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Projecting the 2015 season
Posted on 7/27/15 at 11:50 am
Posted on 7/27/15 at 11:50 am
ESPN's FPI projections for us this year are here. It has us favored in each game except Bama.
Here are mine:
UT Martin: 100%
Fresno: 100%
Bama: 25%
Vanderbilt: 90%
Florida: 65%
New Mexico State: 100%
Memphis: 85%
A&M: 60%
Auburn: 40%
Arkansas: 60%
LSU: 60%
State: 50%
Projected wins: 8.35. Basically, we've got 5 games in which we're the heavy favorite, one in which we're the heavy underdog, and 6 games that are toss ups or close to it.
I assume that our defense will be as good as last year's, that our running game will be better, and that our QB/passing game will not be as good.
It really sucks playing in a loaded division. (If you did the same analysis for each of the SECw teams, though, I bet they'd all be between 7 and 9 expected wins, even Bama.)
Here are mine:
UT Martin: 100%
Fresno: 100%
Bama: 25%
Vanderbilt: 90%
Florida: 65%
New Mexico State: 100%
Memphis: 85%
A&M: 60%
Auburn: 40%
Arkansas: 60%
LSU: 60%
State: 50%
Projected wins: 8.35. Basically, we've got 5 games in which we're the heavy favorite, one in which we're the heavy underdog, and 6 games that are toss ups or close to it.
I assume that our defense will be as good as last year's, that our running game will be better, and that our QB/passing game will not be as good.
It really sucks playing in a loaded division. (If you did the same analysis for each of the SECw teams, though, I bet they'd all be between 7 and 9 expected wins, even Bama.)
7
Posted on 7/27/15 at 11:53 am to Chawboy
quote:
State: 50%
nb4statefan
Posted on 7/27/15 at 11:55 am to Chawboy
Tossups: Bama, A&M, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, State
Like last year we have to split or better to have a successful year. Florida's offensive situation is putrid, Memphis returns only 3 starters on defense, and the rest of our OOC is a joke.
9-3 losses to Bama, Auburn, Arkansas
Like last year we have to split or better to have a successful year. Florida's offensive situation is putrid, Memphis returns only 3 starters on defense, and the rest of our OOC is a joke.
9-3 losses to Bama, Auburn, Arkansas
Posted on 7/27/15 at 12:04 pm to DMagic
quote:
Tossups: Bama, A&M, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, State
I wouldn't put Bama in the "toss up" category. We have a better chance to beat them in Tuscaloosa this year than we've had in a long time . . . but I still can't call it a tossup when we haven't won there since 1988.
I think Auburn maybe is overrated and more of a tossup than Auburn fans think, mainly because Auburn doesn't have the defensive depth for Malzahn's HUNH, and Malzahn doesn't have the sense to slow down to protect his defense (See the Georgia game last year).
If we take Bama out of the tossup category, and give ourselves a win against Florida, then we're still at 8.5 projected wins.
The flip side is that if we manage to beat Bama in Tuscaloosa, we'll instantly become the favorite to win the SECw.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 12:16 pm to Chawboy
quote:
but I still can't call it a tossup when we haven't won there since 1988.
Understandable. Talent wise it's a tossup. We are very similar this year personnel wise. Talented defense and question marks at QB and the offensive line. They've unquestionably recruited better than us but our line is more experienced. Experience counts in big games and our guys have been through plenty in the past couple of years. Still think it's a loss because they're Bama and we are Ole Miss.
quote:
Malzahn doesn't have the sense to slow down to protect his defense
He couldn't slow down because his defense was a sieve for most of the year. It won't be as bad as last year but it certainly won't be great. Their secondary will be awful and our WRs will eat again but just like BDS we never win in JHS.
quote:
give ourselves a win against Florida
I think their offense is going to be just awful. New scheme, new offensive line, huge questions at QB and WR. If they score more than 10 on us I will be disappointed. On the other hand their defense should be good and I expect a game similar to the Boise, Memphis, or Tennessee game last year.
quote:
The flip side is that if we manage to beat Bama in Tuscaloosa, we'll instantly become the favorite to win the SECw
It would certainly put us in a good situation but we still have murderer's row late in the season.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 12:27 pm to DMagic
8-9 wins
Posted on 7/27/15 at 12:29 pm to DMagic
quote:
9-3 losses to Bama, Auburn, Arkansas
The first two I can live with but Arkansas....I want to pound them like a grudge frick!
Posted on 7/27/15 at 12:33 pm to ABearsFanNMS
We play them at the end of a 10 game stretch with no byes. That's after playing both Alabama schools and Florida on the road and the queers at home. Hopefully they'll be halfway as beat up as we inevitably will be. Thank Christ Almighty Flowers and Speight are gone.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 12:40 pm to Chawboy
UT Martin: 100%
Fresno: 90%%
Bama: 10%
Vanderbilt: 100%
Florida: 60%
New Mexico State: 100%
Memphis: 80%
A&M: 75%
Auburn: 40%
Arkansas: 50%
LSU: 55%
State: 40%
Fresno: 90%%
Bama: 10%
Vanderbilt: 100%
Florida: 60%
New Mexico State: 100%
Memphis: 80%
A&M: 75%
Auburn: 40%
Arkansas: 50%
LSU: 55%
State: 40%
Posted on 7/27/15 at 12:41 pm to DMagic
quote:
Thank Christ Almighty Flowers and Speight are gone.
Throw in the DT (name started with a Ph) and I wholeheartedly agree!
Posted on 7/27/15 at 12:42 pm to DMagic
quote:
It would certainly put us in a good situation but we still have murderer's row late in the season.
