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Looking deeper at wins over 'ranked' foes

Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:08 pm
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37573 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:08 pm
https://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/83101/looking-deeper-at-wins-over-ranked-foes

quote:

Excerpted as follows from link above:

By Chris Low | ESPN.com

Just about everybody keeps track of a team or coach's record against ranked opponents.

It's a statistic that can be skewed because if you play a ranked team in the first few weeks of the season that bombs the rest of the way, does that really count as a quality win? For example, Florida was a top-10 team in both polls heading into the 2013 season and finished 4-8.

The most accurate gauge if you're tracking wins against ranked opponents is to add up those wins against teams that finish the season ranked in the final polls. We at the SEC blog have done that over the last three seasons, and some of the results are telling.

No SEC coach has more wins over the past three seasons against teams that finished the season ranked than the Ol' Ball Coach.

South Carolina has the best record (12-3) against teams that finished the 2011-13 seasons ranked in either the Associated Press or USA Today coaches' polls. The Gamecocks were 5-0 last season and beat three teams -- Clemson, Missouri and UCF -- that finished in the top 10 in one of the final polls. Over the past three seasons, the Gamecocks are also an impressive 5-2 against top-10 teams in the final polls.

Only three SEC teams over the past three seasons have finished above .500 against teams that finished the season ranked nationally. In addition to South Carolina, Alabama is 8-4 during that stretch and LSU 9-5.

On the flip side, there are three SEC teams over the past three seasons that have failed to beat a team ranked nationally in the final polls -- Kentucky (0-13), Mississippi State (0-15) and Vanderbilt (0-12).

Even though the Commodores won nine games overall each of the past two seasons for the first time in history under former coach James Franklin, who's now at Penn State, they didn't beat a team either of those seasons that finished ranked in the final polls. Vanderbilt's last win over a team that finished the season ranked in the Top 25 came during the 2008 season, a 23-17 win over an Ole Miss team that finished 14th that year in the AP poll.

Alabama and Vanderbilt have played the fewest games against ranked opponents in the final polls over the past three seasons, each with 12 games. Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee have played the most, each with 17 games.

Nobody in the league has played more games against top-10 foes in the final polls over the past three seasons than Tennessee. The Vols are 1-12 with the lone win coming last season against South Carolina, which finished fourth nationally. LSU has six wins over top-10 teams in the final polls over the past three seasons, which is tops in the SEC during that span.

Continued in link above and here: LINK



1. South Carolina: 12-3, .800 (5-2)
2. Alabama: 8-4, .667 (4-4)
3. LSU: 9-5, .643 (6-5)
4. Texas A&M: 5-10, .333 (1-6)
5. Georgia: 5-11, .312 (2-9)
6. Florida: 5-12, .294 (3-7)
7. Auburn: 4-13, .235 (3-8)
8. Missouri: 3-12, .200 (0-8)
9. Arkansas: 2-11, .154 (1-8)
10. Ole Miss: 2-15, .118 (0-9)
10. Tennessee: 2-15, .118 (1-12)
12. Vanderbilt: 0-12, .000 (0-8)
13. Kentucky: 0-13, .000 (0-8)
14. Mississippi State: 0-15, .000 (0-9)
Posted by GeorgeReymond
Buckhead
Member since Jan 2013
10155 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:10 pm to
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
43700 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:14 pm to
ahhhemmm

Game set match

Alabama and Vanderbilt have played the fewest games against ranked opponents in the final polls over the past three seasons, each with 12 games
Posted by weagle99
Member since Nov 2011
35893 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:16 pm to
South Carolina has never beaten Auburn in SEC play.

OBC is a boss.

Bert is fat.
Posted by Evolved Simian
Bushwood Country Club
Member since Sep 2010
20465 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:17 pm to
quote:

2. Alabama: 8-4, .667 (4-4)
3. LSU: 9-5, .643 (6-5)



What we always knew. Game. Set. Match.
Posted by Cheese Grits
Wherever I lay my hat is my home
Member since Apr 2012
54613 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:18 pm to
quote:

anderbilt's last win over a team that finished the season ranked in the Top 25 came during the 2008 season, a 23-17 win over an Ole Miss team that finished 14th that year in the AP poll.


Chris Low trolling Ole Miss!
Posted by LSUNV
In the woods or on the water
Member since Feb 2011
22422 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:21 pm to
There is a lot moe data to that article than just the cherry picked stuff

Going along with the cherry picking, LSU has six wins over top-10 teams in the final polls over the past three seasons, which is tops in the SEC during that span.
This post was edited on 5/14/14 at 10:24 pm
Posted by OBReb6
Memphissippi
Member since Jul 2010
37672 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:24 pm to
quote:

14. Mississippi State: 0-15, .000 (0-9)

Lulz
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37573 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:25 pm to
quote:

There is a lot moe data to that article than just the cherry picked stuff


I could not have followed Chicken's rules any better than I did with that "excerpt" not "cherry pick."

