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Aaron Murray - NFL material?
Posted on 2/8/14 at 1:36 pm
Posted on 2/8/14 at 1:36 pm
So, pulling from THIS thread....
Wanted to take a look at Murray vs. Russell Wilson vs. Drew Brees as college sophomores, juniors and seniors (because Brees and Wilson didn't hold a candle to Murray's freshman stats, thus it wouldn't really be fair). The comment was made that Murray did not have the running ability of Wilson (and I beg to differ since he proved more often than not that he could play that role when the situation called for it) and that he was "no Brees". My question: What about Wilson or Brees at the end of their collegiate careers was better than Aaron Murray?
Below are theirs stats (from the aforementioned seasons), all mixed up. See if you can identify who is who (WITHOUT LOOKING IT UP ON THE INTERNETS) and tell me where you see the remarkable difference that makes Brees and/or Wilson better than Murray.
G Cmp Att Pct Yds TD INT RTG
11 225 347 64.8 3075 26 9 158.8
13 361 569 63.4 3983 39 20 137.8
14 249 386 64.5 3893 36 10 174.8
14 225 309 72.8 3175 33 4 191.8
13 308 527 58.4 3563 28 14 127.5
12 337 554 60.8 3909 25 12 130.7
14 238 403 59.1 3149 35 14 146.4
12 224 378 59.3 3027 31 11 147.8
12 309 512 60.4 3668 26 12 132.6
Not at all saying it makes Murray an instant success. Just pointing out that hindsight is 20/20 and not many would have predicted great things from Brees or Wilson just prior to their respective drafts based on the way those same folks see Murray now.
Wanted to take a look at Murray vs. Russell Wilson vs. Drew Brees as college sophomores, juniors and seniors (because Brees and Wilson didn't hold a candle to Murray's freshman stats, thus it wouldn't really be fair). The comment was made that Murray did not have the running ability of Wilson (and I beg to differ since he proved more often than not that he could play that role when the situation called for it) and that he was "no Brees". My question: What about Wilson or Brees at the end of their collegiate careers was better than Aaron Murray?
Below are theirs stats (from the aforementioned seasons), all mixed up. See if you can identify who is who (WITHOUT LOOKING IT UP ON THE INTERNETS) and tell me where you see the remarkable difference that makes Brees and/or Wilson better than Murray.
G Cmp Att Pct Yds TD INT RTG
11 225 347 64.8 3075 26 9 158.8
13 361 569 63.4 3983 39 20 137.8
14 249 386 64.5 3893 36 10 174.8
14 225 309 72.8 3175 33 4 191.8
13 308 527 58.4 3563 28 14 127.5
12 337 554 60.8 3909 25 12 130.7
14 238 403 59.1 3149 35 14 146.4
12 224 378 59.3 3027 31 11 147.8
12 309 512 60.4 3668 26 12 132.6
Not at all saying it makes Murray an instant success. Just pointing out that hindsight is 20/20 and not many would have predicted great things from Brees or Wilson just prior to their respective drafts based on the way those same folks see Murray now.
2
Posted on 2/8/14 at 2:09 pm to S1C EM
In Brees' defense, he played at Purdue without any other NFL talent on that offense. They threw about 50-55 times a game. Murray was great at reading a defense and finding his matchups, extremely accurate and tough as nails. UGA was rarely out of a game (see his 4Q numbers against Auburn). I can still remember people on here calling for Mason to start over him before last season. Murray will be missed, big time.
Posted on 2/8/14 at 2:12 pm to VADawg
quote:
In Brees' defense, he played at Purdue without any other NFL talent on that offense.
Fair assessment. I would counter, though, that Brees rarely ever faced defenses as good as those Murray competed against for the same reason. And, while Murray had some good receivers, none (aside from AJ his freshman year) were all-world talents.
quote:
Murray will be missed, big time.
Yup.
Posted on 2/8/14 at 2:59 pm to S1C EM
Unfortunately for Murray, none of that has any impact on whether or not he'll be successful. I believe at the very least, he'll have a long career as a back-up, earn millions of dollars, and retire from football in more than a decade with a nest-egg built up that most 30 something's can only dream of.
College stats, however, are so confusingly erratic that they are are a poor predictor of NFL success.
The link below shows the top QB ratings for college careers all time. The top 10 is:
1. Sam Bradford*
2. Tim Tebow*
3. Kellen Moore*
4. Ryan Dinwiddie*
5. Colt Brennan*
6. Marcus Mariota*
7. Johnny Manziel*
8. Danny Wuerffel
9. Andrew Luck*
10. Ty Detmer
That's a whole lot of NFL nobodies, a couple career back-ups, a couple of folks still to be determined, and Andrew Luck. Aaron Murray is #18 on the list. Successful starting NFL QBs on the list include:
29. Donovan McNabb
36. Daunte Culpepper
41. Ben Roethlisberger
52. Steve Young
71. Peyton Manning
90. Phillip Rivers
127. Marc Bulger
143. Bernie Kosar
147. John Elway
172. Eli Manning
177. Randall Cunningham
247. Matt Stafford
Joe Hamilton from GT? Number 62. Drew Brees? Not in the top 250. Tom Brady? Not in the top 250. Aaron Rodgers? Not in the top 250.
