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Fun with Scoring Stats (Arkansas)
Posted on 9/21/14 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 9/21/14 at 12:01 pm
A&M scores 55.3 ppg and allows 11.8 ppg.
Arkansas scores 48.8 ppg and allows 23.5 ppg.
vs. A&M's opponents, A&M scored 16 more points than South Carolina allows per game (52), 45.5 more points than Lamar allows per game (27.5), 5.7 points less than Rice allows per game (43.7) and 9.3 points more than SMU allows per game (48.7).
vs. A&M, South Carolina scored 8.8 less than they average (36.8), Lamar scored 40.3 less than they average (43.3), Rice scored 13 less than they average (23), and SMU scored 2 more than they average (4).
On average, A&M scores 16.3 more than their opponents allow and allows 15 less than their opponents score.
vs. Arkansas' opponents, they score 15.3 more than their opponents allow and allow 6.2 less than their opponents score.
The major outlier for us is Lamar, and believe it or not the major outlier for Arkansas is Northern Illinois, not Nicholls.
Using the A&M model, the score is A&M 49, Arkansas 34.
Using the Arkansas model, the score is A&M 40, Arkansas 27.
Basically, it predicts that A&M scores between 40-49 and Arkansas scores between 27-34.
Since the difference in both cases is greater than 1 score, it predicts a win for A&M.
Extrapolating out the rest of the season:
A&M 33, Mississippi State 26
Ole Miss 29, A&M 27
A&M 30, Alabama 27
A&M 40, ULM 3
A&M 32, Auburn 26
A&M 37, Missouri 23
A&M 31, LSU 21
Here's what changed. Based on the model, you can now move Missouri and LSU away from "tossup" and into the win column. Mississippi State and Auburn are close. Ole Miss and Alabama are still way too close to call.
Worst case scenario now is 8-4.
Arkansas scores 48.8 ppg and allows 23.5 ppg.
vs. A&M's opponents, A&M scored 16 more points than South Carolina allows per game (52), 45.5 more points than Lamar allows per game (27.5), 5.7 points less than Rice allows per game (43.7) and 9.3 points more than SMU allows per game (48.7).
vs. A&M, South Carolina scored 8.8 less than they average (36.8), Lamar scored 40.3 less than they average (43.3), Rice scored 13 less than they average (23), and SMU scored 2 more than they average (4).
On average, A&M scores 16.3 more than their opponents allow and allows 15 less than their opponents score.
vs. Arkansas' opponents, they score 15.3 more than their opponents allow and allow 6.2 less than their opponents score.
The major outlier for us is Lamar, and believe it or not the major outlier for Arkansas is Northern Illinois, not Nicholls.
Using the A&M model, the score is A&M 49, Arkansas 34.
Using the Arkansas model, the score is A&M 40, Arkansas 27.
Basically, it predicts that A&M scores between 40-49 and Arkansas scores between 27-34.
Since the difference in both cases is greater than 1 score, it predicts a win for A&M.
Extrapolating out the rest of the season:
A&M 33, Mississippi State 26
Ole Miss 29, A&M 27
A&M 30, Alabama 27
A&M 40, ULM 3
A&M 32, Auburn 26
A&M 37, Missouri 23
A&M 31, LSU 21
Here's what changed. Based on the model, you can now move Missouri and LSU away from "tossup" and into the win column. Mississippi State and Auburn are close. Ole Miss and Alabama are still way too close to call.
Worst case scenario now is 8-4.
3
Posted on 9/21/14 at 12:33 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
you can now move Missouri and LSU away from "tossup" and into the win column.
I don't think statistics on other games show how well Chavis can create trouble for our up tempo spread offense. I still think its a toss up against LSU considering both teams have only played 1 conference game. We will definitely know how well our defense will be with Bert's physical run game. Because our guys are physically bigger this year, I really think they will be able to create enough stops to win the game.
EDIT: Forgot to add that nonetheless its a great analysis.
This post was edited on 9/21/14 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 9/21/14 at 12:35 pm to greenbastard
quote:
I don't think statistics on other games show how well Chavis can create trouble for our up tempo spread offense
We have a power running capability this year and our defense is much better than last year. LSU still only scored 34 against our shitty 2013 defense in case you forgot.
Posted on 9/21/14 at 12:55 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Aye.
But don't forget that we only managed to score 10. Now, I'm sure the rain had some effect on that game, but their defensive scheme has been effective against us the past 2 years.
But don't forget that we only managed to score 10. Now, I'm sure the rain had some effect on that game, but their defensive scheme has been effective against us the past 2 years.
Posted on 9/21/14 at 5:06 pm to greenbastard
I won't count LSU as a win until time runs out. Their defensive speed makes them a bad match up for us.
Posted on 9/21/14 at 5:12 pm to Tantal
Remember, in this analysis, the score is irrelevant.
0-8 points either way = outcome in question
9-16 points either way = one score outcome
17-24 points either way = two score outcome
25+ points either way = blowout
0-8 points either way = outcome in question
9-16 points either way = one score outcome
17-24 points either way = two score outcome
25+ points either way = blowout
Posted on 9/21/14 at 7:04 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
I've really enjoyed these the last couple of years. Do you have the record for these predictions the last 2 years?
Posted on 9/21/14 at 7:09 pm to Onyx Aggie
that would be cool to see...
Posted on 9/21/14 at 7:57 pm to Onyx Aggie
We'd have to dig deep to find them. I know my model predicted Alabama to win by 15 in 2012.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:47 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Basically, it predicts that A&M scores between 40-49 and Arkansas scores between 27-34.
Final Score: A&M 35, Arkansas 28
Posted on 9/28/14 at 11:59 am to CGSC Lobotomy
No problem, just thought it would be interesting to see. 
Posted on 9/28/14 at 12:32 pm to Onyx Aggie
If you consider the interception, the failed 4th down conversion, and the missed field goal, it was pretty accurate.
Posted on 9/28/14 at 1:02 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
The Count 
Solid analysis
Solid analysis
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