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I found this interesting for the top 32 drafted players and their
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:27 am
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:27 am
star rating coming out of high school. The breakout is as follows.
• 2-Star – 5 (15.6%)
• 3-Star – 7 (21.9%)
• 4-Star – 15 (46.9%)
• 5-Star – 5 (15.6%)
The 2 & 3 Star Rated players made up 37.5% of the top 32 taken while the 4 & 5 Star players comprised of 62.5%.
The 3-Star group can lay claim to the #1 overall pick and 4 out of the top 10 while 4-Star & 5 Star players had 3 of the top ten each.
A real eye-opener on the “accuracy” the star-system is that 5 players (almost 16% of the top 32 players taken in the 1st round of the NFL Draft) were ranked only a 2-star coming our of High School. You know that a coach of any top program would have been vilified both by his own fans and opposing fans alike if he had signed all five of these players in a single year and would have been labeled as a coach who couldn’t recruit.
I concede that it’s easy for the average fan to get excited to see 4 and 5 start recruits added to their team and many of them do work out as advertised. But, the real evaluation of a player’s skill will come after two to three years in college.
Until then recruiting ratings really mean very little and I’m sure the NFL Teams drafting these players couldn’t care less what some jort wearing “recruiting expert” , who probably never even played the game past Jr. High, rated them out of high school.
• 2-Star – 5 (15.6%)
• 3-Star – 7 (21.9%)
• 4-Star – 15 (46.9%)
• 5-Star – 5 (15.6%)
The 2 & 3 Star Rated players made up 37.5% of the top 32 taken while the 4 & 5 Star players comprised of 62.5%.
The 3-Star group can lay claim to the #1 overall pick and 4 out of the top 10 while 4-Star & 5 Star players had 3 of the top ten each.
A real eye-opener on the “accuracy” the star-system is that 5 players (almost 16% of the top 32 players taken in the 1st round of the NFL Draft) were ranked only a 2-star coming our of High School. You know that a coach of any top program would have been vilified both by his own fans and opposing fans alike if he had signed all five of these players in a single year and would have been labeled as a coach who couldn’t recruit.
I concede that it’s easy for the average fan to get excited to see 4 and 5 start recruits added to their team and many of them do work out as advertised. But, the real evaluation of a player’s skill will come after two to three years in college.
Until then recruiting ratings really mean very little and I’m sure the NFL Teams drafting these players couldn’t care less what some jort wearing “recruiting expert” , who probably never even played the game past Jr. High, rated them out of high school.
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Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:29 am to Choctaw Hog
How about this, break down the percentage chance of a five star going in the first round as opposed to a three star.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:30 am to Choctaw Hog
I wouldn't expect anyone other than a Hawg or MSU fan to make this post.
Whatever helps you sleep at night.
Whatever helps you sleep at night.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:31 am to Choctaw Hog
Interesting. Just curious, Rivals rankings?
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:31 am to Tennessee Jed
That would make too much sense, and would not make the arky fan feel better about recruiting.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:32 am to pankReb
quote:
I wouldn't expect anyone other than a Hawg or MSU fan to make this post.
Whatever helps you sleep at night.
Nice retort Reb. What do you disagree with?
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:32 am to Tennessee Jed
quote:
How about this, break down the percentage chance of a five star going in the first round as opposed to a three star.
I think to fully understand what's going on, you need to break down the percentages of exactly how many 2,3,4, and 5 star athletes there are going into the draft.
The percentages as broken down in the OP doesn't provide that variable and assumes that there are equal amounts in each class.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:32 am to Vol Fan in the Bayou
quote:
Interesting. Just curious, Rivals rankings?
Yes. I didn't spend too much time looking at them just a quick glance.
This post was edited on 4/23/10 at 9:34 am
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:32 am to Choctaw Hog
5-stars still have far and away the best chance of being taken in the first round. I can't remember what the exact stats were but it was something like a 5-star recruit has an 8% chance of being a first-round draft pick, and less stars substantially smaller chances. The higher number of 4- and 3- star players taken in the first round reflects that there are many more players rated 4- and 3-stars by the recruiting services.
