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re: well since Trump is gonna be the GOP Nominee....

Posted on 5/4/16 at 9:13 am to
Posted by boogiewoogie1978
Little Rock
Member since Aug 2012
16946 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 9:13 am to
This election will be decided more by the people not voting than the ones who will.
Posted by BlackPawnMartyr
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2010
15285 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 10:19 am to
Or just diff people voting than the fringe on far right and left. Will be nice to get some moderate Rs voting who are tired of the party being owned by banksters masquerading as evangicals.
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 10:26 am to
I think a lot of people are going to be angry when Trump gets into office and flip flops back to democrat ideals
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 10:34 am to
quote:

This election will be decided more by the people not voting than the ones who will.


quote:

Or just diff people voting than the fringe on far right and left.


Both these statements are very accurate.

Here's another interesting observation. It isn't a secret that polling the nationwide popular preference for president is a meaningless exercise. The Electoral College is all that matters and a few swing states usually end up deciding the election.

Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida are four of the biggest ones. All four of those states have open primaries and in every single one of the the turnout for the R primary was greater than the D.

Wisconson +72,000
Florida +653,000
Ohio +550,000
Michigan +87,000

In those states, the evidence available suggests that the energized voter is leaning R. That is incredibly important because if the Rs flip just those 4 states in 2012, Mitt Romney wins the election.

I'm not making a prediction on the outcome. It is a LONG time until November but anyone who says Trump cannot win is delusional at best.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 10:36 am to
quote:

I think a lot of people are going to be angry when Trump gets into office and flip flops back to democrat ideals


Would not surprise me one bit. I guarantee you it will happen on a lot of social issues. My only hope is that he keeps his word on trade and immigration and makes decent SCOTUS appointments.
Posted by pvilleguru
Member since Jun 2009
60453 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 11:08 am to
I still won't vote.

But it won't matter regardless of who I would vote for because the vast majority of the voters in Alabama will go with whoever the Republicans trot out there.
This post was edited on 5/4/16 at 11:12 am
Posted by bayoumuscle21
St. George
Member since Jan 2012
4633 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 11:17 am to
quote:

Are y'all gonna vote for Trump, Hillary or 3rd party? i'll personally votefor the libertarian candidate. i refuse to give my vote to a corrupt POS or that jackass Trump.



If you vote for anyone but Trump, you might as well not vote. Someone who doesn't vote or votes third party is a vote for Hillary. Like every other election, I'm voting against someone not for someone.
Posted by cincyykid
in a swamp far far away
Member since Mar 2016
1302 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 11:50 am to
Trump, as terrible as he is, is infinitely better than hillary, and anyone who votes 3rd party might as well do like one guy said and go fishing on election day.
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
118889 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 12:02 pm to
It's gonna matter who is Trump's VP. He has to get a solid conservative. My vote is for Condoleeza Rice.
Posted by WheelRoute
Washington, D.C.
Member since Oct 2013
1811 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 12:04 pm to
GOP is basically a failed state at this point. What a shitshow. Completely directionless, philosophically incoherent, zero talent, and no vision. W's presidency wasn't just ruinous for the U.S., it totaled his party, too.

Hillary wins in a landslide. If I'm wrong, dems win anyways b/c Trump isn't a Republican. It's been a fun campaign season for the good guys.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

It's gonna matter who is Trump's VP. He has to get a solid conservative. My vote is for Condoleeza Rice.


I disagree. He doesn't need a far right VP (and I'm personally far right) to win this fall.

Look at the states he won in the R primary.

Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Louisiana
Mississippi
South Carolina
Tennessee
Kentucky
West Virginia
North Carolina

He won every single state that could remotely be considered part of the traditional conservative bible belt except Texas - and Texas isn't going D no matter who is on either ticket.

I have great respect for Condi Rice, but the absolute LAST thing Trump needs is to pick a VP that might help him in states he is going to win anyhow - and particularly a VP that would inexorably tie him to the foreign policies of the Bush administration.

