarchy to consider in all of this. When they are finally fed up, then the regime will likely fall.
Pretty well laid plan IF it all comes together. The hope at the very least is probably to cripple Russia's burgeoning military buildup. Pushing back their hopes for becoming a world power for at least another decade.
Looks to me like Putin was playing checkers all along. I only wonder what kind of deal we cut with the Saudis to get them to flood the crude market. If crude prices linger at where they are now, there is still a profit margin in fracking, shale, etc. any lower, and it starts really hurting our burgeoning industry.
This is all very interesting, the end game looks pretty cut and dried. Where it actually ends up will be the interesting thing to watch.
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:12 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
They blame us(America) because of sanctions over Crimea.
Good
Posted on 12/16/14 at 10:35 pm to lsugradman
Yes, my bad. Got all turned about on that.
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