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LSU - Auburn by the Numbers
Posted on 10/18/10 at 3:47 pm
Posted on 10/18/10 at 3:47 pm
TxHillsTiger Obvious Analysis by the Numbers:
Opponents National Rankings
Blinding OBVIOUS OBSERVATION:
Auburn has the better offense.
LSU has the better defense.
LSU has yet to face a top 10 offense.
Auburn has yet to face a top 10 defense.
Comparitive Analysis:
Auburn's Passing Offense is rated 76 nationally --
LSU has faced 3 teams with better passing rating:
- NC, LSU gave up 412 yards passing
- WV, LSU gave up 119 yards passing
- TN, LSU gave up 121 yards passing
Auburn's Rushing offense is rated 6th nationally --
LSU has not faced a rushing attack as powerful as Auburn's. However, the most LSU has given up in a game was to 152 to MS St.
LSU's Passing Offense is rated 113 --
Auburn has not faced a more dismal passing attack. However, Auburn has gave up 220 passing yards to Clemson (#89).
LSU's Rushing Offense is rated 33 nationally --
Against MS st (#21 rushing offense), Auburn gave up 117 yards net rushing.
Auburn has had 3 games decided by a field goal.
LSU has had 1 game decided by a field goal.
ILLOGICAL Observations:
LSU - Auburn has faced one common opponent this year in back-to-back weeks. Based on the numbers, LSU appears to have the better performance:
Auburn won 17 - 14, giving up a combined 246 yards, while gaining 348 yards.
LSU won 29 - 7, giving up a combined 268 yards, while gaining 264 yards.
Interesting enough, I keep seeing lots of Auburn and Bama fans talk about how LSU's win over Florida wasn't that big of a deal, because FL also lost to MS. If we are to use that logic, what do those same people feel about Auburn's last second win over Kentucky? You may recall, Florida trounced Kentucky earlier in the year?
Surprising Observations:
Each team has faced very comparable Rushing attacks.
Auburn has faced better overall offenses.
LSU has faced significantly better defenses.
Final Analysis and Prediction:
I expect LSU's defense to play its best game of the season.
I expect Cam Newton to have his best game of the season.
This game comes down to which weakness plays above themselves --
- if Auburn's run defense steps it up (even by a little) they win a close game.
- if LSU's passing game steps it up (more than a little) they win a close game.
This will not be a blow-out. LSU's running game will slow the pace down. Cam will have to throw the ball instead of running it.
LSU wins 27 - 24 on a 4th quarter drive by Jordan Lee. (yes, I said Jordan Lee on purpose... and yes, this is definitely a homer pick because this game is a damn toss-up.)
Stats taken from: NCAA Stats
Opponents National Rankings
Blinding OBVIOUS OBSERVATION:
Auburn has the better offense.
LSU has the better defense.
LSU has yet to face a top 10 offense.
Auburn has yet to face a top 10 defense.
Comparitive Analysis:
Auburn's Passing Offense is rated 76 nationally --
LSU has faced 3 teams with better passing rating:
- NC, LSU gave up 412 yards passing
- WV, LSU gave up 119 yards passing
- TN, LSU gave up 121 yards passing
Auburn's Rushing offense is rated 6th nationally --
LSU has not faced a rushing attack as powerful as Auburn's. However, the most LSU has given up in a game was to 152 to MS St.
LSU's Passing Offense is rated 113 --
Auburn has not faced a more dismal passing attack. However, Auburn has gave up 220 passing yards to Clemson (#89).
LSU's Rushing Offense is rated 33 nationally --
Against MS st (#21 rushing offense), Auburn gave up 117 yards net rushing.
Auburn has had 3 games decided by a field goal.
LSU has had 1 game decided by a field goal.
ILLOGICAL Observations:
LSU - Auburn has faced one common opponent this year in back-to-back weeks. Based on the numbers, LSU appears to have the better performance:
Auburn won 17 - 14, giving up a combined 246 yards, while gaining 348 yards.
LSU won 29 - 7, giving up a combined 268 yards, while gaining 264 yards.
Interesting enough, I keep seeing lots of Auburn and Bama fans talk about how LSU's win over Florida wasn't that big of a deal, because FL also lost to MS. If we are to use that logic, what do those same people feel about Auburn's last second win over Kentucky? You may recall, Florida trounced Kentucky earlier in the year?