He needs a good VP candidate to help him in the fall, but that candidate needs to meet two fundamental criteria.

1) Be someone that will help solidify the ticket in the more moderate swing states that will determine who wins the Electoral College.

2) Be someone with experience in government but far enough removed from Washington to still be able to run as an outsider.

If I were Trump, John Kaish would have to turn me down at least 10 times before I moved on to my second choice.
Posted by MontyFranklyn
T-Town
Member since Jan 2012
23830 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

Virtually all R voters will vote for Trump.
That is a very strong assumption
Posted by Year of the Dragon
Member since Feb 2016
404 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 12:48 pm to
Bernie supporter here. Basically, living in Alabama, my vote will be worthless anyway. Trump will carry our state easily. However, since Bernie is out, I'll reluctantly vote for Hillary. I feel like a lot of Sanders voters will come to their senses once Hillary "officially" gets the nomination. Once the reality of a Trump presidency sets in, I think Sander's folks will make the tough decision to not sit the election out. My biggest fear is that the young voters who have been energized by Bernie don't turn out to vote for Hillary. They tend not to come out to vote very well. I think some of Bernie's supporters are still delusional about holding out hope that he has any chance left to win. I'm not one of these. Unfortunately, big money still runs our political system. Like Bill Maher said, "If you can't eat steak, eat the chicken."
This post was edited on 5/4/16 at 1:03 pm
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

That is a very strong assumption


I wouldn't make it in a normal year, but this isn't a normal year. Consider:

There's a very strong anti-establishment sentiment running.

The R voters have just lived through 8 years of BHO, with the last 4 due in great part to the fact that they didn't come out for the "Northeastern Mormon".

Most R voters hate HRC - possibly more than they hate Obama.

Scalia's dead. Ginsburg's probably dead, but nobody's bothered to check her pulse lately, and Breyer and Kennedy are both nearly 80. The next president may appoint as many as 4 SCOTUS justices. The R voters know what that will mean for things like Heller if HRC makes those appointments. They're not going to stay home with that on the line.
Posted by Year of the Dragon
Member since Feb 2016
404 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 12:49 pm to
quote:


Hillary wins in a landslide.


I hope you are right.
Posted by Year of the Dragon
Member since Feb 2016
404 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

. The next president may appoint as many as 4 SCOTUS justices.


I hope this will energize Dems as well to come out and vote. In general, Democrats have a strong showing in Presidential elections. Hopefully, the Dems can re-take control over the Senate. Don't think they have a chance in the House.

The bigger question is how Republican senators and representatives run their races. Are they anti Trump or pro-Trump?
Posted by VolFanInCzechRep
Prague, Czech Republic
Member since Sep 2015
285 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 1:01 pm to
quote:

id rather a wall than the disaster of open borders

so you would rather build a wall and enforce a immigration policy that would cost this nation $1.2 trillion dollars? that's all i need to hear
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

The next president may appoint as many as 4 SCOTUS justices. The R voters know what that will mean for things like Heller if HRC makes those appointments. They're not going to stay home with that on the line.




The average voter couldn't really care less about Supreme Court nominations. I think it's the most important issue in this election, but many voters probably don't even know the President nominates the Supreme Court justices.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 1:09 pm to
quote:

The average voter couldn't really care less about Supreme Court nominations. I think it's the most important issue in this election, but many voters probably don't even know the President nominates the Supreme Court justices.


I generally agree that it isn't considered by the average voter, that's why I put it last in my list. The thing that makes it different this year is the fact that there's going to be a vacancy all summer and a lot of 4 to 4 ties will bring attention that it wouldn't usually get.

And while we don't agree politically you're 100% right in that SCOTUS appointments are the single most important domestic act performed by any president.
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 5/4/16 at 1:28 pm to
Do they have any big cases from this session they haven't ruled on yet? I know all oral arguments for this session are done until October, and I thought they'd given rulings on most of the big cases from this session. Unless I'm missing one, I don't see that many 4-4 decision in big cases before the election.
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