True, but if we're good enough to beat Bama in Tuscaloosa, we'll be a lot better than most people expect us to be. I.e., some of those "toss up" games won't really be toss ups.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 12:47 pm to DMagic
quote:
It would certainly put us in a good situation but we still have murderer's row late in the season.
Our last four games actually set up nicely. We should split the four at minimum.
@ AU
Ark
-bye-
LSU
@ state
Having the bye week in the middle is huge, as well as getting two homes games out of those four. No one can predict where we'll be injury wise, but this scenario is probably as good as you could ask for
Posted on 7/27/15 at 2:38 pm to Chawboy
quote:
UT Martin: 100%
Fresno: 100%
Bama: 30% - Bama is down this year, obviously it would still be a big upset, but we definitely have a puncher's chance
Vanderbilt: 100% - Vandy is a train wreck
Florida: 65%
New Mexico State: 100%
Memphis: 90% - Game feels weird but I expect an unconvincing win
A&M: 70% - A&M's defense still sucks
Auburn: 30% - I feel like we have a better chance in Ttown
Arkansas: 70% - Arky is a bit overrated and hasn't proven anything on the road yet
LSU: 50% - Game is always a coin flip and their defense should be salty
State: 50%
I think @ Auburn is our toughest game on the schedule, although we should have extreme revenge and motivation on our side.
9-3. Losses to both Alabama schools and LSU.
This post was edited on 7/27/15 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 7/27/15 at 6:36 pm to Chawboy
UT Martin: 100%
Fresno: 100%
Bama: 35%
Vanderbilt: 99%
Florida: 88%
New Mexico State: 100%
Memphis: 97%
A&M: 85%
Auburn: 40%
Arkansas: 55%
LSU: 65%
State: 55%
Fresno: 100%
Bama: 35%
Vanderbilt: 99%
Florida: 88%
New Mexico State: 100%
Memphis: 97%
A&M: 85%
Auburn: 40%
Arkansas: 55%
LSU: 65%
State: 55%
This post was edited on 7/27/15 at 6:37 pm
Posted on 7/27/15 at 7:01 pm to WithaRebelYell
Watched the replay of the Auburn game.
I noticed at the beginning of the game we had to move some folks around. Tunsil's shoulder was hurt, so Cooper moved to left tackle. Conyers was going to start at center but ended up at right tackle and Ben Still who wasn't healthy enough to get the start had to play center.
Even with that much change at the last minute the offense was able to score on Auburn.
Arkansas is getting too much credit, without the 6 turnovers they don't beat the Rebels this year. Of course, if it rains, all bets are off.
I think the QB play is going to be as good as last season. If the run game can improve the Rebels will definitely be in the mix in the west.
9-3 just because it's the sec. Finish with a bowl win and it's all good.
I noticed at the beginning of the game we had to move some folks around. Tunsil's shoulder was hurt, so Cooper moved to left tackle. Conyers was going to start at center but ended up at right tackle and Ben Still who wasn't healthy enough to get the start had to play center.
Even with that much change at the last minute the offense was able to score on Auburn.
Arkansas is getting too much credit, without the 6 turnovers they don't beat the Rebels this year. Of course, if it rains, all bets are off.
I think the QB play is going to be as good as last season. If the run game can improve the Rebels will definitely be in the mix in the west.
9-3 just because it's the sec. Finish with a bowl win and it's all good.
This post was edited on 7/27/15 at 7:02 pm
Posted on 7/27/15 at 7:53 pm to TSUNRebel
I was looking back over the Arky box score: they averaged just 3.2 ypc on 50 carries.
Jonathan Williams: 20 carries for 81 yards.
His line against Bama: 20 carries for 83 yards.
Our defense was stout against Arky. Our defense only had one "bad" performance all regular season (Auburn). Auburn's offense was just really good that night.
Jonathan Williams: 20 carries for 81 yards.
His line against Bama: 20 carries for 83 yards.
Our defense was stout against Arky. Our defense only had one "bad" performance all regular season (Auburn). Auburn's offense was just really good that night.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 8:13 pm to TSUNRebel
Yeah but if muschamp makes that a top 8 sec defense that team is going to be dangerous. I also think Texas a&m will be dangerous with a good defense but they are at least a year away chavis is good but not that good.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 9:51 pm to Chawboy
8-3 going into the Egg Bowl.
Posted on 7/27/15 at 10:07 pm to pivey14
So 9-3 to finish the year?
For real though, I agree with 8-3 going to the egg bowl and it being a toss up
For real though, I agree with 8-3 going to the egg bowl and it being a toss up
Posted on 7/28/15 at 9:08 am to olemiss5931
UT Martin: 100%
Fresno: 99%
@ Bama: 40%
Vanderbilt: 99%
@ Florida: 80%
New Mexico State: 100%
@ Memphis: 99%
A&M: 85%
@ Auburn: 45%
Arkansas: 60%
-BYE-
LSU: 60%
@ State: 65%
I hate to speculate before we even decide on who's starting at QB - on our roster and throughout the league. BUT, and I'll expand the thread a little bit. I think it's between us and Bama for the West. Either one being a 1 or 2 loss team. And Georgia/Mizzou for the East - nothing maverick there.
Fresno: 99%
@ Bama: 40%
Vanderbilt: 99%
@ Florida: 80%
New Mexico State: 100%
@ Memphis: 99%
A&M: 85%
@ Auburn: 45%
Arkansas: 60%
-BYE-
LSU: 60%
@ State: 65%
I hate to speculate before we even decide on who's starting at QB - on our roster and throughout the league. BUT, and I'll expand the thread a little bit. I think it's between us and Bama for the West. Either one being a 1 or 2 loss team. And Georgia/Mizzou for the East - nothing maverick there.
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