How often

The talent difference from one team to another is generally not as wide as we imagine. Plus, college age males need very little encouragement from the media and their peers to suddenly see themselves as invincible, especially against an opponent they view as weak. One team gets angry, the other gets cocky and that relatively small talent difference is neutralized. It's a common story, but people rarely learn from the past.

quote:

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for the most part the difference in talent is the difference in a given game

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I agree. If one team is even slightly more talented, when you average that across 140 plays in the course of a game, all else being equal the more talented team wins most of the time. Luck does play a part, but as the sample size increases (# of attempts), talent increasingly wins out.

It's the all else being equal part that causes unexpected outcomes. Being able to motivate a team on a weekly basis is a huge part of successful coaching, especially when the players are college age.