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FPRC's Florida Gators 2014 Football Preview
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:11 pm
The Football Power Rankings Committee presents to tRant:
2014 University of Florida Football Preview
2013 Recap
I hated 2013 Florida football. It was painful. It was hard to watch.
Florida lost a ridiculous number of players to injury in 2013 - which was chronicled in detail here: Players missing games and snaps
It started in fall camp, and it impacted critically important players:
? Chaz Green: a guy that had started at RT for 2 years... gone.
? Andre Debose: Poised to have a break-out season, and already tied for the career lead in SEC KO returns... gone, non contact ACL.
? Jeff Driskel: Appendicitis - misses most of fall camp.
? Matt Jones: Viral infection. Misses Fall camp, loses 20 pounds, not even close to being the same guy as before.
In-game injuries were ridiculous too:
? At one point against Miami, UF was missing 4 OL starters in the 2nd half.
? Against LSU, DT Damien Jacobs goes down in the 2nd quarter, and with UF already missing Easley, they only 6 DL play the rest of the game, and they got worn out in the 2nd half of that eventual loss.
? Things were even worse the next week against Missouri, when Powell was also out, and Jacobs was still hurt, and UF only played 5 DL most of that game.
UF started three different QB's in 2013 and the only reason Mornhinweg wasn't hurt also is because Pease was merciful and barely threw the ball more than 5 yards after quick drops, and only when absolutely necessary once Skyler took over. Some of that also had to do with Skyler's noodle arm (which I think is kind of exaggerated negatively, it's not that bad) but really, there wasn't much else anyone can do.
To add insult to injury, Muschamp and company planned on surprising FSU with a wildcat package all day with Trey Burton, and after his first play, a 50 yard run, he got hurt and missed the rest of the game. That's just kind of how the 2013 season went for Florida. Just bad fricken luck all year long.
I think UF only played three really bad games last year though. I think they fought hard against LSU, Mizzou, FSU, UGA, and USCe, but they just didn't play well against Miami, Georgia Southern, and Vanderbilt.
Even with the injuries, UF should probably have won each of those (they outgained Vanderbilt and Miami by a lot, 413-212 against Miami and 344-183 against Vanderbilt. But UF had 9 turnovers and 7 sacks combined in those two games.
Oh and this happened...
Analysis of 2014 Gator Offense
Offensive coaches:
Chris Leak, Wide Receivers
Derek Lewis, Tight Ends
Kurt Roper, Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks
Mike Summers, Offensive Line
Brian White, Running Backs
Thoughts on the offensive coaches:
First of all, I think we can say, without a lot of hesitation, that this, on paper, looks to be the best offensive coaching staff that UF has had since about 2008. The only real questions are:
1. Can Chris Leak be an effective WR coach? Losing Joker Phillips probably helps the staff from a "teamwork" perspective, but there is no way Leak can replace the amount of experience Joker possessed when it came to actually teaching the WR's. All reports though, are that Leak and Roper work extremely well together, and that kind of teamwork between WR coach and OC hasn't been alive and well in Gainesville since Billy Gonzalez and Dan Mullen were working together. PS: Fun fact, Andre Debose has been on the team for 6 years and this is his 6th WR coach in that time. EGADS. Good luck Chris Leak.... history says your days are numbered....
2. How good is Kurt Roper? There has been a lot of debate on this point, very similar to when Pease was hired. How much of Roper's success was because of Cutcliffe? Time will tell. Based on how fast he was able to install the offense in the spring and all the positive reviews about the offense, optimism is high. That being said, Florida fans have a bit of learned helplessness when it comes to the offense now, so most won't believe the offense is better until they see it on the field. All evidence at this point is positive however.
3. How will the offensive line play? The offensive line has been, basically a shite storm of injuries and underachievement for Muschamp's entire tenure. Enter Mike Summers, one of the more respected OL coaches in the country. This one position has probably been the achilles heel of the UF teams in 2011 and 2013, but if Summers can bring the same kind of energy and resurgence that he brought to USC in 2013, then the entire offense will see marked improvement in 2014. And if that happens, UF's offense could improve dramatically.
Video of the offense:
Here are some videos of the Duke highlights from last year:
A good example of one of the rush formations is here at the 1:51 mark - note the B position player is lined up in the backfield, QB is in the shotgun, and there are 3 WR. UF will almost always line up with 3 WR under Roper - LINK
UF will also sometimes line up with 4 WR and also have the RB go out to catch a pass. Here is a good example from Duke vs North Carolina - LINK
The following video's first two plays show two things - first of all - Florida will definitely use play action passes with the B position in the backfield. Most teams will be forced to put at least 7 guys up by the LOS to stop the run, so that will leave 3 WR against 4 DB's, which means single coverage in different parts of the field depending on how the defense is playing (zone vs man, cover 3 vs cover 4 etc.) IT will be imperative that UF's WR win some one-on-one battles this year or this offense just will NOT work. That being said, they will have a lot of opportunities. LINK
Also in that same video, the 2nd play shows how UF is probably going to work most of the time in the red zone - an area that UF was really bad at last season only scoring about 68% of the time. LINK It's the same basic formation, but there will be a lot more running from the QB position. Don't be surprised if incoming true freshman Treon Harris doesn't get on to the field in these situations as a running QB. He is very elusive and makes good decisions on the read option. Of course, we will need to see how he acclimates when he arrives in the fall. Here is another example. LINK
Here's an example of Roper putting a player in motion and going 5 wide. LINK
Another red zone example - Driskel is going to be running A LOT in 2014 - LINK
Another basic running example - 5 OL, 1 B position, 1 RB, 3 WR. Teams without dominant Defensive lines will have to do this, to account for the QB possibly running, in order not to be outnumbered. That means the 3 WR are in single coverage. LINK
Another formation - 4 WR, all close to the OL. LINK
2014 University of Florida Football Preview
2013 Recap
I hated 2013 Florida football. It was painful. It was hard to watch.
