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What the mind can conceive, the heart does believe
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:43 pm
Posted on 10/21/14 at 3:43 pm
the team can achieve. Let's talk about how we can beat auburn.
Auburn is one of the worst passing teams in the conference and nation, they rank 13th in the conference for passing, throwing 55% completions, 10 TD's, 3 INT's and less than 200 yards a game on avg.
SC's worst defensive aspect is Pass Defense. Auburn will NOT be able to expose our secondary with consistency, they are 75th nationally. SC is 40th nationally.
SC's Top 2 RB's are > than Auburn's Top 2 RB's, HOWEVER, Auburn has a legit running QB. Auburn is #13 Nationally in Rushing Offense. South Carolina is 49th. However, Davis, Wilds, Carson and Williams are all now healthy at the same time AND we should have RG Matulis back this game.
The Key for our defense: contain Nick Marshall in the pocket, don't let him scramble, make him throw, force 2+ turnovers.
Auburn also has the #8 Red Zone Defense, but we have the #3 Red Zone Offense. Auburn has #15 Red Zone Offense and SC has #90 Red Zone Defense (b/c our defense has played like dog shite.)
Auburn has the #26 Rushing Defense, SC has the #90 Rushing Defense, but we won't be running the 3-4 against this team. Probably more 4-2-5 with even 1 safety playing short. Again, daring Marshall to throw the deep ball.
Auburn has the 39th ranked Pass Defense, SC is ranked 75th HOWEVER, the only passing team they played is Miss St. This is where we have an advantage, our passing game vs their pass defense.
When it comes to pass rush, it's pretty much a wash, Auburn doesn't allow a lot of sacks b/c they run most of the time, SC is avg in sacks allowed, but we throw a lot more than auburn. Neither team has generated a pass rush to brag about this year. However, this will benefit SC more, b/c we do throw more and they don't have a great pass rush. Our pass rush against them will not be very relevant, it will more be focused on containing Marshall or eventually pressuring him into a bad throw.
WHen it comes to turnovers, Auburns stats are better, Dylan has 6 INT's, Marshall has 3, but Dylan has twice as many passes. They've also INT's 10 passes and SC only has INT'd 4 passes. They've also forced 13 fumbles to SC's 4. They are A LOT better at forcing turnovers than SC, which will be a crucial aspect of this game. We can't have more than 1 turnover and expect to win this game, unless we win the turnover margin vs them by 3+.
Auburn is one of the worst passing teams in the conference and nation, they rank 13th in the conference for passing, throwing 55% completions, 10 TD's, 3 INT's and less than 200 yards a game on avg.
SC's worst defensive aspect is Pass Defense. Auburn will NOT be able to expose our secondary with consistency, they are 75th nationally. SC is 40th nationally.
SC's Top 2 RB's are > than Auburn's Top 2 RB's, HOWEVER, Auburn has a legit running QB. Auburn is #13 Nationally in Rushing Offense. South Carolina is 49th. However, Davis, Wilds, Carson and Williams are all now healthy at the same time AND we should have RG Matulis back this game.
The Key for our defense: contain Nick Marshall in the pocket, don't let him scramble, make him throw, force 2+ turnovers.
Auburn also has the #8 Red Zone Defense, but we have the #3 Red Zone Offense. Auburn has #15 Red Zone Offense and SC has #90 Red Zone Defense (b/c our defense has played like dog shite.)
Auburn has the #26 Rushing Defense, SC has the #90 Rushing Defense, but we won't be running the 3-4 against this team. Probably more 4-2-5 with even 1 safety playing short. Again, daring Marshall to throw the deep ball.
Auburn has the 39th ranked Pass Defense, SC is ranked 75th HOWEVER, the only passing team they played is Miss St. This is where we have an advantage, our passing game vs their pass defense.
When it comes to pass rush, it's pretty much a wash, Auburn doesn't allow a lot of sacks b/c they run most of the time, SC is avg in sacks allowed, but we throw a lot more than auburn. Neither team has generated a pass rush to brag about this year. However, this will benefit SC more, b/c we do throw more and they don't have a great pass rush. Our pass rush against them will not be very relevant, it will more be focused on containing Marshall or eventually pressuring him into a bad throw.
