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Bill Connelly genius of Football Outsiders gives Alabama 40.2% win probability
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:15 pm
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:15 pm
this weekend. According to his advanced numbers, it would be Alabama's most difficult game this year and least likely to win.
Alabama at Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS). Win probability: Ole Miss 59.8%.
LINK
Gumps fricked.
Alabama at Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS). Win probability: Ole Miss 59.8%.
LINK
Gumps fricked.
This post was edited on 10/1/14 at 12:20 pm
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Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:17 pm to SECRantLurker123
0% chance Alabama loses this one.
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:18 pm to SECRantLurker123
What sort of crackhead math does someone have to use to say this is Alabama's most difficult game of the year?
I'm pretty sure LSU, A&M, and Auburn are much more difficult than this one.
Vegas has Alabama as a now 6 point favorite, I'm pretty sure their system is better than BILLY's
I'm pretty sure LSU, A&M, and Auburn are much more difficult than this one.
Vegas has Alabama as a now 6 point favorite, I'm pretty sure their system is better than BILLY's
This post was edited on 10/1/14 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:18 pm to SECRantLurker123
Personally,I would take the domestic violence punchline out 
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:20 pm to pvilleguru
Bama wins this 9 out of 10, that's 90 percent. Ole Miss that is what you will hear if yall win the game , but Bama wins.
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:21 pm to SECRantLurker123
If it were the other way around, BAMA fans would be claiming that this formula this guy has come with as scientific fact.
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:22 pm to IAmReality
Vegas's system also opened the game with a 4.5 point spread...Bama's lowest regular season spread in 5 years. So their analytical system also had this as Alabama's most difficult game. Both systems look at deeper statistics and matchups than just the name on the jersey.
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:22 pm to SECRantLurker123
frick.
Oh, well. As an aside, there exist a 100% probability that I will get shithouse drunk during the game. So...there's that too...
STATS
Oh, well. As an aside, there exist a 100% probability that I will get shithouse drunk during the game. So...there's that too...
STATS
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:23 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
this formula this guy has come with as scientific fact.
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:25 pm to SECRantLurker123
quote:
Bill Connelly genius
Not so much
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:30 pm to idlewatcher
A 6 point favorite wins outright about ~70% of the time.
This guy disagrees with Vegas by 30%.
AKA this guy's system sucks.
This guy disagrees with Vegas by 30%.
AKA this guy's system sucks.
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:30 pm to SECRantLurker123
I thnk WVU and Florida were better than any teams OM has faced. You wanna fight about it?
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:31 pm to SECRantLurker123
quote:
this weekend. According to his advanced numbers, it would be Alabama's most difficult game this year and least likely to win.
lulz.
But if State and Ole Miss both win, I'm preparing for the apocalypse.
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:32 pm to BrerTiger
quote:
But if State and Ole Miss both win, I'm preparing for the apocalypse.
Ebola for sure.
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:34 pm to SECRantLurker123
Saban certainly has his head scratcher games, but this won't be one of them. Bama rolls.
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:47 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
BAMA fans
quote:
scientific fact
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:48 pm to SECRantLurker123
quote:
genius
seems suspect
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:49 pm to ibldprplgld
They are probably the best teams either have faced SO FAR this year. I'll grant the OP that. If I had to say I would give Bama the edge on opponents so far, but the jury is still out on UF and WVU.
Obviously Bama has more talent overall, it should be a decent game,if and it is a big if,OM is as good as their current ranking.
Obviously Bama has more talent overall, it should be a decent game,if and it is a big if,OM is as good as their current ranking.
Posted on 10/1/14 at 12:54 pm to SECRantLurker123
Intellectually I know Ole Miss has a meaningful shot at winning this game, but I honestly don't see Bama losing this one. Granted, I also thought Auburn would run at will on Kansas State and South Carolina was going to be a national championship contender this year, so anything short of Saban summoning a lessor demon from the realm of torment late in the 3rd or Bo Wallace turning into a box of raisins won't really surprise me.
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