It's just impossible to pull up stats from college and predict anything from them.
College QB Rating
College stats, however, are so confusingly erratic that they are are a poor predictor of NFL success.
The link below shows the top QB ratings for college careers all time. The top 10 is:
1. Sam Bradford*
2. Tim Tebow*
3. Kellen Moore*
4. Ryan Dinwiddie*
5. Colt Brennan*
6. Marcus Mariota*
7. Johnny Manziel*
8. Danny Wuerffel
9. Andrew Luck*
10. Ty Detmer
That's a whole lot of NFL nobodies, a couple career back-ups, a couple of folks still to be determined, and Andrew Luck. Aaron Murray is #18 on the list. Successful starting NFL QBs on the list include:
29. Donovan McNabb
36. Daunte Culpepper
41. Ben Roethlisberger
52. Steve Young
71. Peyton Manning
90. Phillip Rivers
127. Marc Bulger
143. Bernie Kosar
147. John Elway
172. Eli Manning
177. Randall Cunningham
247. Matt Stafford
Joe Hamilton from GT? Number 62. Drew Brees? Not in the top 250. Tom Brady? Not in the top 250. Aaron Rodgers? Not in the top 250.
It's just impossible to pull up stats from college and predict anything from them.
College QB Rating
Posted on 2/8/14 at 3:11 pm to reservoir_dawg
quote:
It's just impossible to pull up stats from college and predict anything from them.
Totally agree. I'm simply looking at two guys with physical traits similar to Murray and showing where they were when they came in and, as we all know, how successful they are now. It's just to point out that his size is not necessarily the determining factor here.
Posted on 2/8/14 at 4:31 pm to S1C EM
Seattle just won a Super Bowl with a 6' quarterback. A guy who got the job because his legs help him extend plays.
Hopefully Murray can show off his speed at the comb...
frick.
Hopefully Murray can show off his speed at the comb...
frick.
This post was edited on 2/8/14 at 4:32 pm
Posted on 2/8/14 at 6:25 pm to greygatch
Wilson has much better running ability than Murray. Murrayand Wilson are about equal in passing ability. Most any QB in the NFL that runs a lot will end up gimpy in about 3 years. Look at RG3 this year. Pitiful runner and barely adequate passer. He'll be using a walker in 10 years.
Posted on 2/8/14 at 7:57 pm to reservoir_dawg
quote:
Successful starting NFL QBs on the list include:
Other than Drew Brees, there seems to be a common denominator that distinguishes members of the successful list: pretty big tall guys with strong passing arms. I love Aaron but I'm not sure he has enough athletic ability to overcome his height disadvantage and arm strength. Stafford didn't have Murray's college stats be he can absolutely throw a rope 50 yards down field when required.
Posted on 2/8/14 at 8:29 pm to davesdawgs
Murray reminds me of T Romo. I know he isn't as tall as Romo, but he has some movement in teh pocket to make plays, has above avg arm strength, and makes dumb plays that really can cost the team. Granted Murray didnt have many of those this past year. I can see him cutting down on some of those key turnovers, but it really depends on what team and offense he has really.
And comparing Murrays arm to Staffords is not smart, as he is prob the strongest arm in teh NFL, if not, then def in the top3. Murray's arm isn't weak, I really noticed this when Mason came in vs Kentucky.
And comparing Murrays arm to Staffords is not smart, as he is prob the strongest arm in teh NFL, if not, then def in the top3. Murray's arm isn't weak, I really noticed this when Mason came in vs Kentucky.
This post was edited on 2/8/14 at 8:32 pm
Posted on 2/9/14 at 7:02 am to dawgsjw
It's not weak, but it's definitely not in the same category as Brees. I'd say it's not even as strong as Wilson's.
Posted on 2/9/14 at 8:20 am to dawgsjw
quote:
Murray's arm isn't weak, I really noticed this when Mason came in vs Kentucky.
Agree. Without data it's hard to gauge but Murray appears to have better than average arm strength and yes, I noticed the drop-off with Mason as well. The thing about having a powerful arm, especially in the NFL where defenses are super fast, is not just the ability to throw the longest passes down-field stretching the field but also more velocity control when you need it on shorter range passes. That control/accuracy and the ability diagnose the field is what separates the Drew Brees' of the world from the rest.
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