WHen it comes to turnovers, Auburns stats are better, Dylan has 6 INT's, Marshall has 3, but Dylan has twice as many passes. They've also INT's 10 passes and SC only has INT'd 4 passes. They've also forced 13 fumbles to SC's 4. They are A LOT better at forcing turnovers than SC, which will be a crucial aspect of this game. We can't have more than 1 turnover and expect to win this game, unless we win the turnover margin vs them by 3+.
6
Posted on 10/21/14 at 6:03 pm to CockInYourEar
Up voted ... very excellent. Good read - thanks! And I hope you're right.
I liked the subject line as well. Reminds me of an old family saying that my Dad taught me and I passed on to my kids.
What you think about, you do ... what you do, you become.
I liked the subject line as well. Reminds me of an old family saying that my Dad taught me and I passed on to my kids.
What you think about, you do ... what you do, you become.
Posted on 10/21/14 at 6:09 pm to CockInYourEar
I was gonna post something like this on tRant. You covered all the points I was gonna make
Posted on 10/21/14 at 7:35 pm to CockInYourEar
I don't know. I don't mean to dampen the mood of the thread but for the past couple of weeks all I think is "If we can't win @UK, what chance do we have of winning @AU"
You're right. We do have great RBs, but for one reason or another the running attack has been nearly abandoned multiple times this year.
AU does have a bad passing attack, and our secondary has shown some signs of life after that A&M game, but as you mentioned, they have a really good running QB. We can't stop the wildcat when we know the guy catching the snap is going to run the ball, how we'll defend the read option is beyond me.
eta: I hope you are 100% right and I am 100% wrong.
You're right. We do have great RBs, but for one reason or another the running attack has been nearly abandoned multiple times this year.
AU does have a bad passing attack, and our secondary has shown some signs of life after that A&M game, but as you mentioned, they have a really good running QB. We can't stop the wildcat when we know the guy catching the snap is going to run the ball, how we'll defend the read option is beyond me.
eta: I hope you are 100% right and I am 100% wrong.
This post was edited on 10/21/14 at 8:43 pm
Posted on 10/21/14 at 8:00 pm to CockInYourEar
Excellent write up. 
Posted on 10/22/14 at 9:06 am to CockInYourEar
good info CIYE. thanks for the post.
think it was Stinchcomb on SECN who mentioned of AU's 12 sacks, only 6 were from their D-line. EJ's been having to bring pressure from other positions to generate some rush. AU & USC rank 13 and 14 in tackles for loss so far this season.
something else that may come into play...penalties. USC's opponents, through 7 games this season, have been flagged for the most yards of anyone in the conference at 66.1 ypg. Auburn's opponents 37.8 ypg in 6 games. it will be interesting to see how things unfold at Jordan-Hare regarding composure and how the refs call the game.
Gamecocks are 4th in the SEC in Time of Possession, while Auburn sits at 10th. (31:35 to 29:47).
Auburn holds its opponents to 32% in 3rd down conversions, while Carolina sits at 39%. Tigers have had to defend 92 third down attempts (30 conversions) in 6 games with USC facing 88 third downs (35 conversions) in 7 games.
Gamecock offense ranks 3rd in the SEC in 1st downs per game at 25.1 behind Texas A/M (25.5) & Mississippi State (25.3). Auburn ranks 5th at 24.7.
somewhat of a surprise might be how Carolina's offense ranks vs Malzahn and Auburn in "long scrimmage plays"...
SEC Stats
you're right in that turnovers will dictate how Carolina will fare in this game. Gamecocks will have to create opportunities and momentum swings in order to have a chance to steal a win. Auburn has gained 13 through 6 games while USC just 8 in 7 games. AU sits at +4 and USC at -2 on the season.
quote:
When it comes to pass rush, it's pretty much a wash
think it was Stinchcomb on SECN who mentioned of AU's 12 sacks, only 6 were from their D-line. EJ's been having to bring pressure from other positions to generate some rush. AU & USC rank 13 and 14 in tackles for loss so far this season.
something else that may come into play...penalties. USC's opponents, through 7 games this season, have been flagged for the most yards of anyone in the conference at 66.1 ypg. Auburn's opponents 37.8 ypg in 6 games. it will be interesting to see how things unfold at Jordan-Hare regarding composure and how the refs call the game.
Gamecocks are 4th in the SEC in Time of Possession, while Auburn sits at 10th. (31:35 to 29:47).
