Auburn's Unlikely Road to Atlanta

Started this in another thread, but I keep wanting to go deeper on the breakdowns and it's a little off-topic from the subject. So here's a new thread.

To start off, we have to win out. It would take utter chaos for a two-loss Auburn to get to Atlanta, if that's even mathematically possible at this point. Our remaining SEC schedule is as follows:

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vs. South Carolina
@ #3 Ole Miss
vs. Texas A&M
@ #9 Georgia
@ #4 Alabama

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(And I'll update those rankings after tomorrow morning.)

So as tough as that is going to be, I'd like to think it's possible. The coaching staff has the bye week to get things figured out, though most of our issues seem to be "Jimmys-and-Joes," specifically on the offensive line, than the "Xs-and-Os" that facilitated the post-bye week turnaround last year. But as unlikely as it is, if we want to defend our SEC title, it's what has to be done. Otherwise, this thread is useless. So we'll start with that: Be 11-1 on Sunday, November 30th.

Now, as of October 18th, we still don't control our own destiny. There's a lot of football left to play, and that very well may change, but Mississippi State as earned that #1 ranking and the West is theirs or Ole Miss's to lose.

That being said, we're all Rebel fans right now. Ideally, we need Mississippi State to lose two games, but the way they're playing, that looks unlikely. So, who's left on their schedule that looks the most likely to get the job done? Freezus and his rebellious band of Landshark Black Bears. Here's the problem: even if Mississippi State loses to Ole Miss, it does us no good if Ole Miss drops a game to someone other than us. That would put us tied with Mississippi State at 7-1 in the conference, but they own the head-to-head tiebreaker and would advance to the championship game over us.

That changes, however, if Auburn is Ole Miss's only loss should they win an Egg Bowl Showdown of the Century.

There'd be a three-way tie for the West with Auburn (loss to Mississippi State), Ole Miss (loss to Auburn), and Mississippi State (loss to Ole Miss) all sitting at 7-1. SEC rules regulate a three-way tiebreaker going to the conference record of cross divisional opponents. Let's take a look at who drew whom.

AU: Georgia (4-1)/South Carolina (2-3)
MSU: Kentucky (2-2)/Vanderbilt (0-4)
OM: Vanderbilt (0-4)/Tennessee (0-3)

At first glace, Auburn seems to have the strongest opponents of the three, and it's not even close. And while a deeper look confirms this, let's look at just how likely it is that Auburn would win the tie-breaker in that scenario.

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Georgia (4-1)
vs. Florida (Jacksonville)
@ Kentucky
vs. #6 Auburn

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I'm not going to entertain the thought of Georgia losing to the dumpster fire that is Florida, soon to be without a head coach. So worst-case scenario for us is Kentucky upsetting them in Lexington, leaving them at a 5-3 mark in conference play.

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South Carolina (2-3)
@ #6 Auburn
vs. Tennessee
@ Florida

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Again, assuming that Florida remains the giant dumpster fire that they are, our worst-case scenario is the Gamecocks dropping the Tennessee game, leaving them at a 3-5 conference record.

That leaves our combined cross divisional record at a worst-case 8-8 (Gators notwithstanding).

Now, let's look at Mississippi State's opponents: Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

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Kentucky (2-2)
vs. #1 Mississippi State
@ Missouri
vs. #9 Georgia
@ Tennessee

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So, based on everything else we're worked through, Kentucky loses to Mississippi State but beats Georgia. Worst-case scenario for us, then, is that they win @ Missouri and @ Tennessee, ending with a 5-3 mark in conference just like Georgia. At that point, then, we need Vanderbilt to finish with a worse record than South Carolina's 3-5. How likely is that?

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Vanderbilt (0-4)
@ Missouri
vs. Florida
@ #1 Mississippi State
vs. Tennessee

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So again, in a scenario where Mississippi State wins out, Vandy would need to win all three of their remaining SEC games in order for Mississippi State's Eastern opponents to match Auburn's opponents record. Call me crazy, but that's not something I'd worry about. When Missouri beats Vanderbilt next weekend, it will be all but impossible.

So, we've got Mississippi State beat at 7-9, but what about Ole Miss?

Fortunately, they also play arguably (Go Gata) the worst team in the East in the Vanderbilt Commodores. For this situation, the Tennessee/Vanderbilt game result doesn't matter, so for simplicity's sake we'll continue to assume that Vanderbilt wins. Also assuming losses to Missouri and Mississippi State, but worst-case wins against Florida and Tennessee, leaves the Commodores at 2-6.

I'll list Tennessee's remaining schedule next, but we'll see why it won't matter.

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Tennessee (0-3)
@ #4 Alabama
@ South Carolina
vs. Kentucky
vs. Missouri
@ Vanderbilt

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Recapping what we've done with Tennessee at this point, an 0-3 mark is advanced to 1-5 with a losses to Kentucky and Vanderbilt (whose winner is arbitrary in then scenario) and a win over South Carolina (since we're assuming our worst possibility). At this point, even if Tennessee were to win their other two games - #7 Alabama and Missouri - that would leave them at a 3-5 record. This, when combined with Vanderbilt's 2-6 mark, leaves Ole Miss's opponents at 5-11, also not enough to beat Auburn's 8-8 mark.

So, we're left with:
Auburn: 8-8
Mississippi State: 7-9
Ole Miss: 5-11

Now, this is where I ask a question to someone who knows about rules better than me. If Auburn winds up at the top of the three-team tiebreaker, which seems virtually locked up, do they go to Atlanta automatically? Or would the team at the bottom be eliminated, moving the other two teams to a two-team tiebreaker? Because this would be problematic if Ole Miss alone is eliminated through this, since Mississippi State owns the head-to-head against us.