Something's gotta give between Arkansas and Texas A&M.

A&M's offense averages 55.3 ppg. Arkansas is right behind at 48.8 ppg.

A&M's scoring defense is 8th, allowing 11.8 ppg, and Arkansas' has allowed 23.5 ppg to rank 55th.

Neither Arkansas nor A&M have shut down defenses. This game will likely be won in the turnover margin and OT could be a really fun proposition.

Other interesting statistics that may look very different after Saturday are:

A&M has given up 124.8 yards/game and as they have enjoyed telling us, they've not given up a rushing TD yet this season. Arkansas will bully them up front, as A&M will try to do the same to Arkansas. The Hogs have given up 140 rush yards/game so far. Being able to hold on to the ball, and sustain drives will be a big factor for both teams.

A&M is tied for 3rd in 3rd down conversion %, Arkansas is #11. Both teams have converted when needed so far, whichever team falters on 3rd down will put themselves in a hole.

Defense Passing Efficiency. A&M is ranked 27th and Arkansas in the 70's. Arkansas' secondary is still bad, but it has improved. The LB's seem to be able to cover and DB's are playing the ball. They will still be at a big talent disadvantage against A&M's receiving corp. This match up is possibly the most important, because if Arkansas can prevent the big morale breaking plays they'll have a really good chance at winning the game.

On the flip side, A&M's secondary isn't that great and Arkansas has added capable weapons. There are still issues with drops from the WR's but the new WR's and the TE's have been money catching the ball. A&M will pay consequences if they sell out against the run this year.

Penalty yards/game:
Arkansas averages just over 4 penalties a game for 38.5 penalty ypg ranking 23rd in the country. A&M gets flagged 6 times a game for over 68 yards a game, ranking 90th in the country. Bielema's teams are more disciplined and when the commit penalties they are on average less costly than A&M's which average over 11 yards per penalty, which indicate more personal foul penalties. Sumlin's lack of control over his team and his recruiting of questionable character individuals manifests itself in this statistic. Expect A&M to break mentally before Arkansas. (this did not happen If A&M commits stupid penalties and gives Arkansas 5 extra first downs, those will become points on the scoreboard.

Fumbles lost & Passes had intercepted: Both A&M and Arkansas have lost 2 fumbles so far this year. Arkansas has had 2 passes picked (one was in the hit during the throw pick 6 against Auburn, the other was the back throwing a stupid ball at the 2 yard line), A&M has had 3 picked off. You don't beat either of these teams by giving up possessions, whoever holds on to the ball the best will be in the driver's seat.

Rushing Offense: Both squads have a stable of good backs. Arkansas is 6th in the country with 324.5 rush yards/game and leads the nation with 17 rush TD's. A&M is 38th with 207.5 rush yards/game and they've scored 13 rush TD's. A&M's rush defense is 42nd, giving up 124.8 yards/game and Arkansas' is 55th giving up 140 per game. Not much difference in rushing defense, the team that can hold the other's rushing game in check will most likely win the game. If A&M can't run and has to throw, Arkansas will sit back in coverage and break up passes. If Arkansas can't run, everything goes to hell in a hand basket and Brandon Allen will panic on 3rd and long and his WR's will drop balls thrown off the mark.

Kickoff Returns:
Arkansas leads the country in KO returns. Korliss Marshall housed the opening kickoff last week for 97 yards and he's a threat to break it open anytime he touches the ball (and can hang on to it). Texas A&M is 17th in KO return defense allowing only 16.73 yards/return while Arkansas averages 34.13 yards/return. Arkansas gives up on average 20ish yards/return and A&M gets 26/27 yards/return. Arkansas hasn't had the consistency it wants in KO's but the new guy kicking off performed well last week. This is where Arkansas can steal back momentum or put quick points on the board if they give up a big pass TD. (also did not happen

Sacks vs. Sacks Allowed: A&M is tied for 7th with 4.25 sacks/game. Arkansas is 4th in the country having only allowed 1 sack so far this season. Arkansas hasn't blitzed much at all this year due to their weak secondary, but they're still getting 2 sacks/game. A&M's given up 3 sacks on the year. The OL/DL battles will be fun to watch as the blocking schemes vs. the athletic DL's will be a chess match with machetes.

Finally, Turnover Margin: Arkansas has the advantage here. The Hogs have a +2 T/O margin so far while playing the decidedly tougher schedule than the Aggies. A&M has a -2 T/O deficit against the likes of an underwhelming S. Carolina, Lamar, Rice, and SMU. Arkansas has an improved defense and firing Chris Ash is allowing Randy Shannon to put the guys he wants on the field in the LB spots. The older slower dumber LBrs should not be getting much playing time as Arkansas may be in Nickel coverage for most of the game, when in base there will be freshman speedsters at LB that will blitz and disrupt Hill. Brandon Allen's decision making has been the biggest turnaround so far for Arkansas, he's scrambled for big gains, and kept plays alive until a newcomer WR worked their way open and he hits them where only his WR can make a play. The maturity and resilience of the Arkansas team could be the difference in the game. (did not play out like I thought it could) If it is close in the 4th, I expect A&M to break first and Arkansas will have a shot to win the game, but we'll need to find a kicker we can trust first.

Jesus christ that was too long. My apologies.

This post was edited on 9/28/14 at 9:33 am