I encourage everyone to read it all, but I did all I could to get them there.
Posted by kilo
Member since Oct 2011
27421 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:30 pm to
quote:

South Carolina has the best record (12-3) against teams that finished the 2011-13 seasons ranked in either the Associated Press or USA Today coaches' polls.


Its not this stat that sinks the GameCocks, its the record against teams not in the top 25 that has killed them.

I applaud that stat, winning tough games against tough opponents isn't easy and that's a direct result of the OBC. The flip side is true as well, that the OBC lets games slip through that sink his programs season aspirations.

So while its cool to applaud the man, you really have to ask the tough questions of "Why" do his teams shite the bed at South Carolina?

This is an honest question. Thats an impressive stat. He should have won more than one East title with a record like that.

Head scratching.
This post was edited on 5/14/14 at 10:32 pm
Posted by LSUNV
In the woods or on the water
Member since Feb 2011
22422 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:31 pm to
What I am saying is if you look at top ten opponents we have played over the last three years, we ain't scared to play tough games. We even had a couple back out of talks trying to set it up
This post was edited on 5/14/14 at 10:33 pm
Posted by FearlessFreep
Baja Alabama
Member since Nov 2009
17270 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:32 pm to
quote:

The most accurate gauge if you're tracking wins against ranked opponents is to add up those wins against teams that finish the season ranked in the final polls.
This, in abundance.

I've never understood the rationale for the "ranked when we beat them" argument. Generally speaking, the measure of a team is how they fared over the course of the entire season. And that is normally reflected in their final poll ranking (or lack of same).

Which is why LSU fans should feel proud of their victory over eventual #2 AU, stiff dew-aided though it was.

This post was edited on 5/14/14 at 10:34 pm
Posted by bamabenny
Member since Nov 2009
14637 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 10:32 pm to
inb4 all the LSU fans thumping their chest because they've played two more games against ranked people than Bama since '11
Posted by tween the hedges
Member since Feb 2012
20238 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 11:00 pm to
Because with the ranking system beating a team usually removes them from the rankings? By poll logic if the 24 team takes the number 3 team to overtime on the road, they still usually fall out in favor of a team that beat an unranked team by a fg
Posted by Cockopotamus
Member since Jan 2013
15737 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 11:00 pm to
quote:

So while its cool to applaud the man, you really have to ask the tough questions of "Why" do his teams shite the bed at South Carolina?



quote:

Head scratching.



USC has only lost two games it shouldn't have the past 3 years. 8-5 Auburn in 2011 and UT last year. Considering we've only lost 4 other games in the past 3 years, all of them on the road, I don't think its too concerning.


quote:

Missouri: 3-12, .200 (0-8)



Hot damn that is a terrible record to have against ranked teams. How about scratching your head over it?
Posted by LSUNV
In the woods or on the water
Member since Feb 2011
22422 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 11:03 pm to
He roots for mizzoura, he has nothing better to do
Posted by kilo
Member since Oct 2011
27421 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 11:04 pm to
quote:

Cockopotamus


Look, Im not flaming you or your school. The question I asked was legit. Im impressed with that stat. Its legit. If it were the institution that I supported I would ask the same question. It has to come up inside your South Carolina fan circles, no?

quote:

Hot damn that is a terrible record to have against ranked teams. How about scratching your head over it?


We have the same amount of SEC East titles as you do with that record. That should make YOU take pause, not the other way around.

Im not flaming you, sorry if the tough question has you flustered.





Posted by pivey14
In Your Head
Member since Mar 2012
15445 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 11:05 pm to
quote:

14. Mississippi State: 0-15, .000 (0-9)


quote:

Lulz


quote:

10. Ole Miss: 2-15, .118 (0-9)



You should be so proud.
Posted by CNB
Columbia, SC
Member since Sep 2007
95865 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 11:07 pm to
quote:

We have the same amount of SEC East titles as you do with that record.


You keep saying that as if it's some huge accomplishment.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25519 posts
Posted on 5/14/14 at 11:07 pm to
quote:

USC has only lost two games it shouldn't have the past 3 years. 8-5 Auburn in 2011 and UT last year. Considering we've only lost 4 other games in the past 3 years, all of them on the road, I don't think its too concerning.


Was the loss to UGA last season a loss to a good team or to a bad team?

That's the part that the final rankings doesn't take into account.
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