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re: Win % for each SEC West contender rest of season - per F+ ratings
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:59 am to Tornado Alley
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:59 am to Tornado Alley
Football outsiders. You're a stat guy. Look them up
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Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:59 am to SummerOfGeorge
Just to kind of grade some of the earlier picks (starting week 4 because before that a lot of the information has to be based on projections and not actual current season figures)
WEEK 4
Auburn 61.9% > KSU
Alabama 88% > Florida
LSU 68.1% > MSU
WEEK 5
UGA 85.3% > UT
A&M 81.4% > Arky
WEEK 6
UT 59.4% > UF
MSU 67.2% > A&M
OM 59.8% > Alabama
Auburn 65.5% > LSU
WEEK 7
Mizzou 55.9% > UGA
MSU 66.2% > Auburn
Alabama 74.2% > Arky
LSU 62.6% > UF
So, pretty solid
WEEK 4
Auburn 61.9% > KSU
Alabama 88% > Florida
LSU 68.1% > MSU
WEEK 5
UGA 85.3% > UT
A&M 81.4% > Arky
WEEK 6
UT 59.4% > UF
MSU 67.2% > A&M
OM 59.8% > Alabama
Auburn 65.5% > LSU
WEEK 7
Mizzou 55.9% > UGA
MSU 66.2% > Auburn
Alabama 74.2% > Arky
LSU 62.6% > UF
So, pretty solid
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 11:01 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:00 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Ole Miss 86.6% > LSU
quote:
Alabama 84.8% > Tennessee
So Ole Miss has a better chance of winning this weekend than Alabama?
quote:
Ole Miss 96.7% > Arkansas
rofl
quote:
Ole Miss 78.7% > State
rofl
The fact that not a single one of these percentages is under 60% makes it literally laughable.
ETA: This is honestly a garbage system.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 11:02 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:02 am to BayouBengals03
Again - look at the overall numbers for the season. Under 60% is basically a toss up, everything else plays out just about right on the money in terms of % of teams in each win % bracket winning about the % of time they are predicted to win.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:03 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
ETA: This is honestly a garbage system.
Teams 50-60% winning = 18-19 (49%)
Teams 60-70% winning = 66-40 (62%)
Teams 70-80% winning = 91-22 (81%)
Teams 80-90% winning = 88-15 (85%)
Teams 90-100 winning = 68-2 (97%)
I mean..........pretty big sample size, pretty much dead on. Of course these are all future predictions for games, those figures will change, but week of game % of victory is pretty dead on with how things play out.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 11:04 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
It's very misleading and formatted oddly.
FPI is giving you the actual chances that each team wins the game. This is weighting it in a way, seemingly unnecessarily.
I don't like it. And still disagree with some of it. Alabama is more likely to win this weekend than Ole Miss.
ETA: The fact that the 50-60 and 60-70 ranges are turning outputs that are closer to the bottom of the range kind of illustrates my whole problem with it.
There are a lot of "tossup" games in there that are rated with too high of percentages.
FPI is giving you the actual chances that each team wins the game. This is weighting it in a way, seemingly unnecessarily.
I don't like it. And still disagree with some of it. Alabama is more likely to win this weekend than Ole Miss.
ETA: The fact that the 50-60 and 60-70 ranges are turning outputs that are closer to the bottom of the range kind of illustrates my whole problem with it.
There are a lot of "tossup" games in there that are rated with too high of percentages.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 11:07 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:06 am to BayouBengals03
I think the main thing I take away from it is that if you are at 75% or above you have a really good chance of winning the game.
I would love to see ESPN's FPI % chances graded because they seem to dissapear after a game is over.
I would love to see ESPN's FPI % chances graded because they seem to dissapear after a game is over.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:08 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Auburn 79.8% > Texas A&M
Auburn % is too low.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:08 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
There are a lot of "tossup" games in there that are rated with too high of percentages.
Just glancing at it I would be agree, but the overall stats for the season bear out that teams in the 60-70% chance of winning pretty much win at a 60-70% clip and so on and so forth.
An individual game here or there may be funky looking, but overall the system has been pretty consistent.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:08 am to SummerOfGeorge
Sorry I keep editing and adding stuff.
I agree. That is not really my issue.
quote:
I think the main thing I take away from it is that if you are at 75% or above you have a really good chance of winning the game.