Florida lost a ridiculous number of players to injury in 2013 - which was chronicled in detail here: Players missing games and snaps
It started in fall camp, and it impacted critically important players:
? Chaz Green: a guy that had started at RT for 2 years... gone.
? Andre Debose: Poised to have a break-out season, and already tied for the career lead in SEC KO returns... gone, non contact ACL.
? Jeff Driskel: Appendicitis - misses most of fall camp.
? Matt Jones: Viral infection. Misses Fall camp, loses 20 pounds, not even close to being the same guy as before.
In-game injuries were ridiculous too:
? At one point against Miami, UF was missing 4 OL starters in the 2nd half.
? Against LSU, DT Damien Jacobs goes down in the 2nd quarter, and with UF already missing Easley, they only 6 DL play the rest of the game, and they got worn out in the 2nd half of that eventual loss.
? Things were even worse the next week against Missouri, when Powell was also out, and Jacobs was still hurt, and UF only played 5 DL most of that game.
UF started three different QB's in 2013 and the only reason Mornhinweg wasn't hurt also is because Pease was merciful and barely threw the ball more than 5 yards after quick drops, and only when absolutely necessary once Skyler took over. Some of that also had to do with Skyler's noodle arm (which I think is kind of exaggerated negatively, it's not that bad) but really, there wasn't much else anyone can do.
To add insult to injury, Muschamp and company planned on surprising FSU with a wildcat package all day with Trey Burton, and after his first play, a 50 yard run, he got hurt and missed the rest of the game. That's just kind of how the 2013 season went for Florida. Just bad fricken luck all year long.
I think UF only played three really bad games last year though. I think they fought hard against LSU, Mizzou, FSU, UGA, and USCe, but they just didn't play well against Miami, Georgia Southern, and Vanderbilt.
Even with the injuries, UF should probably have won each of those (they outgained Vanderbilt and Miami by a lot, 413-212 against Miami and 344-183 against Vanderbilt. But UF had 9 turnovers and 7 sacks combined in those two games.
Oh and this happened...
Analysis of 2014 Gator Offense
Offensive coaches:
Chris Leak, Wide Receivers
Derek Lewis, Tight Ends
Kurt Roper, Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks
Mike Summers, Offensive Line
Brian White, Running Backs
Thoughts on the offensive coaches:
First of all, I think we can say, without a lot of hesitation, that this, on paper, looks to be the best offensive coaching staff that UF has had since about 2008. The only real questions are:
1. Can Chris Leak be an effective WR coach? Losing Joker Phillips probably helps the staff from a "teamwork" perspective, but there is no way Leak can replace the amount of experience Joker possessed when it came to actually teaching the WR's. All reports though, are that Leak and Roper work extremely well together, and that kind of teamwork between WR coach and OC hasn't been alive and well in Gainesville since Billy Gonzalez and Dan Mullen were working together. PS: Fun fact, Andre Debose has been on the team for 6 years and this is his 6th WR coach in that time. EGADS. Good luck Chris Leak.... history says your days are numbered....
2. How good is Kurt Roper? There has been a lot of debate on this point, very similar to when Pease was hired. How much of Roper's success was because of Cutcliffe? Time will tell. Based on how fast he was able to install the offense in the spring and all the positive reviews about the offense, optimism is high. That being said, Florida fans have a bit of learned helplessness when it comes to the offense now, so most won't believe the offense is better until they see it on the field. All evidence at this point is positive however.
3. How will the offensive line play? The offensive line has been, basically a shite storm of injuries and underachievement for Muschamp's entire tenure. Enter Mike Summers, one of the more respected OL coaches in the country. This one position has probably been the achilles heel of the UF teams in 2011 and 2013, but if Summers can bring the same kind of energy and resurgence that he brought to USC in 2013, then the entire offense will see marked improvement in 2014. And if that happens, UF's offense could improve dramatically.
Video of the offense:
Here are some videos of the Duke highlights from last year:
A good example of one of the rush formations is here at the 1:51 mark - note the B position player is lined up in the backfield, QB is in the shotgun, and there are 3 WR. UF will almost always line up with 3 WR under Roper - LINK
UF will also sometimes line up with 4 WR and also have the RB go out to catch a pass. Here is a good example from Duke vs North Carolina - LINK
The following video's first two plays show two things - first of all - Florida will definitely use play action passes with the B position in the backfield. Most teams will be forced to put at least 7 guys up by the LOS to stop the run, so that will leave 3 WR against 4 DB's, which means single coverage in different parts of the field depending on how the defense is playing (zone vs man, cover 3 vs cover 4 etc.) IT will be imperative that UF's WR win some one-on-one battles this year or this offense just will NOT work. That being said, they will have a lot of opportunities. LINK
Also in that same video, the 2nd play shows how UF is probably going to work most of the time in the red zone - an area that UF was really bad at last season only scoring about 68% of the time. LINK It's the same basic formation, but there will be a lot more running from the QB position. Don't be surprised if incoming true freshman Treon Harris doesn't get on to the field in these situations as a running QB. He is very elusive and makes good decisions on the read option. Of course, we will need to see how he acclimates when he arrives in the fall. Here is another example. LINK
Here's an example of Roper putting a player in motion and going 5 wide. LINK
Another red zone example - Driskel is going to be running A LOT in 2014 - LINK
Another basic running example - 5 OL, 1 B position, 1 RB, 3 WR. Teams without dominant Defensive lines will have to do this, to account for the QB possibly running, in order not to be outnumbered. That means the 3 WR are in single coverage. LINK
Another formation - 4 WR, all close to the OL. LINK
This post was edited on 8/13/14 at 8:10 am
2
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:16 pm to semotruman
Analysis of 2014 Gator Defense
Defensive Coaches and philosophy:
D.J. Durkin, Defensive Coordinator/LB
Brad Lawing, Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Line
Travaris Robinson, Defensive Backs
The Florida defense under Will Muschamp has finished in the top 10 nationally in total defense all three years he has been head coach. That is pretty impressive, especially when you consider the injury situation in 2013 and the general lack of depth in 2011.
