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SEC Projections - UGA 24% chance of winning the SEC...
Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:03 am
Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:03 am
Per SB Nation's number's guru Bill Connely. Great article LINK
Here's the tl;dr version as it pertains to UGA:
SEC East Race
Georgia is in the clubhouse at 6-2 and owns the tie-breaker with its win over Missouri. So Mizzou has to win at Tennessee (probability: 39%) and Arkansas (57%) to stay ahead. Missouri goes 1-1 or 0-2, and Georgia goes to Atlanta.
Overall odds: Georgia 77.9%, Missouri 22.1%.
Here are the odds for all possible title games:
Alabama vs. Georgia: Alabama 70.7%
Alabama vs. Missouri: Alabama 92.5%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia: Ole Miss 63.9%
Ole Miss vs. Missouri: Ole Miss 89.2%
Mississippi State vs. Georgia: MSU 58.7%
Mississippi State vs. Missouri: 86.4%
Combine that all together, and you get the following odds for winning the conference:
1. Alabama 60% (last week: 40%)
2. Georgia 24% (last week: 10%)
3. Ole Miss 9% (last week: 4%)
4. Mississippi State 5% (last week: 33%)
5. Missouri 2% (last week: 4%)
As we head toward Championship Week, we're looking pretty clearly at an Alabama-Georgia title game, which is what a hell of a lot of people picked from the start.
Waiting on Missouri to lose so you can win the East isn't the most guaranteed proposition in the world. Still, it's an almost two-in-three chance that it's Bama-Georgia. And from there, it's a better than two-in-three chance that Bama will win.
Here's the tl;dr version as it pertains to UGA:
SEC East Race
Georgia is in the clubhouse at 6-2 and owns the tie-breaker with its win over Missouri. So Mizzou has to win at Tennessee (probability: 39%) and Arkansas (57%) to stay ahead. Missouri goes 1-1 or 0-2, and Georgia goes to Atlanta.
Overall odds: Georgia 77.9%, Missouri 22.1%.
Here are the odds for all possible title games:
Alabama vs. Georgia: Alabama 70.7%
Alabama vs. Missouri: Alabama 92.5%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia: Ole Miss 63.9%
Ole Miss vs. Missouri: Ole Miss 89.2%
Mississippi State vs. Georgia: MSU 58.7%
Mississippi State vs. Missouri: 86.4%
Combine that all together, and you get the following odds for winning the conference:
1. Alabama 60% (last week: 40%)
2. Georgia 24% (last week: 10%)
3. Ole Miss 9% (last week: 4%)
4. Mississippi State 5% (last week: 33%)
5. Missouri 2% (last week: 4%)
As we head toward Championship Week, we're looking pretty clearly at an Alabama-Georgia title game, which is what a hell of a lot of people picked from the start.
Waiting on Missouri to lose so you can win the East isn't the most guaranteed proposition in the world. Still, it's an almost two-in-three chance that it's Bama-Georgia. And from there, it's a better than two-in-three chance that Bama will win.
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Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:12 am to DawgFARKer
It would all depend on which version of this Jekyll and Hyde team shows up. The UGA team that showed up at Missouri or vs Auburn could easily beat Alabama or anyone else in the nation. The team that showed up in Jax or for the Tennessee game would lose by 40 in the SECCG.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:15 am to DawgFARKer
If we get to go to the SECCG, I like our odds of winning it much more than what is shown here. Even without Gurley, I think we are hitting the end run in stride with few other injuries for a change(Unless GT cuts our guys up with their low blocks, that is.)
Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:16 am to VADawg
Agreed, VADawg - I also would like our chances more against Ole Miss as opposed to Miss St IF Bama loses the Iron Bowl (which isn't gonna happen).
Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:41 am to DawgFARKer
There's also an improbable but possible chance of no SEC teams in the playoffs:
1. MSU loses to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.
2. Alabama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
3. Georgia loses to GT.
4. Missouri loses to UT or Arkansas.
5. Georgia beats Alabama in the SECCG.
6. Georgia and Bama would both have 3 losses at that point. MSU would have 2 losses but no conference championship.
7. If Oregon, FSU, TCU and OSU all win out, no SEC team in the playoffs. Hell, it could happen with a 2 loss SECC although objectively I would have to put a 2 loss SECC in over OSU.
1. MSU loses to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.
2. Alabama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
3. Georgia loses to GT.
4. Missouri loses to UT or Arkansas.
5. Georgia beats Alabama in the SECCG.
6. Georgia and Bama would both have 3 losses at that point. MSU would have 2 losses but no conference championship.
7. If Oregon, FSU, TCU and OSU all win out, no SEC team in the playoffs. Hell, it could happen with a 2 loss SECC although objectively I would have to put a 2 loss SECC in over OSU.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:49 am to DawgFARKer
Alabama is the worst matchup of all the West teams for UGA. They've got the size and speed on offense to do exactly what Florida did with the added caveat they can complete a forward pass. Against a team that runs more sideline to sideline, like Auburn, you get a game like Saturday night. It would take UGA's best performance of the season and a couple of turnovers/lucky breaks for UGA to beat Alabama.
All moot anyway unless Mizzou loses.
All moot anyway unless Mizzou loses.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 10:59 am to DawgFARKer
That may be the odds of UGA winning the SECCG if we are lucky enough to get in the SECCG but right now we only have a hope and a prayer of getting into the SECCG because of the bad call by the ref on the 53 yard TD run by Gurley in the South Carolina game.
Had the ref made the correct call then UGA would already be in the SECCG and we wouldn't be sitting around hoping and praying that Missou WHO WE BEAT loses one of its two remaining SEC games.
That's a fact and no one should deny it!
frickIN' SEC REFS!!!
Had the ref made the correct call then UGA would already be in the SECCG and we wouldn't be sitting around hoping and praying that Missou WHO WE BEAT loses one of its two remaining SEC games.
That's a fact and no one should deny it!
frickIN' SEC REFS!!!
This post was edited on 11/19/14 at 11:07 am
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:05 am to DawgfaninCa
quote:
right now we only have a hope and a prayer of getting into the SECCG
Holy shite you could use some help in the reading comprehension department. They're giving us a 78% chance of getting to the SECCG. That's not a hope and prayer.
Lay off the refs. We had our shot and blew it on 1st and 4. When we failed to capitalize on that, we lost the right to blame the refs for the loss.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:35 am to UGAalum08
quote:
Holy shite you could use some help in the reading comprehension department. They're giving us a 78% chance of getting to the SECCG. That's not a hope and prayer.
They can give us a 78% chance of getting into the SECCG but that's all bullshite and meaningless!
The FACT is we have to hope and pray that Missou WHO WE BEAT loses one of it's next two remaining SEC games in order for UGA to get in the SECCG because of the bad call by the ref in the South Carolina game which cost us the win.
quote:
Lay off the refs. We had our shot and blew it on 1st and 4. When we failed to capitalize on that, we lost the right to blame the refs for the loss.
You are full of it!
We had the win but the bad call by the ref took it away from us.
Had the ref made the correct call then we wouldn't had been put in the position of having to score another TD in order to win the game.
So no, I'm NOT going to lay off the refs.
Now I have to sit around and hope that Missou WHO WE BEAT loses one of its next two remaining SEC games all because some dumb arse SEC ref made a bad call that cost us the South Carolina game.
It's not the team or coaches fault that we lost the South Carolina game.
I'm putting the blame where it belongs.
It was the ref's fault!!!
What would our situation be right now had the ref made the correct call?
If you don't like me telling the truth then you can go frick yourself!!!
This post was edited on 11/19/14 at 11:43 am
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:38 am to DawgfaninCa
quote:
We had the win but the bad call by the ref took it away from us.
