Fun with scoring stats (Mississippi State)

Last week, the model predicted a win. It also predicted that A&M would score between 40-49 points and Arkansas would score between 27-34 points.

The 5 point error accounts for 5 wasted scoring drives.

This week's model:

A&M scores 51.2 ppg and allows 15 ppg.

Against its opponents, A&M scores 15.6 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows 14 fewer points than its opponents scoring averages

Mississippi State scores 41.3 ppg and allows 16.5 ppg. They score 17 more than their opponents allow and allow on average 11 fewer points than their opponents scoring averages.

Using the A&M model: A&M 40, MSU 27
Using the MSU model: A&M 32, MSU 32

Since the A&M model is greater than 8 points, it predicts an A&M win.

It also predicts A&M will score between 32-40 and Mississippi State will score between 27-32

Extrapolating across the rest of the season:

Ole Miss 25, A&M 24 (tossup)
A&M 30, Alabama 28 (tossup)
A&M 39, ULM 5 (blowout victory)
A&M 32, Auburn 28 (tossup)
A&M 36, Missouri 20 (victory)
A&M 29, LSU 27 (tossup)

That moves LSU back into the "tossup" category and leaves a worst-case scenario record of 8-4.