For those that don't know, Florida lines up in the nickel a lot. Maybe 70% of the time, but they basically have a base 3-4 defense for lack of a better way of describing it. They typically will play 3 defensive linemen, 3 LBs, (Mike, Sam, Will) and then one hybrid LB/DE or "Buck" position who will predominantly rush the passer. Because of this, even in the nickel formation (where UF has 5 defensive backs) even though on TV it might look like they are lining up with 4 DL, they actually usually have 1 buck, 3 DL, 2 LB, and 5 DB. This allows for a lot of flexibility in the defense. UF plays predominantly man defense.
Florida in 2012 was one of the most dominant defenses in the entire country, and a lot of that was because of their toughness in the 2nd half. Muschamp's teams have proven to be very good at adapting, especially in the 2nd half, to what teams are trying to do. Last year in 2013, they had a horrible final 6 games, especially in the 2nd half, but that was primarily due to injuries and a lack of depth, especially in the front 7.
Here is an example against Miami of their basic nickel package - (note you can't see the 11th man, which is a safety that is playing deep) LINK
Example of Florida's nickel defense - It looks like a 3-3-5 that they're showing against LSU, but Ronald Powell, one of the Bucks, is standing up. There are 5 DB's 2 bucks really, but Fowler has his hand on the ground, 2 LB and 1 nose and 1 DT/DE in Bullard. LINK
Example of UF's based defense, 1 buck, 3 LB, 3 linemen, 4 Dbs. One of the corners is off the picture. LINK UF has 8 guys in the box here, against LSU. LINK
Great view of UF in their pressure man defense - LINK
UF doesn't blitz a ton, they prefer to get pressure with the front 4, but here is an example of the corner blitz they like to run sometimes - LINK
Areas to watch for 2014:
1. 3rd down defense
Florida's defense has consistently been among the best in the country in 3rd down defense. They were #2 in 2011 and #10 in 2012. However, they had a lot of trouble in the 2nd half of the 2013 season getting people off the field.
First 5 games - allowed 15 of 61 conversions (22%)
Final 7 games - allowed 36 of 89 conversions (41%)
And a lot of the 3rd down conversions were huge, clutch conversions, that UF could not afford given their lack of depth. That is something that UF is going to have to improve upon if they want to get back to having the best defense in the conference.
2. Rush defense
Florida needs to play tougher in 2014. The rush defense especially was vulnerable in the 2nd half of the season. Some of that was because of depth on the DL, but Mike Taylor and Antonio Morrison have got to play tougher against the run. I think the following pretty much sums up how the defense played most of the 2nd half of 2013:
3. Pass Rush and big plays
Florida only had 19 sacks (good for #94) and 18 take aways (#95 nationally) in 2013. They just didn't do a good job rushing the passer, and they didn't take advantage of turnover opportunities when they presented themselves. It just wasn't a big play defense in the 2nd half of the season. A lot of that was depth, but some of it was just execution. If UF wants to win the east they need more big plays.
Quick example against Missouri: Easy INT dropped
4. Youth in the secondary
The secondary has consistently been one of UF's best position groups under Will Muschamp. But that unit will be very much tested this year.
From a career experience perspective, UF has lost the following from the secondary between 2013 and 2014:
175 career games played, and 91 career starts. That is a ridiculous amount of experience to lose in the secondary.
The players were Louchiez Purifoy, Marcus Roberson, Jaylen Watkins, and Cody Riggs.
It is a testament to how good the secondary has been year after year, that people aren't looking for a huge drop off in this unit in 2014. Once again though, young players are stepping up. Duke Dawson and Jalen Tabor are both true freshmen that practiced and played well in the spring. Dawson has played so much above expectations that the fact that Tabor, a former 5 star, has been a bit inconsistent, doesn't even really matter, because he will be in a back up role. The good news is he played a lot better towards the end of spring. Many are predicting he will steal Dawson's starting spot by the end of Fall camp.
The safety position is also loaded with talent. But it's young. Only Gorman, a senior, really has a lot of starts. Marcus Maye has played a lot, but only started twice. He lost his starting job in 2013 against Miami after he gave up a long TD by blowing the coverage.
Everyone is saying Keanu Neal is the next great safety at Florida, but injuries held him back a bit in the spring, and Marcell Harris is big, fast, and scary. They are all young though. That youth will have to step up in a big way if UF wants to have the #1 PE defense in the SEC once again. (they were #1 in 2012 and 2013)
I don't know if it's worth mentioning, but having a guy like VH3, who may very well end up being one of the better DB's at Florida EVER, really does help.
Defensive Coaches and philosophy:
D.J. Durkin, Defensive Coordinator/LB
Brad Lawing, Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Line
Travaris Robinson, Defensive Backs
The Florida defense under Will Muschamp has finished in the top 10 nationally in total defense all three years he has been head coach. That is pretty impressive, especially when you consider the injury situation in 2013 and the general lack of depth in 2011.
For those that don't know, Florida lines up in the nickel a lot. Maybe 70% of the time, but they basically have a base 3-4 defense for lack of a better way of describing it. They typically will play 3 defensive linemen, 3 LBs, (Mike, Sam, Will) and then one hybrid LB/DE or "Buck" position who will predominantly rush the passer. Because of this, even in the nickel formation (where UF has 5 defensive backs) even though on TV it might look like they are lining up with 4 DL, they actually usually have 1 buck, 3 DL, 2 LB, and 5 DB. This allows for a lot of flexibility in the defense. UF plays predominantly man defense.
Florida in 2012 was one of the most dominant defenses in the entire country, and a lot of that was because of their toughness in the 2nd half. Muschamp's teams have proven to be very good at adapting, especially in the 2nd half, to what teams are trying to do. Last year in 2013, they had a horrible final 6 games, especially in the 2nd half, but that was primarily due to injuries and a lack of depth, especially in the front 7.