Auburn holds its opponents to 32% in 3rd down conversions, while Carolina sits at 39%. Tigers have had to defend 92 third down attempts (30 conversions) in 6 games with USC facing 88 third downs (35 conversions) in 7 games.
Gamecock offense ranks 3rd in the SEC in 1st downs per game at 25.1 behind Texas A/M (25.5) & Mississippi State (25.3). Auburn ranks 5th at 24.7.
somewhat of a surprise might be how Carolina's offense ranks vs Malzahn and Auburn in "long scrimmage plays"...
SEC Stats
you're right in that turnovers will dictate how Carolina will fare in this game. Gamecocks will have to create opportunities and momentum swings in order to have a chance to steal a win. Auburn has gained 13 through 6 games while USC just 8 in 7 games. AU sits at +4 and USC at -2 on the season.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 9:13 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:27 am to CockInYourEar
A lot of Auburn fans will tell you don't sleep on numbers alone when evaluating this team. It's easy to see Malzahn wants to run the football and statistically that shows up on paper. But to look at the passing game and write it off as a non-factor automatically is a little misleading. NFL scouts have evaluated both Coates and Duke Williams as NFL draft picks and we've proven we are capable of getting the ball to them. The completion percentage to me seems a little misleading because we usually don't have to go to the air but when we do it's usually a deep ball off of a play action. On passes <20 yards Marshall's been a competent QB for us.
I'm looking forward to seeing which Carolina comes to town though. I've never seen a Jekyll and Hyde football team like yours before.
quote:We held them to 246 yards through the air which was well below their average going into the game. So using how our pass defense played against State isn't helping your cause. We also forced Prescott to throw 2 interceptions so take it for what it's worth.
Auburn has the 39th ranked Pass Defense, SC is ranked 75th HOWEVER, the only passing team they played is Miss St. This is where we have an advantage, our passing game vs their pass defense.
I'm looking forward to seeing which Carolina comes to town though. I've never seen a Jekyll and Hyde football team like yours before.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:27 am to scrooster
quote:
What you think about, you do ... what you do, you become.
"Now I am become Death, destroyer of worlds." -- Robert Openheimer
"Now I am become sex, destroyer of sheets." -- Loathor...
Posted on 10/22/14 at 10:51 am to Rig
quote:
I'm looking forward to seeing which Carolina comes to town though. I've never seen a Jekyll and Hyde football team like yours before.
we're hoping it's the one that beat & held East Carolina's #3 nationally ranked offense 18 points below their average, controlling the game for the final 50 minutes of the contest.
This post was edited on 10/22/14 at 10:52 am
Posted on 10/22/14 at 11:06 am to 1801
Posted on 10/22/14 at 1:15 pm to Loathor
quote:
"Now I am become Death, destroyer of worlds." -- Robert Openheimer
That gets misquoted all the time, it was really Gozer The Destructor who said that.
Posted on 10/22/14 at 1:17 pm to CockInYourEar
quote:
That gets misquoted all the time, it was really Gozer The Destructor who said that.
I think that's the second quote... grrrr sexy hell beasts...
Posted on 10/22/14 at 1:39 pm to Rig
quote:
But to look at the passing game and write it off as a non-factor automatically is a little misleading. NFL scouts have evaluated both Coates and Duke Williams as NFL draft picks and we've proven we are capable of getting the ball to them.
Coates has 12 receptions all year. He's 6"2" 206 lbs and with a 4.35 40 time, so he's a natural athlete and has a Pro WR body, but he only has 12 receptions all year at Auburn. Now Williams has 31 catches he's doing a great job getting open and would appear to be the #1 WR.
quote:
he completion percentage to me seems a little misleading because we usually don't have to go to the air but when we do it's usually a deep ball off of a play action. On passes <20 yards Marshall's been a competent QB for us.
That completion percentage takes into account the deep and short balls. He's completing about 55% of his passes, that's the same as it was 4 weeks ago when they ran an article breaking down his accuracy issues.
https://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2014/09/inside_the_numbers_analysis_sh.html
quote:
Marshall was 4-of-10 for 126 yards and one touchdown on throws of 15 yards or more, including at least one drop by a receiver.
So you may say Marshall might be improving as a passer from last year, but his completion % is down, his Yards Per Attempt are down and his QBR is down. Although, he is on pace to throw more TD's.
https://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/550021/nick-marshall
200-ish Yards is about all we can expect him to pass on a good day against even SC's poor pass defense.
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