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A Look at the Correlation Between Recruiting and On-Field Success (2002-2012)
Posted on 11/28/13 at 9:07 am
Posted on 11/28/13 at 9:07 am
I've always found the interrelationship between signing classes and their translation to success on the field fascinating - particularly when surges in the recruiting game correspond to higher win totals in the following years.
I've compiled screenshots of how Rivals.com ranked signing classes in the SEC since the site's inception in 2002 along with the SEC standings from those years. Keep in mind that a class doesn't often make an immediate impact on the field; rather, it takes a season or two for it all to come together (maybe the addition of subsequent star-studded casts were the missing piece to the puzzle).
Also, A&M and Mizzou are included in each year's signing class ranking (I guess the "SEC conference" filter was put in after the expansion). I will go ahead and list their Big 12 records from the years preceding their entry into the SEC.
2002
Mizzou 5-7 (2-6 Big 12)
Texas A&M 6-6 (3-5 Big 12)
2003
Mizzou 8-5 (4-4 Big 12)
Texas A&M 4-8 (2-6 Big 12)
2004
Mizzou 5-6 (3-5 Big 12)
Texas A&M 7-5 (5-3 Big 12)
2005
Mizzou 7-5 (4-4 Big 12)
Texas A&M 5-6 (3-5 Big 12)
2006
Mizzou 8-5 (4-4 Big 12)
Texas A&M 9-4 (5-3 Big 12)
2007
Mizzou 12-2 (7-1 Big 12)
Texas A&M 7-6 (4-4 Big 12)
2008
Mizzou 10-4 (5-3 Big 12)
Texas A&M 4-8 (2-6 Big 12)
2009
Mizzou 8-5 (4-4 Big 12)
Texas A&M 6-7 (3-5 Big 12)
2010
Mizzou 10-3 (6-2 Big 12)
Texas A&M 9-4 (6-2 Big 12)
2011
Mizzou 8-5 (5-4 Big 12)
Texas A&M 7-6 (4-5 Big 12)
2012
I've compiled screenshots of how Rivals.com ranked signing classes in the SEC since the site's inception in 2002 along with the SEC standings from those years. Keep in mind that a class doesn't often make an immediate impact on the field; rather, it takes a season or two for it all to come together (maybe the addition of subsequent star-studded casts were the missing piece to the puzzle).
Also, A&M and Mizzou are included in each year's signing class ranking (I guess the "SEC conference" filter was put in after the expansion). I will go ahead and list their Big 12 records from the years preceding their entry into the SEC.
2002
Mizzou 5-7 (2-6 Big 12)
Texas A&M 6-6 (3-5 Big 12)
2003
Mizzou 8-5 (4-4 Big 12)
Texas A&M 4-8 (2-6 Big 12)
2004
Mizzou 5-6 (3-5 Big 12)
Texas A&M 7-5 (5-3 Big 12)
2005
Mizzou 7-5 (4-4 Big 12)
Texas A&M 5-6 (3-5 Big 12)
2006
Mizzou 8-5 (4-4 Big 12)
Texas A&M 9-4 (5-3 Big 12)
2007
Mizzou 12-2 (7-1 Big 12)
Texas A&M 7-6 (4-4 Big 12)
2008
Mizzou 10-4 (5-3 Big 12)
Texas A&M 4-8 (2-6 Big 12)
2009
Mizzou 8-5 (4-4 Big 12)
Texas A&M 6-7 (3-5 Big 12)
2010
Mizzou 10-3 (6-2 Big 12)
Texas A&M 9-4 (6-2 Big 12)
2011
Mizzou 8-5 (5-4 Big 12)
Texas A&M 7-6 (4-5 Big 12)
2012
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Posted on 11/28/13 at 9:13 am to brewhan davey
So much talent on UGA in the last 10 years. 
Posted on 11/28/13 at 9:20 am to brewhan davey
Interesting work. Looking at Bama's was surprising to me. I guess when I think oversigning that I assumed they were taking 30 a year.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 9:25 am to brewhan davey
Very interesting stuff. I'm much too lazy to do this, but it would be interesting to see the matchup of how accurate these classes were by showing the class ranking and then the conference ranking three years later. I chose three years because everyone on the team would be rsSoph or Juniors. For example, LSU's 2008 class, while not the best in the SEC, lead LSU to the SEC title in 2011. Whereas Florida's 2008 class, which was ranked higher than LSU's, underperformed in 2011.