Here is an example against Miami of their basic nickel package - (note you can't see the 11th man, which is a safety that is playing deep) LINK
Example of Florida's nickel defense - It looks like a 3-3-5 that they're showing against LSU, but Ronald Powell, one of the Bucks, is standing up. There are 5 DB's 2 bucks really, but Fowler has his hand on the ground, 2 LB and 1 nose and 1 DT/DE in Bullard. LINK
Example of UF's based defense, 1 buck, 3 LB, 3 linemen, 4 Dbs. One of the corners is off the picture. LINK UF has 8 guys in the box here, against LSU. LINK
Great view of UF in their pressure man defense - LINK
UF doesn't blitz a ton, they prefer to get pressure with the front 4, but here is an example of the corner blitz they like to run sometimes - LINK
Areas to watch for 2014:
1. 3rd down defense
Florida's defense has consistently been among the best in the country in 3rd down defense. They were #2 in 2011 and #10 in 2012. However, they had a lot of trouble in the 2nd half of the 2013 season getting people off the field.
First 5 games - allowed 15 of 61 conversions (22%)
Final 7 games - allowed 36 of 89 conversions (41%)
And a lot of the 3rd down conversions were huge, clutch conversions, that UF could not afford given their lack of depth. That is something that UF is going to have to improve upon if they want to get back to having the best defense in the conference.
2. Rush defense
Florida needs to play tougher in 2014. The rush defense especially was vulnerable in the 2nd half of the season. Some of that was because of depth on the DL, but Mike Taylor and Antonio Morrison have got to play tougher against the run. I think the following pretty much sums up how the defense played most of the 2nd half of 2013:
3. Pass Rush and big plays
Florida only had 19 sacks (good for #94) and 18 take aways (#95 nationally) in 2013. They just didn't do a good job rushing the passer, and they didn't take advantage of turnover opportunities when they presented themselves. It just wasn't a big play defense in the 2nd half of the season. A lot of that was depth, but some of it was just execution. If UF wants to win the east they need more big plays.
Quick example against Missouri: Easy INT dropped
4. Youth in the secondary
The secondary has consistently been one of UF's best position groups under Will Muschamp. But that unit will be very much tested this year.
From a career experience perspective, UF has lost the following from the secondary between 2013 and 2014:
175 career games played, and 91 career starts. That is a ridiculous amount of experience to lose in the secondary.
The players were Louchiez Purifoy, Marcus Roberson, Jaylen Watkins, and Cody Riggs.
It is a testament to how good the secondary has been year after year, that people aren't looking for a huge drop off in this unit in 2014. Once again though, young players are stepping up. Duke Dawson and Jalen Tabor are both true freshmen that practiced and played well in the spring. Dawson has played so much above expectations that the fact that Tabor, a former 5 star, has been a bit inconsistent, doesn't even really matter, because he will be in a back up role. The good news is he played a lot better towards the end of spring. Many are predicting he will steal Dawson's starting spot by the end of Fall camp.
The safety position is also loaded with talent. But it's young. Only Gorman, a senior, really has a lot of starts. Marcus Maye has played a lot, but only started twice. He lost his starting job in 2013 against Miami after he gave up a long TD by blowing the coverage.
Everyone is saying Keanu Neal is the next great safety at Florida, but injuries held him back a bit in the spring, and Marcell Harris is big, fast, and scary. They are all young though. That youth will have to step up in a big way if UF wants to have the #1 PE defense in the SEC once again. (they were #1 in 2012 and 2013)
I don't know if it's worth mentioning, but having a guy like VH3, who may very well end up being one of the better DB's at Florida EVER, really does help.
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:17 pm to semotruman
Analysis of 2014 Gator Special Teams
2013 Review
The 2013 special teams were not as bad as people make out. Yeah, the kicking game, specifically FG kicking, was not good, but the rest of the special teams were solid, just like 2012. Here are the stats from 2013:
2013 KR Defense: #7 nationally, 18.00 Yards per return
2013 PR Defense: #13 nationally, 3.77 Yards per return
2013 Kick returns: #10, 24.82 yards per return, 1 TD
2013 Punt returns: #37, 10.36 yards per return
That is pretty damn solid, and they did that without their best return man (Andre Debose) who was out all year and they lost some of their best special teams players, (Nick Washington, Jeremi Powell, Keanu Neal) to injury.
Areas where they were not good
Punting: #62 nationally, 36.78 yards per punt
That is REALLY surprising when you consider Kyle Christy broke Florida records with his amazing 2012 campaign and 45.8 average punt, and then really came in not playing well in 2013 and was eventually benched for true freshman Johnny Townsend.
Well, it appears things are looking better for Christy, who has reclaimed his starting spot, so things look brighter in 2014, but they weren't so great in 2013.
Kicking
OK, so Florida was 8-8 on FG's kicks between 20-29 yards. That's great. Yippy. That's like an extra point.
Florida was 3-6 on FG's kicked form 30-39 yards. Not good. Florida was 1-8 on FG's kicked from further than 40 yards away. That is REALLY BAD. Especially for a team that couldn't score.
For those that suck at math, that means UF's 3 kickers they tried, were a combined 12-22. That's really bad.
Here's an amazing stat for you about how unlucky Florida was last year - Florida's opponents were 22-23 on FG's against them last year. That is nuts. Opponents were 8-8 from 40 yards or more. Also hilariously high. The only FG that an opponent didn't make was the 1 that UF blocked.
2014 prospects
The KR and PR defense should both be very good units again. UF hired Coleman Hutzler to coach the special teams and he has a good pedigree doing it, and he has a lot of fast, tough athletes to choose from on the defense teams. Those units have all been consistently good for Florida for many many years, and no one sees that changing, especially with another strong 2014 recruiting class coming in with lots of people hungry to see the field.
The KR and PR units both look dangerous, although it is still unclear who exactly will return punts. It would be great to have VH3 back there, but so scary also, because you really don't want to see him get injured. It'll probably be Alvin Bailey or Demarcus Robinson, and in either case, it's a big play waiting to happen. Neither have done it before in a live game, so it'll be interesting to see if they can handle the pressure.