Worst blown call since 1980!!!!
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:39 am to DawgfaninCa
quote:
Missou WHO WE BEAT
and they beat both the teams we lost to..
Posted on 11/19/14 at 11:55 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
and they beat both the teams we lost to..
That's irrelevant.
We beat Missou and would already be in the SECCG if it wasn't for the ref making a bad call that cost us the South Carolina game.
I can accept the team not getting in the SECCG because of their own mistakes but I'm not going to sit here having to hope that Missou WHO WE BEAT loses one of its two remaining SEC games without reminding y'all who is really to blame for UGA losing the South Carolina game.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:00 pm to DawgFARKer
I think our chances are better than that if we make it. Bama is a very good team but they are not dominant like they have been in years past. I'd think Bama would be 4-6 point favorites over us at best.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:10 pm to DawgfaninCa
quote:
That's irrelevant.
It's extremely relevant. We have 2 SEC losses, they have 1.
Should we have not gone to the SECCG in 2011 just because we lost to SC, even though they had more SEC losses?
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:14 pm to davesdawgs
quote:
There's also an improbable but possible chance of no SEC teams in the playoffs:
1. MSU loses to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.
2. Alabama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
3. Georgia loses to GT.
4. Missouri loses to UT or Arkansas.
5. Georgia beats Alabama in the SECCG.
6. Georgia and Bama would both have 3 losses at that point. MSU would have 2 losses but no conference championship.
7. If Oregon, FSU, TCU and OSU all win out, no SEC team in the playoffs. Hell, it could happen with a 2 loss SECC although objectively I would have to put a 2 loss SECC in over OSU
In this scenario, wouldn't Ole Miss go to the SECCG instead of Alabama? Irrelevant in the context of your post, but for clarity's sake I am curious.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:32 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Should we have not gone to the SECCG in 2011 just because we lost to SC, even though they had more SEC losses?
Did SC lose their chance to play in the 2011 SECCG because of a bad call by a ref?
I'll answer the question.
No, they didn't.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:42 pm to DawgfaninCa
quote:
Did SC lose their chance to play in the 2011 SECCG because of a bad call by a ref?
And that's not what cost us this year. Giving up however many points to a terrible offense is what cost us the game. If you really and truly want to blame a bad call for a loss in a game that high scoring, I'm not smart enough to explain toyou how reality works.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 12:55 pm to DawgfaninCa
Dear Lord gramps we had a bad call on teh fake punt against auburn but we still won anyway. We lost to sc because we gave up 38 points. Just like we lost to SC in '11 because we gave up 45 points.
Geez man, you don't just get to pick and choose which games count and which don't. We have 2 losses, mizz has 1. It's really not complicated.
Geez man, you don't just get to pick and choose which games count and which don't. We have 2 losses, mizz has 1. It's really not complicated.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 4:56 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Dear Lord gramps we had a bad call on teh fake punt against auburn but we still won anyway. We lost to sc because we gave up 38 points. Just like we lost to SC in '11 because we gave up 45 points.
Geez man, you don't just get to pick and choose which games count and which don't. We have 2 losses, mizz has 1. It's really not complicated.
Dear Lord, grandson, what happened in other games because of a bad call by a ref is irrelevant to what happened in the South Carolina game as a result of a bad call by a ref.
It's really that simple.
Posted on 11/19/14 at 5:08 pm to SneakyWaff1es
quote:
And that's not what cost us this year. Giving up however many points to a terrible offense is what cost us the game. If you really and truly want to blame a bad call for a loss in a game that high scoring, I'm not smart enough to explain toyou how reality works.
Apparently, you are not smart enough to know that bad call by the ref most likely cost UGA a chance to play in the SECCG and the CFP.
Right after the South Carolina game I predicted that bad call might keep us out of the SECCG and the CFP. Now unless Missou loses one of its two remaining SEC games it looks like I will be correct.
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