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BCS hypothetical
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:08 am
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:08 am
Just curious if anyone thinks this scenario could actually be possible
In the SEC:
LSU beats Ole Miss handlily, and loses to Arky by a touchdown. Bama wins out and beats Auburn handily. Bama and Arky both jump LSU in the BCS rankings and Bama goes to the SECCG where they kill UGA.
In the rest of country:
Oklahoma beats OSU while Oregon wins out and wins the Pac-12 CG.
Do we see Bama and Oregon playing for the MNC due to each having an extra game on that final Saturday while LSU stays home?
In the SEC:
LSU beats Ole Miss handlily, and loses to Arky by a touchdown. Bama wins out and beats Auburn handily. Bama and Arky both jump LSU in the BCS rankings and Bama goes to the SECCG where they kill UGA.
In the rest of country:
Oklahoma beats OSU while Oregon wins out and wins the Pac-12 CG.
Do we see Bama and Oregon playing for the MNC due to each having an extra game on that final Saturday while LSU stays home?
6
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:09 am to PJinAtl
If the moon was made of cheese......
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:09 am to PJinAtl
quote:
Just curious if anyone thinks this scenario could actually be possible
In the SEC:
LSU beats Ole Miss handlily
I could see this as being a possibility. Any given Saturday, I guess.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:11 am to PJinAtl
LSU & BAMA would both have 1 loss records, LSU would have the tie breaker since they won the head to head vs BAMA; LSU still goes to the SECCG.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:12 am to pankReb
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:12 am to coonarse
quote:
LSU & BAMA would both have 1 loss records, LSU would have the tie breaker since they won the head to head vs BAMA; LSU still goes to the SECCG
No.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:14 am to coonarse
quote:If LSU loses to Arkansas all three teams (Bama, LSU and Arky) have 1 loss to each other. If Bama and Arkansas are the top two SEC teams in the BCS standings (and within 5 spots of each other) you move to head to head record between those two, which would send Bama to Atl.
LSU & BAMA would both have 1 loss records, LSU would have the tie breaker since they won the head to head vs BAMA; LSU still goes to the SECCG.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:14 am to PJinAtl
quote:
In the rest of country:
Oklahoma beats OSU while Oregon wins out and wins the Pac-12 CG.
Do we see Bama and Oregon playing for the MNC due to each having an extra game on that final Saturday while LSU stays home?
Obviously Alabama would be one half, and I'd expect Oklahoma as the other team. I actually think, and have since pre-LSU/Alabama game, Oklahoma will be the SEC's opponent if they win out. LSU would have a hard time getting in for a rematch for the same reasons Alabama and Oregon are up against now. I'd think Oklahoma would get in. I do anyway, but people in my mind don't want a rematch, and you couldn't really put Oregon in ahead of LSU.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:15 am to PJinAtl
i cant wait until LSU runs arkansas into the ground
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:17 am to bigpapamac
Arky beats LSU, chances are Bama goes to the SECCG and if they win, BCSNCG.
Arky over LSU likely drops LSU behind bama in both human polls.
Arky over LSU likely drops LSU behind bama in both human polls.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:18 am to LawC
quote:
i cant wait until Arkansas runs LSU into the ground
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:22 am to coonarse
quote:
LSU would have the tie breaker since they won the head to head vs BAMA; LSU still goes to the SECCG
the tie breaker would require LSU to be #2 of the SEC schools in the BCS , not #3, behind both Ark and Bama.
If 11-1 LSU were within 5 BCS places of 11-1 Bama, and LSU were #2 in the BCS relative to Bama, then LSU would indeed go to the SECCG.
My own preference for all this is that Auburn rise up and defeat Bama. I want to see Aubie beat Bama.
Maybe there will be a driving rainstorm and 15 Bama fumbles, four of which lead to easy Aubie scores.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:22 am to PJinAtl
quote:
Do we see Bama and Oregon playing for the MNC
no
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:24 am to ottothewise
quote:
My own preference for all this is that Auburn rise up and defeat Bama
Arkansas' golden ticket to the BCSNC if they somehow win out.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:48 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Arky over LSU likely drops LSU behind bama in both human polls.
