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Alabama's chances to win the West
Posted on 10/8/14 at 11:09 am
Posted on 10/8/14 at 11:09 am
Obviously, we need help in that Ole Miss has to lose, probably twice unless we get into a favorable three way tie-breaker situation with Ole Miss, which I would not like to rely on.
So clearly we are pulling for A&M to stick Ole Miss with a loss (come on A&M defenses, get your shite together for at least this one game).
More difficult question is who to pull for in the AU/MSU game?
On the one hand I want to pull for AU because I think that AU has the tougher remaining schedule and therefore could drop another game (in addition to the Alabama game of course, which is presumption in all of this or the rest hardly matters)
On the other hand I want to pull for MSU to give Auburn this loss because I feel like MSU is more likely to be MSU and drop some games later.
I think I am leaning towards pulling for Auburn, figuring that Ole Miss and MSU will come up with at least two losses each somehow, they always do. Alabama wins out and we have another Iron Bowl for all the marbles.
It's probably way too early to try and figure out exactly what helps Alabama's cause the most, but thoughts?
So clearly we are pulling for A&M to stick Ole Miss with a loss (come on A&M defenses, get your shite together for at least this one game).
More difficult question is who to pull for in the AU/MSU game?
On the one hand I want to pull for AU because I think that AU has the tougher remaining schedule and therefore could drop another game (in addition to the Alabama game of course, which is presumption in all of this or the rest hardly matters)
On the other hand I want to pull for MSU to give Auburn this loss because I feel like MSU is more likely to be MSU and drop some games later.
I think I am leaning towards pulling for Auburn, figuring that Ole Miss and MSU will come up with at least two losses each somehow, they always do. Alabama wins out and we have another Iron Bowl for all the marbles.
It's probably way too early to try and figure out exactly what helps Alabama's cause the most, but thoughts?
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Posted on 10/8/14 at 11:27 am to elposter
I want MSU to beat Auburn. #1 cause I hate Auburn, and #2 cause if Bama doesn't win the west I sure don't want Auburn to win.
Still I expect us to beat Auburn MSU, Tennessee and LSU. So it doesn't really matter anyway.
Still I expect us to beat Auburn MSU, Tennessee and LSU. So it doesn't really matter anyway.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 11:53 am to BraveMom
doesnt really matter who wins in the barn/moo st game, as far as our position. we play both. the 2 biggest things we need this weekend are us winning convincingly and ole miss to lose to texam.
now as far as just picking between barn/moo st. i think it would be hilarious if moo st beat them
now as far as just picking between barn/moo st. i think it would be hilarious if moo st beat them
Posted on 10/8/14 at 11:58 am to crimsontater
Got to go with the grinders over Aub. We get both at home so i'm not sure it really matters who wins from our seccg hopes and dreams perspective.
This post was edited on 10/8/14 at 11:59 am
Posted on 10/8/14 at 11:59 am to crimsontater
quote:
doesnt really matter who wins in the barn/moo st game, as far as our position. we play both. the 2 biggest things we need this weekend are us winning convincingly and ole miss to lose to texam.
Probably right. One thing I have thought about is that a 3-way tie between us, Ole Miss, and Auburn at 7-1 (Ole Miss beats Bama, AU beats Ole Miss, Bama beats AU) probably ends up with AU in the championship game because the tie-breaker (record of non-divisional opponents) will likely go to AU because they play Georgia. So, I guess we would rather get in the 3-way tie-breaker scenario with Ole Miss and MSU. So, go Bulldogs this weekend I guess.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 12:02 pm to elposter
That's easy, I always pull against AU unless a win directly helps us. Since MSU/AU are both 5-0, easy choice, go Bulldogs! TAMU knocking off OM would be really nice too. Of course, if we drop the Arky game none of it matters anyway.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 12:06 pm to elposter
quote:
ends up with AU in the championship game because the tie-breaker (record of non-divisional opponents) will likely go to AU because they play Georgia.
What a terrible tie-breaker.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 12:59 pm to elposter
Pulling for MSU, because frick Auburn forever, that's why.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 1:04 pm to elposter
This weekend is easy. Clanga.
