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re: SEC "Not as Good as You Think"

Posted on 8/15/12 at 8:28 am to
Posted by TunaSteve
Nashville, TN
Member since May 2012
132 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 8:28 am to
So LSU, Florida, and Bama have won championships because they were ranked so high preseason?

How does he explain 2010 Auburn? They weren't even top 20 and they won. I'm sure there's some convenient excuse for that.
Posted by crispyUGA
Upstate SC
Member since Feb 2011
15918 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 8:33 am to
quote:

In 2012, for instance, the SEC was able to even its BCS bowl record against the Big Ten at 19-19 when the Florida Gators beat Ohio State in the none-too-partisan Gator Bowl. The game was played in Jacksonville. No bowl games are played in Ohio.


Who the frick wants to go play a bowl game in fricking Ohio in January? Nobody. Ohio sucks 365 days of the year, but especially in the winter.
Posted by glaucon
New Orleans, LA
Member since Aug 2008
5292 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 8:40 am to
quote:


I think the largest thing is that ESPN has a huge contract with the SEC, and therefore they talk about them more, and recruits see them more. They get better recruits, and then win more...leading to better recruits


Better and greater media coverage helps but not nearly as much as you might think. The most important factor to determining where a recruit will play is going to be distance. The problem that the rest of the country has is that the SEC is geographically positioned to get the best recruits in the country. Politics, demographics, and economics better explain the rise of the SEC than its media contracts.
Posted by Govt Tide
Member since Nov 2009
9109 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 8:58 am to
quote:

Better and greater media coverage helps but not nearly as much as you might think. The most important factor to determining where a recruit will play is going to be distance. The problem that the rest of the country has is that the SEC is geographically positioned to get the best recruits in the country. Politics, demographics, and economics better explain the rise of the SEC than its media contracts.


You could tell them this till you're blue in the face but they're convinced that "oversigning" and non existant academic standards are the only reasons the SEC dominates. They know the best athletes from the Southeast prefer to go to SEC schools and that's why you see the whiny blogs about oversigning so rampant among Big Ten fans. They literally HAVE to limit and restrict scholarships as much as possible to FORCE some of these elite athletes to play in their conference.

Despite commenters constantly shooting holes in the arguments made by oversigning.com the guy running the site kept rambling on about it. He simply disabled the comments section when it was obvious his arguments were being made to look stupid.
This post was edited on 8/15/12 at 9:00 am
Posted by Crimson Legend
Mount St Gumpus
Member since Nov 2004
15478 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 9:05 am to
Exactly. I've lived in Big Ten country for the last 10 years, and there is absolutely no way to shake their belief that they do it "the right way" and that the SEC is a bunch of cheating football factories with low academic standards.

Even my close friend who is a doctor from Ohio State admitted that he has no proof, and he somehow thinks that tOSU just got hammered for minor violations while the SEC is certainly paying everyone and cheating like crazy.
Posted by LSUNV
In the woods or on the water
Member since Feb 2011
22422 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 9:06 am to
I say let them soak in their tears. This is why the SEC is the best damn conference in America, it's ok when we pick on our own, but when somebody else does it, we all want to kick their arse
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
79732 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 10:20 am to
Here's some analysis on the SEC vs. other teams in the National Championship game (I deliberately removed last year's title game) from 2006-2010:

2006 Florida scoring average - 29.71 ppg
2006 Ohio State scoring average - 34.62 ppg

Florida won 41-14

2007 LSU scoring average - 38.64 ppg
2007 Ohio State scoring average - 31.38 ppg

LSU won 38-24

2008 Florida scoring average - 43.64 ppg
2008 Oklahoma scoring average - 51.14 ppg

Florida won 24-14

2009 Alabama scoring average - 32.07 ppg
2009 t.u. scoring average - 39.29 ppg

Alabama won 37-21

2010 Auburn scoring average - 41.21 ppg
2010 Oregon scoring average - 47.00 ppg

Auburn won 22-19

From 2006-2010, the SEC Champion held its national championship opponent to an average of 21.4 points below its scoring average and scored an average of 4 points LESS than its scoring average that season...a net margin of 17 points.

Conversely, if you take defensive statistics into account:

2010 Auburn allowed 24.07 ppg (allowed 5 less against Oregon)
2010 Oregon allowed 18.69 ppg (allowed 4 more against Auburn)

2009 Alabama allowed 11.71 ppg (allowed 10 more against t.u.)
2009 t.u. allowed 16.71 ppg (allowed 22 more against Alabama)

2008 Florida allowed 12.93 ppg (allowed 1 more against Oklahoma)
2008 Oklahoma allowed 24.50 ppg (right at its average)

2007 LSU allowed 19.9 ppg (allowed 4 more against Ohio State)
2007 Ohio State allowed 12.8 ppg (allowed 25 more against LSU)

2006 Florida allowed 13.5 ppg (right at its average)
2006 Ohio State allowed 12.8 ppg (allowed 38 more against Florida)

Defensively, the SEC's opponents allowed an average of 2 more points than they regularly allowed while its opponents allowed almost 18 points more against SEC schools than they typically allowed.

