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What We’re Afraid to Say About Ebola
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:30 pm
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:30 pm
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West Africa represents the first huge concentrations of humans that Ebola has infected. It mutates quickly and constantly. If one of the millions of mutations makes for an airborne virus, we're in trouble.
Just a few years ago, an airborne flu virus, H1N1, completely encircled the globe in just a few weeks. Thankfully it was not a major killer. Ebola is.
Ebola is devastating the economies of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. It has recently spread to Nigeria and Senegal. A different strain has killed 35 of 62 victims in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The official death count in West Africa is more than 2,300 out of more than 4,300 reported victims. However, actual deaths are probably more like 7,000 deaths out of 13,000 cases because of a failure to report.
Vaccines and "cures" are in development but are months away, if they are even successfully created.
It's likely to become airborne and will probably spread much further than West Africa.
What are you doing to prepare for this plague? I have a motorhome so I'll probably head away from people and wait for it to burn through Kentucky.
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The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has the potential to alter history as much as any plague has ever done.
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There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night.
The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world.
The second possibility is one that virologists are loath to discuss openly but are definitely considering in private: that an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air.
West Africa represents the first huge concentrations of humans that Ebola has infected. It mutates quickly and constantly. If one of the millions of mutations makes for an airborne virus, we're in trouble.
Just a few years ago, an airborne flu virus, H1N1, completely encircled the globe in just a few weeks. Thankfully it was not a major killer. Ebola is.
Ebola is devastating the economies of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. It has recently spread to Nigeria and Senegal. A different strain has killed 35 of 62 victims in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The official death count in West Africa is more than 2,300 out of more than 4,300 reported victims. However, actual deaths are probably more like 7,000 deaths out of 13,000 cases because of a failure to report.
Vaccines and "cures" are in development but are months away, if they are even successfully created.
It's likely to become airborne and will probably spread much further than West Africa.
What are you doing to prepare for this plague? I have a motorhome so I'll probably head away from people and wait for it to burn through Kentucky.
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Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:33 pm to Kentucker
I live a couple of miles from Emory, where the American patients are being treated, and I'm not concerned.
There isn't really a whole lot that you can do anyway if, and that's a big if, it becomes airborne.
There isn't really a whole lot that you can do anyway if, and that's a big if, it becomes airborne.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:42 pm to Kentucker
How many Americans have been killed by it so far? Every person that was infected by it has survived as far as I can tell.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:43 pm to CatFan81
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I live a couple of miles from Emory, where the American patients are being treated, and I'm not concerned. There isn't really a whole lot that you can do anyway if, and that's a big if, it becomes airborne.
It's not as big an if as you might think. The author of the article, Mike Osterholm, is a distinguished virologist at the University of Minnesota. That's the reason I referred to his article. If he's worried, then I am, too.
He points out that Ebola has never before had such a big number of humans in which to evolve. As he mentions, it's a really sloppy replicator and will turn out many millions of variants. The vast majority will simply die out because they're not suited for human-to-human spread.
However, if a single variation can become airborne then look out world.
This post was edited on 9/13/14 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:46 pm to Kentucker
Well, fortunately, we don't live in Africa. We have the sanitation, facilities, and resources to manage the symptoms of it until it runs its course. That's not the case in most of Africa.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:46 pm to Henry Jones Jr
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How many Americans have been killed by it so far? Every person that was infected by it has survived as far as I can tell.
None to date, of course since it isn't loose in our cities. Regrettably, though, it is becoming a monster in West Africa.
If containment isn't possible there, and it's looking grim, it may very well spread across the continent even if it doesn't mutate to an airborne virus.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:48 pm to Kentucker
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What are you doing to prepare for this plague?
watching football.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:48 pm to CatFan81
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Well, fortunately, we don't live in Africa. We have the sanitation, facilities, and resources to manage the symptoms of it until it runs its course. That's not the case in most of Africa.
This. There are people still dying of the common cold and stuff like that in Africa. We'd be in much better shape here should it come here. Would some people die? Yeah. But it wouldn't kill half of the people it infected. Isn't the big thing with viruses staying hydrated while letting it run it's course?
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:49 pm to CatFan81
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Well, fortunately, we don't live in Africa. We have the sanitation, facilities, and resources to manage the symptoms of it until it runs its course. That's not the case in most of Africa.
In its present form I agree with you. We could eliminate it with a good effort.
Dr. Osterholm is worried about its mutations. We couldn't stop H1N1, even with our sophisticated efforts.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:50 pm to Kentucker
Hasn't Ebola been consistently infecting Africans en masse since the 70s? I think Uganda has dealt with more than a few over the last several years.
There are a host of diseases that could become airborne and a threat to humanity at any given time. It doesn't so much good to live in fear of every disease that could become airborne.
There are a host of diseases that could become airborne and a threat to humanity at any given time. It doesn't so much good to live in fear of every disease that could become airborne.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:51 pm to Kentucker
I read a book about Ebola and the Marburg Virus called "The Hot Zone". I tell people who aren't scared about Ebola to read it.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:52 pm to Kentucker
I'm shocked that we have so many virologists on this board.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:54 pm to Henry Jones Jr
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This. There are people still dying of the common cold and stuff like that in Africa. We'd be in much better shape here should it come here. Would some people die? Yeah. But it wouldn't kill half of the people it infected. Isn't the big thing with viruses staying hydrated while letting it run it's course?
Ebola's gruesome claim to fame is its attack on the body. While flu viruses tend to stay in the lungs (novel strains can become blood borne), Ebola is specifically blood borne and attacks the cells of organs.
Organs are dissolved into a bloody mush that can ooze out of the body's orifices.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:58 pm to BluegrassBelle
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Hasn't Ebola been consistently infecting Africans en masse since the 70s? I think Uganda has dealt with more than a few over the last several years.
Not en masse. You're thinking of the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is currently dealing with their 19th outbreak of the virus that was first discovered near the DRC's Ebola River. Hence the name.
All outbreaks previous to West Africa occurred in isolated areas with few humans. Containment was relatively easy.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:58 pm to Kentucker
How long does the virus take to run it's course usually?
Posted on 9/13/14 at 12:59 pm to Hawkeye76
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I tell people who aren't scared about Ebola to read it.
Why would I read something that is going to make me scared about something I can't control?
Posted on 9/13/14 at 1:00 pm to Hawkeye76
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I read a book about Ebola and the Marburg Virus called "The Hot Zone". I tell people who aren't scared about Ebola to read it.
That's a good book for a scary introduction to the threat viruses pose to humans. It's fiction, of course, but very well written.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 1:01 pm to Stonehog
If Ebola evolves to an airborne species, I'll bet 99% of us become amateur virologists.
This post was edited on 9/13/14 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 9/13/14 at 1:05 pm to Henry Jones Jr
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How long does the virus take to run it's course usually?
This strain:
Incubation after exposure is 2 - 21 days
Symptoms to death or recovery, 7 - 10 days
Contagious after recovery, up to 7 weeks.
Posted on 9/13/14 at 1:06 pm to Kentucker
Uganda had an outbreak of 400+ back in 2000. I wouldn't really consider that an isolated area. Especially since it's reoccurred in the same country.
It's interesting that it's been around since the 70s without an airborne mutation and it's been all over Africa and at times infecting larger populations and some of the same populations numerous times.
Or that given the number of African immigrants that have come to the US since the 70s that it hasn't spread here even without it being airborne.
It's interesting that it's been around since the 70s without an airborne mutation and it's been all over Africa and at times infecting larger populations and some of the same populations numerous times.
Or that given the number of African immigrants that have come to the US since the 70s that it hasn't spread here even without it being airborne.
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