Muschamp has said he is very confident in Austin Hardin as the 2014 kicker. He was only 4-12 in 2013, but he was 4-4 in the spring game and Muschamp said at SEC media days that he is very confident from inside the 30 yard line (about a 47 yard kick). So things are looking up there.
The punting situation is going to be a strength in 2014, with Christy regaining his form and retaking the starting position. The coaches hope to redshirt Townsend.
All in all, this should be a very strong special teams unit once again.
Bonus Stat
Blocked kicks: Florida blocked 12 punts/kicks between 2011 and 2012. They only blocked 2 in 2013, but also had 2 blocked. Hopefully UF will get back to having big plays in this department in 2014.
2013 Review
The 2013 special teams were not as bad as people make out. Yeah, the kicking game, specifically FG kicking, was not good, but the rest of the special teams were solid, just like 2012. Here are the stats from 2013:
2013 KR Defense: #7 nationally, 18.00 Yards per return
2013 PR Defense: #13 nationally, 3.77 Yards per return
2013 Kick returns: #10, 24.82 yards per return, 1 TD
2013 Punt returns: #37, 10.36 yards per return
That is pretty damn solid, and they did that without their best return man (Andre Debose) who was out all year and they lost some of their best special teams players, (Nick Washington, Jeremi Powell, Keanu Neal) to injury.
Areas where they were not good
Punting: #62 nationally, 36.78 yards per punt
That is REALLY surprising when you consider Kyle Christy broke Florida records with his amazing 2012 campaign and 45.8 average punt, and then really came in not playing well in 2013 and was eventually benched for true freshman Johnny Townsend.
Well, it appears things are looking better for Christy, who has reclaimed his starting spot, so things look brighter in 2014, but they weren't so great in 2013.
Kicking
OK, so Florida was 8-8 on FG's kicks between 20-29 yards. That's great. Yippy. That's like an extra point.
Florida was 3-6 on FG's kicked form 30-39 yards. Not good. Florida was 1-8 on FG's kicked from further than 40 yards away. That is REALLY BAD. Especially for a team that couldn't score.
For those that suck at math, that means UF's 3 kickers they tried, were a combined 12-22. That's really bad.
Here's an amazing stat for you about how unlucky Florida was last year - Florida's opponents were 22-23 on FG's against them last year. That is nuts. Opponents were 8-8 from 40 yards or more. Also hilariously high. The only FG that an opponent didn't make was the 1 that UF blocked.
2014 prospects
The KR and PR defense should both be very good units again. UF hired Coleman Hutzler to coach the special teams and he has a good pedigree doing it, and he has a lot of fast, tough athletes to choose from on the defense teams. Those units have all been consistently good for Florida for many many years, and no one sees that changing, especially with another strong 2014 recruiting class coming in with lots of people hungry to see the field.
The KR and PR units both look dangerous, although it is still unclear who exactly will return punts. It would be great to have VH3 back there, but so scary also, because you really don't want to see him get injured. It'll probably be Alvin Bailey or Demarcus Robinson, and in either case, it's a big play waiting to happen. Neither have done it before in a live game, so it'll be interesting to see if they can handle the pressure.
Muschamp has said he is very confident in Austin Hardin as the 2014 kicker. He was only 4-12 in 2013, but he was 4-4 in the spring game and Muschamp said at SEC media days that he is very confident from inside the 30 yard line (about a 47 yard kick). So things are looking up there.
The punting situation is going to be a strength in 2014, with Christy regaining his form and retaking the starting position. The coaches hope to redshirt Townsend.
All in all, this should be a very strong special teams unit once again.
Bonus Stat
Blocked kicks: Florida blocked 12 punts/kicks between 2011 and 2012. They only blocked 2 in 2013, but also had 2 blocked. Hopefully UF will get back to having big plays in this department in 2014.
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:18 pm to semotruman
2014 Projected 2 Deep - Offense
*Players in bold have previously started games*
Quarterback
Jeff Driskel, RS JR, 6’4, 230, 20 games played, 15 starts
214-340, 62.9%, 2271 yards, 14 TD, 10 INT
151 rushes, 469 yards, 5 TD
Skyler Mornhinweg, RS SO, 6’3, 212, 3 games played, 3 starts
44-63, 69.8%, 344 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
6 rushes, -5 yards
Running Back
Kelvin Taylor, SO, 5’10, 209, 10 games played, 4 starts
111 rushes, 508 yards, 4.6 YPC, 4 TD
5 receptions, 37 yards
Mack Brown, RS SR, 5’11, 210, 37 games played, 2 starts
188 rushes, 710 yards, 3.8 YPC, 4 TD
14 receptions, 57 yards
Matt Jones, JR, 6’2, 235, 17 games played, 5 starts
131 rushes, 614 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD
8 receptions, 35 yards
-OR-
Adam Lane, RS FR, 5’7, 222, has not played
B Position/Tight End
Jake McGee, RS SR, 6’6, 255, 36 games played, 6 starts (All at Virginia)
71 receptions, 769 yards, 7 TD
Tevin Westbrook, SR, 6’5, 257, 28 games played, 3 starts
