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Reasons for the tight spread
Posted on 9/29/14 at 9:44 am
Posted on 9/29/14 at 9:44 am
I know Ole Miss is a good team but the tight spread from Vegas makes me wonder. Speculation for reasons:
* - They have injury info on Sims or White that we don't.
* - They suspect our up-tempo defensive improvements won't work.
* - They consider our Middle linebackers a coverage liability
* - This is Ole Miss's superbowl and will chew Alabama up in a fever of excitement.
* - Alabama's poor turnover margin will finally get us.
I personally think much of the weight of this game will depend on how much improvement our secondary has made over the last year. The tempo thing will give us trouble. It's going to give everyone who faces it trouble. But trouble can be managed. We didn't manage it last year but did manage it in the second half against West Virginia.
The turnover margin is a big issue that we sure need to turn around.
I'm not sure about the Ole Miss Superbowl thing. I've seen that work for them and work against them.
* - They have injury info on Sims or White that we don't.
* - They suspect our up-tempo defensive improvements won't work.
* - They consider our Middle linebackers a coverage liability
* - This is Ole Miss's superbowl and will chew Alabama up in a fever of excitement.
* - Alabama's poor turnover margin will finally get us.
I personally think much of the weight of this game will depend on how much improvement our secondary has made over the last year. The tempo thing will give us trouble. It's going to give everyone who faces it trouble. But trouble can be managed. We didn't manage it last year but did manage it in the second half against West Virginia.
The turnover margin is a big issue that we sure need to turn around.
I'm not sure about the Ole Miss Superbowl thing. I've seen that work for them and work against them.
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Posted on 9/29/14 at 9:46 am to slammer66
quote:
* - They consider our Middle linebackers a coverage liability
quote:
* - This is Ole Miss's superbowl and will chew Alabama up in a fever of excitement.
It is these two. The others have some merit, but it is really just these two.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 9:55 am to AllBamaDoesIsWin
Def a head scratcher. I just don't believe man for man they can match up with us on offense. Even if Sims were to stay in Tuscaloosa, Coker can keep them honest enough by stretching the field and just hand it to TJ, DH, and KD all day.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 9:55 am to slammer66
quote:
* - They have injury info on Sims or White that we don't.
Doubtful.
quote:
* - They suspect our up-tempo defensive improvements won't work.
I don't really consider Ole Miss a very good up-tempo offense.
quote:
* - They consider our Middle linebackers a coverage liability
Agree with this one. Ole Miss has used their slot receiver very well all season.
quote:
* - This is Ole Miss's superbowl and will chew Alabama up in a fever of excitement.
Maybe a little, but it's not like Alabama has struggled on the road under Saban.
quote:
* - Alabama's poor turnover margin will finally get us.
Agreed. Ole Miss is a very capable defense, and the turnovers by the Bama offense do raise some eyebrows.
This is the game where I think we truly find out what Blake Sims is made of. Ole Miss has a very capable secondary to maybe keep the passing game in check. How will he handle adversity? Will he get frustrated and try to force throws that aren't there? I think that's where the game comes down to. I think our defense is fine and will handle their offense and their version of up-tempo fine. Wallace is still Wallace and I haven't seen a RB they have to cause me concern that they'll have any running game. Getting them one-dimensional plays right into Saban's hands and I think Wallace will be running for his life most of the game if they can't establish a running game.
This post was edited on 9/29/14 at 9:57 am
Posted on 9/29/14 at 9:59 am to slammer66
Not to mention OM is a top 3 defense ranked ahead of Alabama. They have a returning senior qb and a great receiving corps with a veteran OL. I look for a very tight game going into the fourth with one or the other securing the victory late.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 10:10 am to slammer66
It's a top 11 opponent on the road
This post was edited on 9/29/14 at 10:12 am
Posted on 9/29/14 at 10:15 am to slammer66
I cant see injury information or our terribad turnonver margin from last week being the factor because, and correct me if I am wrong, hasnt the spread on this game been fairly tight already for most the season?
Posted on 9/29/14 at 10:47 am to slammer66
quote:
Reasons for the tight spread
Money.
You need to understand how a line works.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 11:01 am to labamafan
quote:
Not to mention OM is a top 3 defense ranked ahead of Alabama. They have a returning senior qb and a great receiving corps with a veteran OL. I look for a very tight game going into the fourth with one or the other securing the victory late.
Statistically they do have a good defense but the best passing game they faced was Boise which is ranked 16th nationally while we had to contend with 5th ranked West Virginia. We also had to do that with what is currently our 3rd string corner.
If Sims plays like he did against Florida it's not gonna matter anyway, but we won't know that until we know it.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 11:06 am to slammer66
I think you should put the spread in the title, with that being said I think I will be beating on this game.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 11:23 am to stat19
quote:
Money.
You need to understand how a line works.
Well, this one may not have worked since it has moved from 4 to 6 in less than 24 hours. Which indicates people were loading up on Bama.
I wasn't expecting a 10+ line. 6 1/2 is about where I thought it would be, and was surprised it opened at 4. Seems a lot of other people were as well.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 6:33 pm to stat19
quote:
Money.
You need to understand how a line works.
Yes but there is a reason why the line moves.
Posted on 9/30/14 at 6:05 am to 3down10
ETA. Nvm, found it
This post was edited on 9/30/14 at 6:05 am
Posted on 9/30/14 at 10:24 am to slammer66
Also, I kinda like a tight spread 
Posted on 9/30/14 at 11:42 am to stat19
quote:
Money
quote:
You need to understand how a line works.
NO!! They have secret info on our players injuries!!! It's sooo obvious!!
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