Using offensive and defensive statistics of LSU and Oklahoma State from 2011...

LSU scored 35.71 ppg. Using the first set, they would have scored 32

LSU allowed 11.29 ppg. Using the second set, they would have allowed 13.

Oklahoma State scored 48.69 ppg. Using the first set, they would have scored 31.

Oklahoma State allowed 26.77 ppg. Using the second set, they would have allowed 45.

So, the score of the LSU/Oklahoma State game would have been one of the following:

32-31 LSU (using just offense)
45-13 LSU (using just defense)
32-13 LSU (using LSU stats)
45-31 LSU (using Oklahoma State stats)

Using a composite average, you get:

LSU 39
Oklahoma State 22
This post was edited on 8/15/12 at 10:21 am
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17500 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 10:28 am to
Big picture, this arse hat just has an ax to grind and is completly full of shite other than Alabama's mulligan which stinks of bullshite.

He uses stats going way back to "prove" the SEC is not as good as advertised and the system is rigged, etc.

Well, the current BCS relies on 2/3 human polls 1/3 computer and has since 2004. From 1998-2003 it relied to a greater extent on formulas like schedule rank and loss record. The point is, the current formula is more favored toward humans and would in theory be more able to be munipulated.

Well, 2001, 2 loss Florida finsihed 5 in the BCS and Polls. 2-Loss UT was 8 in polls, 6 in BCS, meaning humans judged them harsher. 2-Loss CU was 3 in both.

2002, there were only 2 undefeated teams. But, 1-loss UGA was No. 4 in polls while 1-loss Iowa was 3. Again, computers valued SEC team more than humans.

2003, LSU was No. 2 in BCS and by humans. USC was 1 in the polls but 3 in human polls. Again, humans prefered non-SEC team.

2004, undefeated Auburn was 3rd behind the two other non SEC teams.

2005 no SEC teams in the top 6 of BCS.

2006, UF was No. 2 in both BCS and human polls ahead of 1-loss Michigan and 1-loss Louisville. So, SEC bias came from not wanted a rematch I guess.

2007, LSU was in ahead of 5 other 2-loss teams. But, LSU as conf champ of the SEC clearly had the best argument of the 5. Bias? Questionable at best. Oklahoma probably had the best case but did not have as many good wins and had bad losses. OU was 3 in human polls, 4 in the BCS, so again, the computers throught much less of the Sooners.

2008, the two 1 loss champs of the two toughest conferences split the human votes for No. 1 and OU was favored by computers. USC, as a conf champ was voted 4 and 5 by voters and 5 by BCS. Not sure what human bias pro the SEC existed here.

2009, you had again two undefeated teams from the two strongest conferences. Cinci, TCU, and Boise were also undefeated. Again, where is the bias?

2010, again the two highest ranked undefeated conf champs played in the championship game. Not sure the issue.

2011, UA was No. 2 in both polls and the BCS but this is really the only incedent where it could even be argued an SEC team was favored by humans and any bias existed.

In conclusion. You have 1 example that where you could even argue and SEC team was given favorable treatment.








This post was edited on 8/15/12 at 10:32 am
Posted by Ghostfacedistiller
BR
Member since Jun 2008
17500 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 10:32 am to
Excellent post.
Posted by BigEdLSU
All around the south
Member since Sep 2010
20268 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 10:33 am to
How the frick is the b1g 19-19 in bcs games vs sec when the bcs has been here 14 years.

Max of two teams per conference per year.

Assume b1g and sec got two teams each year, and that we always played each other, which is absurd. That's a total of 28 games.

19+19 =/= 28
Posted by bigeztiger
Columbus Ohio
Member since Jul 2011
5092 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 10:34 am to
6 in a row is all that needs to be said
Posted by Crimson Legend
Mount St Gumpus
Member since Nov 2004
15478 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 10:55 am to
And in the case of last year, you could only argue that SEC bias was the reason IF both teams did not deserve to be there. Since nobody questioned the presence of LSU, it makes no sense to retroactively make the claim that the SEC was only there because of bias. LSU deserved to be there. That's indisputable. So you might make that case that Bama shouldn't have gone in favor of OSU, but you can't then claim that NEITHER team deserved to be there.
Posted by Hamstonian
Birmingham
Member since Oct 2010
370 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 10:56 am to
quote:

but the reason I think that the SEC has done so well in that period is by playing one less conference game than the PAC, and substituting it with a CUSA/SunBelt or FCS opponent. It basically guarantees everyone in the conference one less loss, unless you really screw it up (UAB, ULM and almost Troy.)