The weekend that will be a bitch is having to root for Auburn to beat Ole Miss. It makes me sick just thinking about it.
The weekend that will be a bitch is having to root for Auburn to beat Ole Miss. It makes me sick just thinking about it.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 1:38 pm to chattabama
If the real Bo Wallace would stand up, we might not have to. 
Posted on 10/8/14 at 1:49 pm to YStar
Hope State beats Auburn because I can't stand Auburn.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 1:54 pm to YStar
I was just curious to see how teams fared after beating Bama.
What was interesting is that most of them, except for Auburn, played the sisters of the poor the week afterward.
Auburn 2014: Won tSECCG
TAMU 2012: Won the next game against Sam Houston 47-28.
LSU 2011: Went on to win the rest of their games until, well, you know. Played against WKU the following week.
LSU 2010: Beat ULM the next week.
Auburn 2010: Beat USCe in SECCG
South Carolina: Lost to UK.
So it seems that most of the teams that beat us had a favorable week afterward to recover. Two teams didn't: Auburn and USCe. A team like Auburn is going to be used to success and beating Bama (unfortunately), whereas USCe went on to shite the bed against UK. UK that year finished 6-7.
I heard in an interview that an OM DB said they practiced Bama for four weeks. Obviously they aren't playing with that kind of time against TAMU. Will be interesting to see how they respond to success.
What was interesting is that most of them, except for Auburn, played the sisters of the poor the week afterward.
Auburn 2014: Won tSECCG
TAMU 2012: Won the next game against Sam Houston 47-28.
LSU 2011: Went on to win the rest of their games until, well, you know. Played against WKU the following week.
LSU 2010: Beat ULM the next week.
Auburn 2010: Beat USCe in SECCG
South Carolina: Lost to UK.
So it seems that most of the teams that beat us had a favorable week afterward to recover. Two teams didn't: Auburn and USCe. A team like Auburn is going to be used to success and beating Bama (unfortunately), whereas USCe went on to shite the bed against UK. UK that year finished 6-7.
I heard in an interview that an OM DB said they practiced Bama for four weeks. Obviously they aren't playing with that kind of time against TAMU. Will be interesting to see how they respond to success.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 2:03 pm to chattabama
I know their safety is out for a half. All I can hope is A&M gets a good lead in the first half, then real Bo Wallace shows up in the second.
I truly believe Arkansas would give Ole Miss fits. I think they can loss two or three (Ark/A&M/whomever, Aub, Miss St).
Now it is up to us to sort out or defensive backs, especially our safeties.
I truly believe Arkansas would give Ole Miss fits. I think they can loss two or three (Ark/A&M/whomever, Aub, Miss St).
Now it is up to us to sort out or defensive backs, especially our safeties.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 2:04 pm to chattabama
Will feel a lot better about our chances if A&M can pull this off. After that Ole Miss has:
UT at home (very probable win)
@LSU (probable win, with an outside chance LSU could get it together)
Auburn at home (I'd give Auburn the edge right now)
@ Arkansas (probable win, I'm not sold on Arkansas)
MSU at home (toss up type game, but edge Ole Miss because at home)
Some losable games for sure, but them likely having to lose two has me concerned. A loss this weekend, and I'm feeling pretty good about them dropping one more, most likely against Auburn.
UT at home (very probable win)
@LSU (probable win, with an outside chance LSU could get it together)
Auburn at home (I'd give Auburn the edge right now)
@ Arkansas (probable win, I'm not sold on Arkansas)
MSU at home (toss up type game, but edge Ole Miss because at home)
Some losable games for sure, but them likely having to lose two has me concerned. A loss this weekend, and I'm feeling pretty good about them dropping one more, most likely against Auburn.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 2:12 pm to YStar
quote:
Now it is up to us to sort out or defensive backs, especially our safeties
Landon got exposed, yes. But Landon was also being spread too thin. We couldn't trust any one side of the field to the other safeties, so Landon was responsible for everything.
Please don't misunderstand me. I know CNS is the best in the business, but this is what I would try to do on defense and special teams:
Defense:
-Maybe it's time to line up our best corner with their best WR and screw all of the field, boundary BS. If Cy Jones is our best corner he should have been on Treadwell like white on rice.
