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WTF was Saban thinking kicking that FG?
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:11 pm
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:11 pm
Just watched the replay on ESPNU and my jimmies are still rustled.
Odds of making a 57 yard FG on the last play of a crucial game in a kicker's first ever kick: 5-10%
Odds of it getting blocked and run back for a TD (considering the low trajectory required, the inexperience of the kicker, and the fact that the previous kick was blocked): 15-20%
Odds of a miss being returned for a TD by a track star with nothing but a kicker, QB and offensive linemen on the field to defend it: 35-40%
Odds of winning the game in OT if you simply take a knee: 40-45% (AU gets the edge due to confidence in kicker and home field advantage).
How on earth did he come to the conclusion that kicking the FG was the best choice? Saban is an elite recruiter, talent developer and program manager, but damn he is only average (or possibly below average) at in game decision making.
Odds of making a 57 yard FG on the last play of a crucial game in a kicker's first ever kick: 5-10%
Odds of it getting blocked and run back for a TD (considering the low trajectory required, the inexperience of the kicker, and the fact that the previous kick was blocked): 15-20%
Odds of a miss being returned for a TD by a track star with nothing but a kicker, QB and offensive linemen on the field to defend it: 35-40%
Odds of winning the game in OT if you simply take a knee: 40-45% (AU gets the edge due to confidence in kicker and home field advantage).
How on earth did he come to the conclusion that kicking the FG was the best choice? Saban is an elite recruiter, talent developer and program manager, but damn he is only average (or possibly below average) at in game decision making.
This post was edited on 8/14/14 at 10:13 pm
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Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:12 pm to Monticello
He knew AU wins if it goes OT
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:12 pm to Monticello
In.
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:12 pm to Monticello
quote:
Odds of a miss being returned for a TD by track star with nothing but a kicker, QB and offensive linemen on the field to defend it: 35-40%
If like to see where you gathered this data
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:13 pm to Monticello
He knew he couldn't win it in OT. He took the shot. 
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:14 pm to Monticello
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:14 pm to OBReb6
quote:
OBReb6
I can't stop looking at your avi...
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:14 pm to Monticello
Where are you getting your odds bro? Has only happened 4 times in almost 50 years. That's a 1 in 7050 chance....
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:14 pm to Monticello
quote:
Odds of a miss being returned for a TD by track star with nothing but a kicker, QB and offensive linemen on the field to defend it: 35-40%
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:17 pm to NBamaAlum
Trying the FG wasn't awful.
Having a bunch of walk-on's covering in case it missed was the assinine part.
Having a bunch of walk-on's covering in case it missed was the assinine part.
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:18 pm to OBReb6
quote:
If like to see where you gathered this data
Let's just say the data on FG returns for TD's is very limited due to the fact that most coaches are not stupid enough to kick a 57 yard FG in a kids first ever FG attempt.
Watch the replay again. Who was going to stop Davis? He was 10x the athlete of anyone on the field wearing crimson. It's not like Davis made some incredible run by juking by Landon Collins and pulling a spin move on Clinton-Dix. He ran straight ahead, veered left and ran 109 yards untouched. He probably could have picked any angle or side of the field and had a TD run. That was horrible coaching by Bama. Plain horrible.
This post was edited on 8/14/14 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:19 pm to Monticello
quote:
Odds of a miss being returned for a TD by a track star with nothing but a kicker, QB and offensive linemen on the field to defend it: 35-40%
since its happened like two or three times in all of college football history, im going to go ahead and say the odds if it having happened are considerably lower than 35-40%
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:20 pm to narddogg81
He is using "bama math".
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:22 pm to SouthdownsTiger
quote:
Trying the FG wasn't awful.
Having a bunch of walk-on's covering in case it missed was the assinine part.
True, but if you put a bunch of smaller athletes on the field to cover the miss, the likelihood of a block goes up. Either way, kicking a FG is stupid with the game tied. You only do that if you need the 3 points to win. Not with overtime waiting for you simply by taking a knee. Of all the times Saban decides to be a revolutionary instead of conservative as hell, he sure picked the wrong one.
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:23 pm to WeBleedCrimson
quote:
I can't stop looking at your avi...
It's so great I almost feel bad. I hope the poor dude isn't a poster here
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:25 pm to OBReb6
quote:
It's so great I almost feel bad. I hope the poor dude isn't a poster here
I laughed so hard when I saw that on TV earlier
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:25 pm to ironsides
quote:
Where are you getting your odds bro? Has only happened 4 times in almost 50 years. That's a 1 in 7050 chance....
How many times has a track star attempted a return on a FG kick against 11 of the slowest players on a team?
Like I said, watch the film again. The actual run was nothing special. The coverage and coaching decision was so bad its laughable.
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:26 pm to Monticello
I think the decision to go for it on 4th down so deep in Auburn territory was the worst decision in the mix...you really don't have anyone on the team that can make a 30 yard FG?...that's crazy.
I also was shocked at how poorly coached Alabama looked in that game...stupid penalties, bad execution, lack of discipline...
'Bama just gave that game away...if that had been Miles, the whole slant of every highlight reel would have been all the bad decisions Miles made...Saban gets a pass from most everybody except level-headed Bama fans...which there are about 5...
I also was shocked at how poorly coached Alabama looked in that game...stupid penalties, bad execution, lack of discipline...
'Bama just gave that game away...if that had been Miles, the whole slant of every highlight reel would have been all the bad decisions Miles made...Saban gets a pass from most everybody except level-headed Bama fans...which there are about 5...
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:26 pm to Monticello
quote:
WTF was Saban thinking kicking that FG?
I've won 3 of the last 4 natty titles, and own four overall, I think I need to have a brainfart, dent my untarnished reputation, and p!ss one away, let GusBus gain some in-state momentum.
LSU and ATM also thank him in slowing his roll!
Posted on 8/14/14 at 10:27 pm to Monticello
But 35-40%? You usually seem pretty logical. Are you drunk?
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