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Hurricane Arthur-11AM-Hurricane Warning- NC/SC | 2014 Hurricane Thread
Posted on 6/30/14 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 6/30/14 at 3:28 pm
I figured this board covers a large area affected by tropical weather so Y'all should get info too...
Glossary of terms we use
Model Sites:
LINK
LINK
Chances of tropical formation:
0-24 hrs
24-48 hrs
sea surface temperatures:
Glossary of terms we use
Model Sites:
LINK
LINK
Chances of tropical formation:
0-24 hrs
24-48 hrs
sea surface temperatures:
This post was edited on 7/3/14 at 10:59 am
Posted on 6/30/14 at 3:29 pm to GEAUXmedic
INVEST 91L
This one could be a TD by this afternoon or greater, at which point TS Watches would go up for NE/Central Florida per NHC
This one could be a TD by this afternoon or greater, at which point TS Watches would go up for NE/Central Florida per NHC
quote:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure east of Florida.
Updated: An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is
investigating the area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east
of Melbourne, Florida. While the low is well defined, the
associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational
threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories.
Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development,
and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of
the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression.
Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that peak sustained
winds with the low are about 30-35 mph. The low is moving
southwestward at around 5 mph, but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday when it will be near the east
coast of Florida. If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a
tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central
or northern Atlantic coast of Florida. A turn toward the northeast
near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
This post was edited on 7/2/14 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 6/30/14 at 3:32 pm to GEAUXmedic
This shite better not mess anything up in Freeport Going in July
Posted on 6/30/14 at 4:38 pm to au21tigers
Here's what one model output says will happen:
LINK
LINK
Posted on 6/30/14 at 5:56 pm to GEAUXmedic
This shite better not frick with this weekends race.
Posted on 6/30/14 at 7:03 pm to jefffan
This post was edited on 6/30/14 at 7:34 pm
Posted on 6/30/14 at 10:19 pm to GEAUXmedic
First Tropical Depression of the season!
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
This post was edited on 6/30/14 at 10:30 pm
Posted on 6/30/14 at 10:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
Oh yay. Headed to Tampa for the 4th.
Posted on 7/1/14 at 10:29 am to WhistlinDixie15
First Tropical Storm!
Posted on 7/1/14 at 11:13 am to GEAUXmedic
No chance of this heading into the Gulf, right?
Posted on 7/1/14 at 11:37 am to rbWarEagle
quote:
No chance of this heading into the Gulf, right?
Highly unlikely
Noon Update
This post was edited on 7/1/14 at 11:40 am
Posted on 7/1/14 at 11:39 am to rbWarEagle
quote:
No chance of this heading into the Gulf, right?
We'll probably get one eventually but not this one
Posted on 7/1/14 at 11:40 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Highly unlikely
Good, The panhandle is on a pretty good run of good luck since Ivan. Hopefully it stays that way.
Posted on 7/1/14 at 1:02 pm to Prettyboy Floyd
It's the beginning of July. The big ones don't usually come until August and September, so don't jinx it.
Posted on 7/1/14 at 6:40 pm to GEAUXmedic
This post was edited on 7/1/14 at 6:57 pm
Posted on 7/1/14 at 7:42 pm to GEAUXmedic
Evening video update:
LINK
LINK
Posted on 7/1/14 at 8:22 pm to GEAUXmedic
Here you can see how the storm formed throughout the day.. pretty rare and awesome to be able to see it on radar cause they usually form well away from land
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