MLB: I'm not sure if Depriest just had a bad game or if he is genuinely that terrible against the pass.
-Blitz every play. No more mush rush. Put the QB on his arse a couple times and he will give the game away.
Special teams:
-Derrick Henry needs to not be on special teams anymore. It scares the shite out of me that we could lose him to injury on a play that someone else could've been playing.
-Punt the ball if a field goal is over 45 yards. Trust your defense to get a 3 and out and we are back in business again.
- Does there need to be competition at kickoffs? Griff hasn't been getting very many touchbacks, and his first kickoff against OM looked like something i kicked
Posted on 10/8/14 at 10:08 pm to elposter
I've played this out in my head like 50 times this week, and the most likely scenario in which I see Bama winning the West (and more importantly a playoff spot assuming they beat the SECe rep) is something like this:
Ala: Has to win out.
A&M: Must beat Ole Miss; lose to Alabama.
Ark: Must lose to Alabama.
Aub: Would be nice to have them undefeated prior to the Iron Bowl, but a loss to A&M would be permissable in this scenario.
LSU: Must lose to Alabama.
MsSt: Must lose to Auburn, Alabama.
OM: Must lose to Auburn and A&M.
This is extremely wishful thinking. All that said, I hope if Bama is going to be knocked out of the race that it's sooner rather than later.
Ala: Has to win out.
A&M: Must beat Ole Miss; lose to Alabama.
Ark: Must lose to Alabama.
Aub: Would be nice to have them undefeated prior to the Iron Bowl, but a loss to A&M would be permissable in this scenario.
LSU: Must lose to Alabama.
MsSt: Must lose to Auburn, Alabama.
OM: Must lose to Auburn and A&M.
This is extremely wishful thinking. All that said, I hope if Bama is going to be knocked out of the race that it's sooner rather than later.
This post was edited on 10/8/14 at 10:58 pm
Posted on 10/9/14 at 1:27 am to elposter
Obviously, Alabama has to win out to win the West.
If Ole Miss loses this week Alabama's chances of winning the West double, or more.
Aside from winning out, I think Ole Miss losing this week is all that matters. Hell, I haven't heard a single talking head talk about the Ole Miss game without saying Alabama beat themselves. That's huge when it comes to squeaking in the playoff.
If Alabama is around 5 or 6(they'll be higher than this) and beat Miss St and then Auburn there's no chance they don't firmly put themselves in the top 4.
With an Alabama win and Ole Miss loss this week, Alabama's path will go from "muddy as hell," to "holy shite we win out and we got this." <----- team's mentality
If Ole Miss loses this week Alabama's chances of winning the West double, or more.
Aside from winning out, I think Ole Miss losing this week is all that matters. Hell, I haven't heard a single talking head talk about the Ole Miss game without saying Alabama beat themselves. That's huge when it comes to squeaking in the playoff.
If Alabama is around 5 or 6(they'll be higher than this) and beat Miss St and then Auburn there's no chance they don't firmly put themselves in the top 4.
With an Alabama win and Ole Miss loss this week, Alabama's path will go from "muddy as hell," to "holy shite we win out and we got this." <----- team's mentality
Posted on 10/9/14 at 2:54 am to ReauxlTide222
This notion that we "need" Ole Miss to lose this week is false.
It would be nice if they did, but it isn't a necessity. If we win out, even if Ole Miss has only one loss and goes to the SEC championship, there is no way we will not get into the playoffs.
It would be nice if they did, but it isn't a necessity. If we win out, even if Ole Miss has only one loss and goes to the SEC championship, there is no way we will not get into the playoffs.
Posted on 10/9/14 at 8:35 am to YStar
That would be cool. I would love to get a rematch with Ole Miss, and then get a rematch with OU in the big one
Do you think the committee would put a 2nd SEC team in even with so many teams in CFB having lost a game or more?
Do you think the committee would put a 2nd SEC team in even with so many teams in CFB having lost a game or more?
Posted on 10/9/14 at 10:22 am to elposter
its easy, we just need ole miss to lose twice (which is possible, even quite likely. i can see them getting cocky and losing to a&m this weekend), and we need to win out and beat miss st and auburn.
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