Scenarios (all using final BCS standings):
1. top 4 ranked teams
2. top 4 ranked conference champions
3. top 3 ranked conference champions + 1 at large (highest ranked non-conference champion)

2002
All 3 scenarios: Miami, Ohio State, UGA, USC
2003
All 3 scenarios: Oklahoma, LSU, USC, Michigan
2004
1.USC,Oklahoma,Auburn,Texas
2.USC,Oklahoma,Auburn,Utah
3.USC,Oklahoma,Auburn,Texas
2005
1.USC,Texas,Penn State,Ohio State
2.USC,Texas,Penn State,Notre Dame
3.USC,Texas,Penn State,Ohio State
2006
1.Ohio State,Florida,Michigan,LSU
2.Ohio State,Florida,USC,Louisville
3.Ohio State,Florida,USC,Michigan
2007
All 3 scenarios: Ohio State,LSU,VT,Oklahoma
2008
1.Oklahoma,Florida,Texas,Alabama
2.Oklahoma,Florida,USC,Utah
3.Oklahoma,Florida,USC,Texas
2009
All 3 scenarios: Alabama,Texas,Cincinnati,TCU
2010
1.Auburn,Oregon,TCU,Stanford
2.Auburn,Oregon,TCU,Wisconsin
3.Auburn,Oregon,TCU,Stanford
2011
1.LSU,Alabama,Okie St,Stanford
2.LSU,Okie St,Oregon,Boise St
3.LSU,Okie St,Oregon,Alabama

Based on the results, the worst scenario is top 4 conference champions. Several teams which got beat by teams that were left out would've made it into the final 4.
3 conference champions plus at large is close to accurate, this matched best 4 teams except for 06, 08, and 11. However in 2 of those 3 seasons an SEC team would've been left out that would've made it under the top 4 scenario. But I think last year 3+1 would've been more legit than top 4 because Oregon should've gone in over Stanford IMO. That would've moved Alabama from the 2 seed to the 4 seed.

Also in 04, 08, and 11 under top 4 conferences the 4th seed is non-aq. If it was aq only it would be VT, Penn St, and Wisconsin respectively.

Top 4 is most voter controlled which cuts both ways. That's my only reservation about it. But by the final BCS standings over the last 10 years it's hard to argue against just taking the top 4 teams.

This post was edited on 6/6/12 at 9:14 pm