Until teams stacked with 2-star recruits on the 2-deep start winning national championships, bashing recruiting services also means very little.
Until teams stacked with 2-star recruits on the 2-deep start winning national championships, bashing recruiting services also means very little.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:32 am to Tennessee Jed
quote:
How about this, break down the percentage chance of a five star going in the first round as opposed to a three star.
Too damn much work. I'll leave that to someone else.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:33 am to pankReb
this again. geez. there are twice as many 4* as 5* and twice as many 3* as 4*. Of course there is going to be more 3* and 4* taken first round because theres 3 times as many
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:34 am to LA kid but AU fan
quote:
That would make too much sense, and would not make the arky fan feel better about recruiting.
Yet another brilliant post by an Auburn Fan. Thanks for adding your insights to the thread.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:35 am to pankReb
quote:
The percentages as broken down in the OP doesn't provide that variable and assumes that there are equal amounts in each class.
+1
This is lost with some.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:35 am to Choctaw Hog
quote:
Nice retort Reb. What do you disagree with?
The fact that there are VASTLY more 2/3 stars going into the draft vs 4/5 stars.
The Tenn fan said it correctly. You need to show the percentage chance of an individual getting drafted in the 1st round. To do that, you need to include how many 2,3,4, and 5 star athletes came out of high school with this draft class.
Like I said. This is a poor analysis. You left out variables that drastically alter the results.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:35 am to Whereisomaha
quote:
this again. geez. there are twice as many 4* as 5* and twice as many 3* as 4*. Of course there is going to be more 3* and 4* taken first round because theres 3 times as many
No shite. Thanks for stating the obvious.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:37 am to Choctaw Hog
quote:
No shite. Thanks for stating the obvious
Then why is it interesting that there are more 3* and 4* taken in the first round. Is this not the point of your thread?
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:37 am to Choctaw Hog
quote:
this again. geez. there are twice as many 4* as 5* and twice as many 3* as 4*. Of course there is going to be more 3* and 4* taken first round because theres 3 times as many
No shite. Thanks for stating the obvious.
Then would you agree that this is a poorly done analysis? One which you did not include vital information?
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:38 am to pankReb
quote:
The fact that there are VASTLY more 2/3 stars going into the draft vs 4/5 stars.
The Tenn fan said it correctly. You need to show the percentage chance of an individual getting drafted in the 1st round. To do that, you need to include how many 2,3,4, and 5 star athletes came out of high school with this draft class.
Like I said. This is a poor analysis. You left out variables that drastically alter the results.
The Tennessee fan didn't "say" anything. He posted his opinion. All I did was break down the top 32 players by their star ratings. You are welcome to add any variable you want.
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:39 am to Choctaw Hog
last year rivals had 33 5 stars
had almost 220 4 stars
i'm sure a ton more 3 stars and all the rest are 2 stars....so basically if those stats are the same every year...then 15% of 5 stars got drafted, almost 7% of all 4 stars got drafted ~ don't know the rest of the numbers, but you have to imagine the % drop is substantial
had almost 220 4 stars
i'm sure a ton more 3 stars and all the rest are 2 stars....so basically if those stats are the same every year...then 15% of 5 stars got drafted, almost 7% of all 4 stars got drafted ~ don't know the rest of the numbers, but you have to imagine the % drop is substantial
Posted on 4/23/10 at 9:39 am to Choctaw Hog
quote:
The Tennessee fan didn't "say" anything. He posted his opinion. All I did was break down the top 32 players by their star ratings. You are welcome to add any variable you want.
He did say something. He just didn't explain what he said and I figured it out.
The variables that I would add are the numbers of the different star classes factored in.
Your analysis makes it look like # of 2's = # of 3's = # of 4's = # of 5's.
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