3 receptions, 30 yards
Clay Burton, SR, 6’4, 248, 25 games played, 15 starts
3 receptions, 24 yards
-OR-
Hunter Joyer, SR, 5’11, 232, 38 games played, 11 starts
23 rushes, 101 yards, 2 TD
6 receptions, 29 yards, 1 TD
-OR-
DeAndre Goolsby, FR, 6’4, 230, Has not played
X Receiver
Quinton Dunbar, RS SR, 6’2, 195, 38 games played, 25 games started
90 receptions, 1147 yards, 6 TD
Chris Thomspon, SO, 6’0, 170, 7 games played, 1 game started
2 receptions, 13 yards
-OR-
Andre Debose, RS SR, 6’0, 190, 31 games played, 8 games started
29 receptions, 543 yards, 4 TD
Y Receiver
Ahmad Fulwood, SO, 6’4, 202, 12 games played
17 receptions, 127 yards, 1 TD
-OR-
Demarcus Robinson, SO, 6’1, 205, 7 games played
5 receptions, 23 yards
Slot Receiver
Lattroy Pittman, JR, 6’0, 208, 20 games played, 1 start
4 receptions, 24 yards
Valdez Showers, RS JR, 6’0, 194, 10 games played (on offense)
18 receptions, 102 yards, 1 TD
12 rushes, 103 yards
Left Tackle
DJ Humphries, JR, 6’5, 290, 19 games played, 9 starts
Roderick Johnson, RS FR, 6’5, 308, has not played
Left Guard
Tyler Moore, RS JR, 6’5, 325, 16 games played, 9 starts
Drew Sarvary, JR, 6’6, 310, has not played (JUCO)
Center
Max Garcia, RS SR, 6’5, 294, 26 games played, 24 starts
Trip Thurman, RS JR, 6’5, 305, 15 games played
Right Guard
Trenton Brown, SR, 6’8, 350, 12 games played, 5 starts
Drew Sarvary, JR, 6’6, 310, has not played (JUCO)
Right Tackle
Chaz Green, RS SR, 6’5, 305, 20 games played, 20 starts
Roderick Johnson, RS FR, 6’5, 308, has not played
*Players in bold have previously started games*
Quarterback
Jeff Driskel, RS JR, 6’4, 230, 20 games played, 15 starts
214-340, 62.9%, 2271 yards, 14 TD, 10 INT
151 rushes, 469 yards, 5 TD
Skyler Mornhinweg, RS SO, 6’3, 212, 3 games played, 3 starts
44-63, 69.8%, 344 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
6 rushes, -5 yards
Running Back
Kelvin Taylor, SO, 5’10, 209, 10 games played, 4 starts
111 rushes, 508 yards, 4.6 YPC, 4 TD
5 receptions, 37 yards
Mack Brown, RS SR, 5’11, 210, 37 games played, 2 starts
188 rushes, 710 yards, 3.8 YPC, 4 TD
14 receptions, 57 yards
Matt Jones, JR, 6’2, 235, 17 games played, 5 starts
131 rushes, 614 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD
8 receptions, 35 yards
-OR-
Adam Lane, RS FR, 5’7, 222, has not played
B Position/Tight End
Jake McGee, RS SR, 6’6, 255, 36 games played, 6 starts (All at Virginia)
71 receptions, 769 yards, 7 TD
Tevin Westbrook, SR, 6’5, 257, 28 games played, 3 starts
3 receptions, 30 yards
Clay Burton, SR, 6’4, 248, 25 games played, 15 starts
3 receptions, 24 yards
-OR-
Hunter Joyer, SR, 5’11, 232, 38 games played, 11 starts
23 rushes, 101 yards, 2 TD
6 receptions, 29 yards, 1 TD
-OR-
DeAndre Goolsby, FR, 6’4, 230, Has not played
X Receiver
Quinton Dunbar, RS SR, 6’2, 195, 38 games played, 25 games started
90 receptions, 1147 yards, 6 TD
Chris Thomspon, SO, 6’0, 170, 7 games played, 1 game started
2 receptions, 13 yards
-OR-
Andre Debose, RS SR, 6’0, 190, 31 games played, 8 games started
29 receptions, 543 yards, 4 TD
Y Receiver
Ahmad Fulwood, SO, 6’4, 202, 12 games played
17 receptions, 127 yards, 1 TD
-OR-
Demarcus Robinson, SO, 6’1, 205, 7 games played
5 receptions, 23 yards
Slot Receiver
Lattroy Pittman, JR, 6’0, 208, 20 games played, 1 start
4 receptions, 24 yards
Valdez Showers, RS JR, 6’0, 194, 10 games played (on offense)
18 receptions, 102 yards, 1 TD
12 rushes, 103 yards
Left Tackle
DJ Humphries, JR, 6’5, 290, 19 games played, 9 starts
Roderick Johnson, RS FR, 6’5, 308, has not played
Left Guard
Tyler Moore, RS JR, 6’5, 325, 16 games played, 9 starts
Drew Sarvary, JR, 6’6, 310, has not played (JUCO)
Center
Max Garcia, RS SR, 6’5, 294, 26 games played, 24 starts
Trip Thurman, RS JR, 6’5, 305, 15 games played
Right Guard
Trenton Brown, SR, 6’8, 350, 12 games played, 5 starts
Drew Sarvary, JR, 6’6, 310, has not played (JUCO)
Right Tackle
Chaz Green, RS SR, 6’5, 305, 20 games played, 20 starts
Roderick Johnson, RS FR, 6’5, 308, has not played
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:19 pm to semotruman
2014 Projected 2 Deep - Defense
*Players in bold have previously started games*
Buck
Dante Fowler Jr., JR, 6’3, 261, 25 games played, 13 starts
80 tackles, 18.5 TFL, 6 sacks, 1 PBU, 3 FF, 1 FR
Alex McCalister, RS SO, 6’6, 246, 7 games played
3 tackles
Nose Tackle
Leon Orr, RS SR, 6’5, 305, 34 games played, 8 starts
46 tackles, 11 TFL, 4.5 Sacks, 1 PBU, 2 FR
Jay-nard Bostwick, RS FR, 6’3, 294, has not played
Defensive Tackle
Darious Cummings, SR, 6’1, 297, 11 games played, 6 starts
15 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 Sack, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 1 FF
Caleb Brantley, RS FR, 6’2, 295, has not played
Defensive End
Jonathan Bullard, JR, 6’3, 270, 24 games played, 10 starts
60 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 PBU
Bryan Cox Jr., RS SO, 6’3, 260, 8 games played
5 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks
SAM
Neiron Ball, RS SR, 6’3, 230, 36 games played, 9 starts
45 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 2 FR
Matt Rolin, RS FR, Has not played
MIKE
Jarrad Davis, SO, 6’2, 225, 12 games played, 1 start