Solid work
Solid work
Posted on 11/28/13 at 9:31 am to chattabama
Posted on 11/28/13 at 9:51 am to Porter Osborne Jr
Bama doesn't oversign any more than the other top SEC schools do.
To the OP, good work.
To the OP, good work.
This post was edited on 11/28/13 at 9:52 am
Posted on 11/28/13 at 11:30 am to brewhan davey
I find it funny that our on the field shittyness didn't screw our recruiting up.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 11:45 am to AUCE05
quote:
I find it funny that our on the field shittyness didn't screw our recruiting up.
Unless hit with serious scholarship sanctions, programs like Auburn, Alabama, Florida, LSU, and Georgia will always recruit well. Those programs (albeit, that is not an exhaustive list) have the sustainability that won't allow for complete plummeting in the recruiting game. It's the same reason that Texas, USC, and other programs like that will always recruit well, regardless of on-field performance).
Posted on 11/28/13 at 1:13 pm to brewhan davey
LSU only took 13 commits in '05??
That's interesting
That's interesting
Posted on 11/28/13 at 1:33 pm to bamabenny
Actuallt Bama oversigned more than anyone from 09-12. And as far as other top teams I guess you think Vandy, UK, and Ole Miss are the new Big 3.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 1:43 pm to bigeztiger
quote:
LSU only took 13 commits in '05??
That's interesting
Yeah.. remember Miles had just been hired a month before signing day. There had been rumblings that Saban was gone after the season for a while too, so LSU wasn't exactly the stable environment that recruits were looking for. It amazes me some of the recruiting classes that some new coaches are able to put together during transition periods like this.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 4:19 pm to chattabama
quote:
LSU's 2008 class, while not the best in the SEC, lead LSU to the SEC title in 2011
Class of 09 led us to that title.
Posted on 11/28/13 at 4:35 pm to Rice N Gravyy
247 classes for A&M:
2013 - 9
2014 - 2 (currently)
2015 - 3 (currently)
2013 - 9
2014 - 2 (currently)
2015 - 3 (currently)
Posted on 11/28/13 at 10:53 pm to WDE85
quote:
So much talent on UGA in the last 10 years.
You can plan a picnic but you can't predict the weather.
OP- great topic. You should be given a medal for compiling this. It should be stickied. It will be relevant for a long time.
Posted on 11/29/13 at 8:15 am to deeprig9
I'll update once this season is in the books as well.
Posted on 11/30/13 at 1:03 pm to brewhan davey
Our highest ranking was 7th in the conference and our average was probably 9th...
We finished in the top 4 of the west more years than not with a 1st, 2nd and a couple 3rd
Sounds about right. If Bert can win a little I think the staff could put us closer to the 6th spot than the 12th
We finished in the top 4 of the west more years than not with a 1st, 2nd and a couple 3rd
Sounds about right. If Bert can win a little I think the staff could put us closer to the 6th spot than the 12th
Posted on 2/4/14 at 1:14 pm to brewhan davey
This thread is appropriate with NSD looming tomorrow.
Posted on 2/4/14 at 1:16 pm to scrooster
A&M's class will either finish 3rd or 4th depending on who LSU signs in 2014.
A&M's 2015 class is #1 right now and has the potential to run away with the ranking.
A&M's 2015 class is #1 right now and has the potential to run away with the ranking.
Posted on 2/4/14 at 1:53 pm to bamabenny
quote:Yeah, it a myth, started by our rivals and carried to extreme with the Yankee Ohio State fan who made the oversigning.com website.
Bama doesn't oversign any more than the other top SEC schools do.
To the OP, good work.
When the numbers started showing that Alabama wasn't the worse at oversigning, he quit the site.
Posted on 2/4/14 at 3:14 pm to bamabenny
quote:
Bama doesn't oversign any more than the other top SEC schools do.
If you look at the years 2006-2012 - there is a major difference in some schools.
If I'm counting right on the major schools:
AU - 8 more
LSU - 6 fewer
SC - 5 fewer
FL - 19 fewer
GA - 23 fewer
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