The SEC gamed the system well. When playoffs are implemented, the SEC will be forced to add that 9th conference game or risk losing out on playoffs due to SoS.


This is simply not true. Number one is that the SEC gamed the system. The SEC has played 8 conference games and had a championship game since 92. Except for Alabama last year, every SEC team that made it to the BCS championship game had to play nine conference games. The last game is always against a quality opponent and is often a rematch against a quality opponent. There is no argument that can be made that the SEC "gamed" the system.
Posted by RollTide1987
Augusta, GA
Member since Nov 2009
64871 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 11:01 am to
quote:

And in the case of last year, you could only argue that SEC bias was the reason IF both teams did not deserve to be there. Since nobody questioned the presence of LSU, it makes no sense to retroactively make the claim that the SEC was only there because of bias. LSU deserved to be there. That's indisputable. So you might make that case that Bama shouldn't have gone in favor of OSU, but you can't then claim that NEITHER team deserved to be there.


This. While my Alabama bias says that the result of the BCS national title invalidates the argument of Alabama not deserving to be in the game, there is no denying that LSU deserved to be there. They were the only undefeated team in college football.

Posted by BrerTiger
Valley of the Long Grey Cloud
Member since Sep 2011
21506 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 11:15 am to
quote:

As though empirical evidence is akin to fossil records and climate change data, it's as if no one in the evangelical South is capable of copping to the evidence at hand.




shite belongs on the Poli Board.

quote:

The most bald-faced example of poll rigging occurred in 2011 when the Pac-12's then number-three-ranked Oregon Ducks lost a September game in Dallas to then number-four-ranked LSU by a score of 40-27. Following the defeat, the Ducks dropped 10 spaces in the polls, to number 13.

With the demotion, Oregon's championship hopes were essentially obliterated from the first week of the season.


Ducks might have a good argument for a rematch last year if they hadn't lost to U$C.

Oregon had their chance to prove they were superior to the SEC twice. They failed twice. It really is as simple as that. Beating an unranked Tennessee (that finished that season with 6 wins) doesn't prove anything.
Posted by BrerTiger
Valley of the Long Grey Cloud
Member since Sep 2011
21506 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 11:20 am to
quote:

6 in a row is all that needs to be said


I like how the article tries to dismiss that as a simpleton argument.

I wish it were the 1980s again so he could write an article telling us how the NFC isn't dominating merely because they keep winning every Super Bowl.

The SEC reign of terror won't last forever. We're gonna lose a BCS championship game eventually (last year was SEC vs. SEC so that doesn't really count as a SEC team still won) and eventually we won't even make the game at all. This might even be that year. Wouldn't shock me.

But it's just laughable to suggest the SEC hasn't been dominating in the BCS era.
Posted by BrerTiger
Valley of the Long Grey Cloud
Member since Sep 2011
21506 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 11:22 am to
quote:

So, the score of the LSU/Oklahoma State game would have been one of the following:

32-31 LSU (using just offense)
45-13 LSU (using just defense)
32-13 LSU (using LSU stats)
45-31 LSU (using Oklahoma State stats)

Using a composite average, you get:

LSU 39
Oklahoma State 22


Precisely why we wanted to play them and not Bama.

But the way JJ was playing that night, he probably would have choked that game away too.

Spilled milk. Moving on...
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
79732 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 11:41 am to
quote:

But the way JJ was playing that night, he probably would have choked that game away too.


Awfully hard to hand the ball off for 10 ypc every play.
Posted by reb13
Member since May 2010
10905 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 11:43 am to
quote:

Before the current run, it was the Pac 10/Big 10 getting all of the love. Then Florida demolished Ohio St.


This. I remember before the UF/OSU game having to listen to herbstreit act like Florida had NO chance.
Posted by loweralabamatrojan
Lower Alabama
Member since Oct 2006
13134 posts
Posted on 8/15/12 at 11:51 am to
quote:

So, you're saying that SEC teams really weren't as good as their records and got into BCS bowls when they didn't deserve to, but wouldn't that make it likely that they'd fare poorly once they got into those games they didn't deserve? Yet, the SEC has the best record in BCS bowls of any AQ conference. This doesn't seem contradictory to you?
Nope. It's less wear and tear on your team to play a late season FCS team or Sun Belt team than it is to play another conference game. Easy win, fewer injuries, healthier team, more prepared for the post-season.

Still, there's no disputing the SEC is the best conference right now. I agree though, with the premise that the perception (especially here in the South) exceeds the reality. To what degree that is true is subjective.
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