Surprising Observations:
Each team has faced very comparable Rushing attacks.
Auburn has faced better overall offenses.
LSU has faced significantly better defenses.
Final Analysis and Prediction:
I expect LSU's defense to play its best game of the season.
I expect Cam Newton to have his best game of the season.
This game comes down to which weakness plays above themselves --
- if Auburn's run defense steps it up (even by a little) they win a close game.
- if LSU's passing game steps it up (more than a little) they win a close game.
This will not be a blow-out. LSU's running game will slow the pace down. Cam will have to throw the ball instead of running it.
LSU wins 27 - 24 on a 4th quarter drive by Jordan Lee. (yes, I said Jordan Lee on purpose... and yes, this is definitely a homer pick because this game is a damn toss-up.)
Stats taken from: NCAA Stats
3
Posted on 10/18/10 at 3:49 pm to TxHillsTiger
quote:
ILLOGICAL Observations:
LSU - Auburn has faced one common opponent this year in back-to-back weeks. Based on the numbers, LSU appears to have the better performance:
Auburn won 17 - 14, giving up a combined 246 yards, while gaining 348 yards.
LSU won 29 - 7, giving up a combined 268 yards, while gaining 264 yards.
At least you prefaced it with illogical.
Posted on 10/18/10 at 3:51 pm to TxHillsTiger
If LSU wins the game it won't be in the 4th Q. I will venture to say Auburn is the best 4th Q team in the country.
Posted on 10/18/10 at 3:54 pm to Marines4Auburn
quote:
If LSU wins the game it won't be in the 4th Q. I will venture to say Auburn is the best 4th Q team in the country.
Well shite, there goes his prediction right out the window. Guess they'll win it in the third right before Auburn forfeits the game.
Posted on 10/18/10 at 3:55 pm to Marines4Auburn
Dont wait for the 4th Q to mount your attack. Au has given up 13 points in teh 4th while grabbing 8 TO's in the two hardest SEC games.
Posted on 10/18/10 at 4:15 pm to parkjas2001
quote:
Dont wait for the 4th Q to mount your attack.
Well -- I personally won't be playing the game. But, I believe I mentioned that I felt LSU will win on *a* 4th QTR drive. BTW, when LSU does win on a 4th QTR drive, exactly what position will you be playing on the field?
quote:
I will venture to say Auburn is the best 4th Q team
I would venture to say, Auburn has yet to play a team with the depth chart on the D-line that LSU has -- you are able to score late because you have one guy that can out run a bunch of tired linemen. That doesn't happen in the 4th quarter of this game.
Again -- this was just my exercise in evaluating the two teams from objective numbers. If I wanted to use emotional outbursts, I'd just saying something like...
Hell, LSU is 7 - 0 and they've done that with a serviceable quarterback for only 2 games during part time play.
Do you think Auburn will run away from LSU like they have those other teams? If so, give some supporting reasons why you think that? These were just my random observations on a Monday afternoon that I chose to use to support my Homer pick.
Fair is fair -- elaborate to me how you support your Homer pick?
This post was edited on 10/18/10 at 4:16 pm
Posted on 10/18/10 at 4:48 pm to TxHillsTiger
quote:
Surprising Observations:
Each team has faced very comparable Rushing attacks.
Auburn has faced better overall offenses.
LSU has faced significantly better defenses
Your suggestion here is incorrect...that there is a greater discrepancy in defenses faced, than offenses faced...yet the stats that you were just looking at are pretty clear to the counter. By average: D faced by AU scoring is 16 spots lower in the rankings, total D 15 spots lower in the rankings than what LSU has faced.
By average: O faced by LSU scoring is 21 spots lower in the ranking, total O 19 spots lower than what AU has faced.
These stats, of course, can be misleading though. For instance, WVU is by far, statistically, the most stout D LSU has faced and pulls up their numbers....but they play in the friggin Big Yeast...and I'm sure there are skewing factors in AU's stats
I think statistically, it's a wash. Add in the fact that LSU lacks the ability to exploit AU's weakness and home field advantage and you ought to have a close AU win. But really, could go either way.
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