Started By
Message
Numerical Analysis of the SEC for this week...
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:12 pm
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:12 pm
I took all the SEC games played to date and used a least squares fit to produce a strength rating for each team (using a standard 4 point home field advantage). As the scale floats, I put the weakest SEC team at zero (sorry Ole Miss).
This Week's Games
LSU by 16.48 over Arkansas
Bama by 16.90 over Auburn
MSU by 21.21 over Ole Miss
UT by 5.68 over UK
Team Ratings
LSU 43.63
Bama 37.82
Arkansas 31.15
South Carolina 27.56
Florida 27.23
Georgia 25.65
Vanderbilt 18.08
Mississippi State 17.21
Auburn 16.92
Tennessee 11.45
Kentucky 1.77
Ole Miss 0.00
This Week's Games
LSU by 16.48 over Arkansas
Bama by 16.90 over Auburn
MSU by 21.21 over Ole Miss
UT by 5.68 over UK
Team Ratings
LSU 43.63
Bama 37.82
Arkansas 31.15
South Carolina 27.56
Florida 27.23
Georgia 25.65
Vanderbilt 18.08
Mississippi State 17.21
Auburn 16.92
Tennessee 11.45
Kentucky 1.77
Ole Miss 0.00
6
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:13 pm to DocBugbear
quote:
Mississippi State 17.21
Auburn 16.92
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:14 pm to DocBugbear
Crunch the numbers again, I think you're off.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:14 pm to DocBugbear
nb4ugetcrucified
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:15 pm to dkreller
this doesn't get past one page of replies due to all the stupid rednecks on this board
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:17 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
Crunch the numbers again, I think you're off.
Sorry, but the numbers are right. ...Whether this has any bearing on this weekends games is debatable.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:17 pm to beaver
in roughly 24 hours the hogs will be gone 
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:20 pm to beaver
quote:
this doesn't get past one page of replies due to all the stupid rednecks on this board
Yeah... but there will still be some that like to see such things.
I'm just waiting for people to tell me I need to move some teams around as if I just picked numbers out for everyone.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:21 pm to DocBugbear
quote:
Sorry, but the numbers are right. ...Whether this has any bearing on this weekends games is debatable.
Crunch 'em damn it!
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:23 pm to Jon Ham
The spread sheet does not lie... Plus I even included error checking.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:25 pm to DocBugbear
I would say nobody covers.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:48 pm to DocBugbear
quote:
The spread sheet does not lie... Plus I even included error checking.
Makes no sense unless its in pie chart form........
Posted on 11/24/11 at 5:58 pm to OSqueal
I'll make it simple... When the uncertainties are included, the odds that LSU beats Arkansas are roughly 84%.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 6:06 pm to DocBugbear
quote:
Florida 27.23
Georgia 25.65
interesting result in light of the head to head and overall records... of course Florida did draw Bama and LSU so I'm not going to say it is wrong
Posted on 11/24/11 at 6:10 pm to molsusports
Yeah, I though UF was surprisingly high. I'm guessing they got pulled up by destroying Kentucky on the road.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 6:12 pm to molsusports
I was about to say something, but then I remembered the schedule...
Posted on 11/24/11 at 6:14 pm to dkreller
quote:
in roughly 24 hours the hogs will be gone
Heading towards ATL.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 6:56 pm to DocBugbear
quote:
I took all the SEC games played to date and used a least squares fit to produce a strength rating for each team (using a standard 4 point home field advantage).
The transitive property is always an accurate indicator of future SEC football team performance. Since you're an LSU fan, I'm sure you used a coefficient for the distance between each team's campus and the SEC HQ.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 7:23 pm to arlo
quote:
The transitive property is always an accurate indicator of future SEC football team performance. Since you're an LSU fan, I'm sure you used a coefficient for the distance between each team's campus and the SEC HQ.
There's a difference between using one game and using all the games. When people apply the "transitive" property they usually use an outlier. However if you look at the performance of a team over all its games you do get something of use. And while it doesn't give you the score of future games, it does give you statistical probabilities. Perhaps you should find one of your Alabama brethren that can explain what a least squares fit is.
Posted on 11/24/11 at 7:35 pm to DocBugbear
Good work DOC
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News