A lot of people who follow the BCS closely and understand the formula disagree with this.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:54 am to noladan
Why because LSU beat UA, buit if Ark beats LSU should they not be ahead of LSU, but should not be ahead of UA. The only thing we do know is that the so called experts regarding the BCS usually have no clue. These are the sameones that said Stanford would be ahead of UA when we lost.
It will get real interesting this weekend if USC beats Oregon and they very well could. That would move Ark to 5th and better position themselves and if LSU drops to Ark I think they drop to 4 or 5 in the BCS behind the other 2 SECw teams and if that happens LSU will not even go to a BCS game.
In the end though it does not matter because I do not see Ark beating LSU and UA is going to get stuck playing Houston.
It will get real interesting this weekend if USC beats Oregon and they very well could. That would move Ark to 5th and better position themselves and if LSU drops to Ark I think they drop to 4 or 5 in the BCS behind the other 2 SECw teams and if that happens LSU will not even go to a BCS game.
In the end though it does not matter because I do not see Ark beating LSU and UA is going to get stuck playing Houston.
This post was edited on 11/15/11 at 9:55 am
Posted on 11/15/11 at 9:57 am to TideWarrior
quote:
if LSU drops to Ark I think they drop to 4 or 5 in the BCS behind the other 2 SECw teams and if that happens LSU will not even go to a BCS game.
Just because LSU could hypothetically be below Arkansas doesn't mean that the Sugar Bowl won't take LSU.
Posted on 11/15/11 at 10:26 am to TideWarrior
Clay Travis on his site thinks LSU can lose one game and still get in. But of course he could be wrong just like anyone else.
LINK
ButI really trust the people that spend time understanding the formula. This guy has earned some credibility over the last couple of years here and he gives a long breakdown of how he sees it playing out under different scenarios.
LINK
LINK
ButI really trust the people that spend time understanding the formula. This guy has earned some credibility over the last couple of years here and he gives a long breakdown of how he sees it playing out under different scenarios.
LINK
Posted on 11/15/11 at 10:37 am to noladan
It all depends on how far voters are willing to drop LSU losing to Arkansas. They didn't drop Bama very far at all.
If Okla St. and LSU fall, how odd would it be to have Bama and Oregon at #1 & #2. Both teams that have been beaten by LSU. LSU sits at #3 or #4 saying "hey we beat both the teams playing in the BCS Title game??"
I think even if Arkansas wins against LSU, and if Bama wins out, Hogs still will not go to the SECCG. The BCS ranking might still have LSU ahead of the hogs. LSU gets the edge for their win over Bama and being ranked #1 since week 8. Not to mention schedule strength over Bama as well. Tie might still go to LSU.
I say we just keep watching some of the best football in years and see what goes. Eitherway I think it's safe to say the West will be kicking some major tail in Bowl games this year!
If Okla St. and LSU fall, how odd would it be to have Bama and Oregon at #1 & #2. Both teams that have been beaten by LSU. LSU sits at #3 or #4 saying "hey we beat both the teams playing in the BCS Title game??"
I think even if Arkansas wins against LSU, and if Bama wins out, Hogs still will not go to the SECCG. The BCS ranking might still have LSU ahead of the hogs. LSU gets the edge for their win over Bama and being ranked #1 since week 8. Not to mention schedule strength over Bama as well. Tie might still go to LSU.
I say we just keep watching some of the best football in years and see what goes. Eitherway I think it's safe to say the West will be kicking some major tail in Bowl games this year!
Posted on 11/15/11 at 11:03 am to PJinAtl
The only way LSU drops behind both Bama and Arky would be if Arky destroyed LSU in DV. Anything less than that, LSU will stay ahead of Arky due to Arky struggling with A&M, Ole Miss and Vandy, and getting destroyed by Bama. If Bama doesn't lose anymore and LSU stays ahead of Arky, LSU plays in the SECCG. Of course, if Arky beats MSU and LSU, and Bama loses to Auburn, then Arky goes to Atlanta.
This post was edited on 11/15/11 at 11:07 am
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