24 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 PBU, 1 FF, 1 punt block
Michael Taylor, SR, 6’0, 227, 36 games played, 12 starts
130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 INT, 2 PBU, 3 FR, 1 FF
Alex Anzalone, SO, 6’3, 236, 10 games played (ST mostly)
2 tackles
WILL
Antonio Morrison, JR, 6’1, 222, 21 games played, 11 starts
90 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 1 FF
Daneil McMillan, SO, 6’1, 225, 9 games played (ST mostly)
2 tackles
Jeremi Powell, RS SO, 6’0, 215, 7 games played (ST mostly)
4 tackles
Cornerback
Vernon Hargreaves, SO, 5’11, 194, 12 games played, 10 starts
38 tackles, 3 INT, 11 PBU
Jalen Tabor, FR, 6'0, 193, has not played
Cornerback
Duke Dawson, FR, 5’11, 194, has not played
Jalen Tabor, FR, 6’0, 193, has not played
Nickleback
Brian Poole, JR, 5’10, 206, 23 games played, 6 starts
35 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 INT, 3 PBU
Duke Dawson, FR, 5’11, 194, has not played
Dimeback
Marcus Maye, RS SO, 6’0, 203, 12 games played, 2 starts
16 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT
Nick Washington, 6’0, 190, RS FR, played 2 games ST
Safety
Jabari Gorman, SR, 5’10, 184, 37 games played, 5 starts
58 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 2 INT, 7 PBU, 1 FR, 2 FF
Keanu Neal, SO, 6’1, 203, 12 games played (mostly ST)
5 tackles
Safety
Marcus Maye, RS SO, 6’0, 203, 12 games played, 2 starts
16 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT
Marcell Harris, 6’1, 208, RS FR, has not played
*Players in bold have previously started games*
Buck
Dante Fowler Jr., JR, 6’3, 261, 25 games played, 13 starts
80 tackles, 18.5 TFL, 6 sacks, 1 PBU, 3 FF, 1 FR
Alex McCalister, RS SO, 6’6, 246, 7 games played
3 tackles
Nose Tackle
Leon Orr, RS SR, 6’5, 305, 34 games played, 8 starts
46 tackles, 11 TFL, 4.5 Sacks, 1 PBU, 2 FR
Jay-nard Bostwick, RS FR, 6’3, 294, has not played
Defensive Tackle
Darious Cummings, SR, 6’1, 297, 11 games played, 6 starts
15 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 Sack, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 1 FF
Caleb Brantley, RS FR, 6’2, 295, has not played
Defensive End
Jonathan Bullard, JR, 6’3, 270, 24 games played, 10 starts
60 tackles, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 PBU
Bryan Cox Jr., RS SO, 6’3, 260, 8 games played
5 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks
SAM
Neiron Ball, RS SR, 6’3, 230, 36 games played, 9 starts
45 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 2 FR
Matt Rolin, RS FR, Has not played
MIKE
Jarrad Davis, SO, 6’2, 225, 12 games played, 1 start
24 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 PBU, 1 FF, 1 punt block
Michael Taylor, SR, 6’0, 227, 36 games played, 12 starts
130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 INT, 2 PBU, 3 FR, 1 FF
Alex Anzalone, SO, 6’3, 236, 10 games played (ST mostly)
2 tackles
WILL
Antonio Morrison, JR, 6’1, 222, 21 games played, 11 starts
90 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 1 FF
Daneil McMillan, SO, 6’1, 225, 9 games played (ST mostly)
2 tackles
Jeremi Powell, RS SO, 6’0, 215, 7 games played (ST mostly)
4 tackles
Cornerback
Vernon Hargreaves, SO, 5’11, 194, 12 games played, 10 starts
38 tackles, 3 INT, 11 PBU
Jalen Tabor, FR, 6'0, 193, has not played
Cornerback
Duke Dawson, FR, 5’11, 194, has not played
Jalen Tabor, FR, 6’0, 193, has not played
Nickleback
Brian Poole, JR, 5’10, 206, 23 games played, 6 starts
35 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 INT, 3 PBU
Duke Dawson, FR, 5’11, 194, has not played
Dimeback
Marcus Maye, RS SO, 6’0, 203, 12 games played, 2 starts
16 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT
Nick Washington, 6’0, 190, RS FR, played 2 games ST
Safety
Jabari Gorman, SR, 5’10, 184, 37 games played, 5 starts
58 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 2 INT, 7 PBU, 1 FR, 2 FF
Keanu Neal, SO, 6’1, 203, 12 games played (mostly ST)
5 tackles
Safety
Marcus Maye, RS SO, 6’0, 203, 12 games played, 2 starts
16 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT
Marcell Harris, 6’1, 208, RS FR, has not played
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:20 pm to semotruman
2014 Season Outlook
Keys for 2014
1. STAY HEALTHY! Especially at QB and the OL. If UF stays healthy there they will be hard to beat.
2. Protect the football! If Florida can do that, even if they don't force a ton of turnovers, they will be hard to beat.
-2011 and 2013, 11-14 overall record - TO margin = -14
-2012 = 11-2 overall, +15 TO margin
3. Be luckier! Buy some lucky rabbits feet, wear your underwear inside out, hats backwards, put pennies in the corners of the football complex, don't walk underneath ladders or break mirrors... whatever you have to do... Florida just needs a few luckier bounces in 2014. 2013 was just a full season of bad bounces, bad luck, and general misfortune.
Season Projection
Look, even if the offense comes together, the defense plays lights out, and special teams improves from last season, UF's biggest problem might be its schedule.
Road games @ Alabama and @ Florida State at this point look to be likely losses. Not to mention games against Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia, and its annual East-West clash vs. LSU.