I agree. That is not really my issue.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:10 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
I agree. That is not really my issue.
Yea, I also think that we look at something like "62%" and kind of round it up (I know I do initially). In reality 62% is 62/100 times this team will win. That is really not some sort of large margin.
I think specifically his system seems to really, really, really like Ole Miss. I'm not sure I like them that much, but I guess we will see. Also from reading his thoughts different places I'm not sure his naked eye likes Ole Miss that much either.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 11:11 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:11 am to piggilicious
quote:
they have a nocturnal, large, semi-aquatic rodent as their coach.
pic?
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:16 am to SummerOfGeorge
It's also odd that the system considers 6/10 a tossup. I bet FPI has that game right around 50%.
Referencing the AU/UGA game.
Referencing the AU/UGA game.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 11:16 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:18 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
It's also odd that the system considers 6/10 a tossup. I bet FPI has that game right around 50%.
Referencing the AU/UGA game.
I guess the system doesn't really consider that, just from reviewing the results it seems to have played out that way. FPI has UGA as a 50.5% favorite to win over Auburn.
Like I said above, I'd really like to see FPI's results compared to their predictions.
I think these things are fascinating.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 11:20 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:19 am to SummerOfGeorge
They are certainly interesting, I'll give you that.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:20 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
They are certainly interesting, I'll give you that.
I do agree that FPI's % seem to make more sense to me on the surface. One of the reasons I'd really like to see their results.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:29 am to SummerOfGeorge
Just for fun, FPI after 3 weeks
FPI and W/L projection
SEC
1. Auburn - 27.3 (9.4 - 2.8)
2. Alabama - 25.0 (9.2 - 3.0)
3. Texas A&M - 24.9 (9.4 - 2.8)
4. Ole Miss - 22.5 (9.0 - 3.2)
5. Georgia - 21.8 (8.9 - 3.4)
6. LSU - 19.3 (7.9 - 4.1)
7. Florida - 18.2 (7.5 - 3.8)
8. Miss State - 18.1 (8.1 - 4.0)
9. South Carolina - 16.9 (8.1 - 4.2)
10. Arkansas - 14.2 (6.2 - 5.8)
11. Mizzou - 12.7 (7.7 - 4.4)
12. Tennessee - 8.4 (5.9 - 6.1)
13. Kentucky - 7.8 (6.0 - 6.0)
14. Vanderbilt - -10.6 (2.8 - 9.2)
FPI and W/L projection
SEC
1. Auburn - 27.3 (9.4 - 2.8)
2. Alabama - 25.0 (9.2 - 3.0)
3. Texas A&M - 24.9 (9.4 - 2.8)
4. Ole Miss - 22.5 (9.0 - 3.2)
5. Georgia - 21.8 (8.9 - 3.4)
6. LSU - 19.3 (7.9 - 4.1)
7. Florida - 18.2 (7.5 - 3.8)
8. Miss State - 18.1 (8.1 - 4.0)
9. South Carolina - 16.9 (8.1 - 4.2)
10. Arkansas - 14.2 (6.2 - 5.8)
11. Mizzou - 12.7 (7.7 - 4.4)
12. Tennessee - 8.4 (5.9 - 6.1)
13. Kentucky - 7.8 (6.0 - 6.0)
14. Vanderbilt - -10.6 (2.8 - 9.2)
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:30 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I think specifically his system seems to really, really, really like Ole Miss.
Yeah, his F+ ranking has OM as the No. 1 team by a large margin.
The ESPN FPI projections better match my own subjective estimates. I think there's a very low chance that we finish the regular season undefeated. But you've made a good point that ESPN isn't publishing its track record.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 11:32 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:32 am to Chawboy
quote:
Yeah, his F+ ranking has OM as the No. 1 team by a large margin.
The ESPN FPI projections better match my own subjective estimates. I think there's a very low chance that we finish the regular season undefeated. But you've made a good point that ESPN isn't publishing they're track record.
Yea - ESPN does have what the figures were overall each week though, just not the projections win % once it is gone.
The ones I noted above after 3 weeks are pretty good, though.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:39 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
The fact that not a single one of these percentages is under 60% makes it literally laughable.
depends on which side of the matchup youre looking at....
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