However, the Missouri, South Carolina, and LSU games are all in the Swamp. With the Georgia game in Jacksonville, four of UF's six toughest games are in the Swamp (or in close to it).
UF will definitely better this season. 8 wins should definitely be possible, with 9 wins not that far fetched. If UF wins 10+ games this season, Muschamp should be named Coach of the Year without a doubt.
Three more weeks and UF football will be back...
Keys for 2014
1. STAY HEALTHY! Especially at QB and the OL. If UF stays healthy there they will be hard to beat.
2. Protect the football! If Florida can do that, even if they don't force a ton of turnovers, they will be hard to beat.
-2011 and 2013, 11-14 overall record - TO margin = -14
-2012 = 11-2 overall, +15 TO margin
3. Be luckier! Buy some lucky rabbits feet, wear your underwear inside out, hats backwards, put pennies in the corners of the football complex, don't walk underneath ladders or break mirrors... whatever you have to do... Florida just needs a few luckier bounces in 2014. 2013 was just a full season of bad bounces, bad luck, and general misfortune.
Season Projection
Look, even if the offense comes together, the defense plays lights out, and special teams improves from last season, UF's biggest problem might be its schedule.
Road games @ Alabama and @ Florida State at this point look to be likely losses. Not to mention games against Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia, and its annual East-West clash vs. LSU.
However, the Missouri, South Carolina, and LSU games are all in the Swamp. With the Georgia game in Jacksonville, four of UF's six toughest games are in the Swamp (or in close to it).
UF will definitely better this season. 8 wins should definitely be possible, with 9 wins not that far fetched. If UF wins 10+ games this season, Muschamp should be named Coach of the Year without a doubt.
Three more weeks and UF football will be back...
Posted on 8/11/14 at 5:58 pm to semotruman
The problem for Muschamp is that 8 wins is probably the worst case scenario for the future of the program at this point as all it does is buy him another season (assuming the 8 includes a win over UGA- FSU is the last game of the year and Boom would likely be fired prior to it making a win irrelevant) with an even hotter seat (essentially making 2015 an Atlanta or bust season), 9 wins and he gets some breathing room, less than 8 and it doesn't really matter how the team looks, he's done.
Will Muschamp has dug himself such a massive hole that he essentially needs to win 10 games or somehow get to Atlanta with 9 wins in order to be even close to secure going into 2015. Is Florida the best candidate in the SEC to have a massive turnaround this year? Yeah, like Mizzou last season (but to an even greater extent) Florida gets a ton of talent back, and like Auburn last year Florida shifts from a pro style attack to a spread option hurry up, but would anyone bet on it?
I mean the Vegas over/under is 7.5 and yes on paper it looks like free money (4 gimmes in EKU, EMU, Idaho and UK; 3 60-40 games in UT, Vandy and Mizzou, 3 tossups in UGA, USC, and LSU and two 35-65 games at Bama and at FSU) but deep down there's something about Muschamp that screams- "watch out, I'll be an elite coach someday but it wont be here"
Will Muschamp has dug himself such a massive hole that he essentially needs to win 10 games or somehow get to Atlanta with 9 wins in order to be even close to secure going into 2015. Is Florida the best candidate in the SEC to have a massive turnaround this year? Yeah, like Mizzou last season (but to an even greater extent) Florida gets a ton of talent back, and like Auburn last year Florida shifts from a pro style attack to a spread option hurry up, but would anyone bet on it?
I mean the Vegas over/under is 7.5 and yes on paper it looks like free money (4 gimmes in EKU, EMU, Idaho and UK; 3 60-40 games in UT, Vandy and Mizzou, 3 tossups in UGA, USC, and LSU and two 35-65 games at Bama and at FSU) but deep down there's something about Muschamp that screams- "watch out, I'll be an elite coach someday but it wont be here"
This post was edited on 8/11/14 at 6:01 pm
Posted on 8/11/14 at 6:33 pm to socraticsilence
If he wins 8 or more games, Foley will give him a contract extension to end the negative recruiting. He will either leave the 2014 season without a job, or with a contract extension.
There won't be any middle ground.
There won't be any middle ground.
Posted on 8/11/14 at 6:37 pm to semotruman
Good stuff, Semo 
Posted on 8/11/14 at 6:39 pm to slayerxing
Great work.
Mornhinweg won't be the backup QB though.
Mornhinweg won't be the backup QB though.
Posted on 8/11/14 at 6:52 pm to socraticsilence
I don't think I really understood or comprehended just how bad last season was for UF until reading this preview ... which felt more like a review.
Posted on 8/11/14 at 6:56 pm to semotruman
Posted on 8/11/14 at 6:59 pm to Phat Phil
So you're an FSU fan now?
9 in a row, will do that to you... I guess?
9 in a row, will do that to you... I guess?
Posted on 8/11/14 at 7:15 pm to Phat Phil
WRU!!
This post was edited on 8/11/14 at 7:19 pm
Posted on 8/11/14 at 8:14 pm to bigDgator
I must say, wow what an egregious targeting job by the DB.
Posted on 8/11/14 at 8:38 pm to rockytop627
There was no such thing back then. Your job was to seperate the ball from the reciever. This was actually ruled a catch and fumble.
Posted on 8/11/14 at 9:00 pm to semotruman
We goin to da 'ship. 
Posted on 8/11/14 at 9:12 pm to semotruman
good stuff i hope Florida gets good again so the lsu game can be at night
Posted on 8/11/14 at 9:51 pm to slayerxing
If he gets an extension for 8 wins it better come with zero buyout, I mean I guess that would leave him open to being poached but if that happens so be it.
Posted on 8/11/14 at 11:10 pm to socraticsilence
This year will be the end of the stupid hotseat crap. Boom will have the Gators angry and ready to come out fighting. Trip to Tuscaloosa? No problem...Bama way over rated and Coker or whoever plays QB will have lots of grass stains on their azz. LSU, Mizzou & USC in the Swamp? No problem. WLOCP? No problem and it will be one sided all Gators. 11-1 or 12-0.
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