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The Official? Mid-Term Election Thread
Posted on 10/29/14 at 4:32 pm
Posted on 10/29/14 at 4:32 pm
Southern political watchers, election season is now upon us. Here be the place to discuss races in your state and make predictions as to the lay of the land come early 2015.
This cycle has made me thankful Louisiana isn't a swing state. Superpacs are doing work with the carpetbombing. Crossroads GPS and the Senate Majority PAC both have a special place in hell.
The Senate race is all Bill Cassidy (R). He's ran against Barack Obama. Cassidy is basically a white woman he is so opposite of Barack Obama...wait? Also did you know Mary Landrieu voted with Barack Obama 97% of the time? It's basically Cassidy's slogan, and it's going to work splendidly.
Landrieu has actually run a good campaign. Highlighting all the bacon she's brought back to the State. She really wants to make the race about Louisiana and what she has and will do for the State going forward. She is also quick to remind you that Bill Cassidy hates old people and wants them to work until they are 70. It's funny to watch an incumbent run such a challenger's race, but such is the political climate in 2014 and especially in such a red state.
This one goes to a runoff but Bill Cassidy wins by 6-7 % when it is all said and done.
Footnote: Edwin Edwards, former La. Governor and convicted felon, will be in a runoff for my congressional district. He will lose to the Republican (either Dan Claitor or Garrett Graves) but that will look wonderful for the state. Make no mistake though, there's probably not a better politician alive than EWE.
Now folks from other states, give us a rundown of the major races in your state and predictions for the Senate split and House split.
Senate: 52/48 GOP
House: Don't have a number but a bloodbath for the Dems.
This cycle has made me thankful Louisiana isn't a swing state. Superpacs are doing work with the carpetbombing. Crossroads GPS and the Senate Majority PAC both have a special place in hell.
The Senate race is all Bill Cassidy (R). He's ran against Barack Obama. Cassidy is basically a white woman he is so opposite of Barack Obama...wait? Also did you know Mary Landrieu voted with Barack Obama 97% of the time? It's basically Cassidy's slogan, and it's going to work splendidly.
Landrieu has actually run a good campaign. Highlighting all the bacon she's brought back to the State. She really wants to make the race about Louisiana and what she has and will do for the State going forward. She is also quick to remind you that Bill Cassidy hates old people and wants them to work until they are 70. It's funny to watch an incumbent run such a challenger's race, but such is the political climate in 2014 and especially in such a red state.
This one goes to a runoff but Bill Cassidy wins by 6-7 % when it is all said and done.
Footnote: Edwin Edwards, former La. Governor and convicted felon, will be in a runoff for my congressional district. He will lose to the Republican (either Dan Claitor or Garrett Graves) but that will look wonderful for the state. Make no mistake though, there's probably not a better politician alive than EWE.
Now folks from other states, give us a rundown of the major races in your state and predictions for the Senate split and House split.
Senate: 52/48 GOP
House: Don't have a number but a bloodbath for the Dems.
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Posted on 10/29/14 at 4:37 pm to Duke
I'll be interested in seeing whether Grimes can take McConnell here. Depending on what poll you read, it's all over the place.
US Rep John Yarmuth (D) should retain his seat.
US Rep John Yarmuth (D) should retain his seat.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 4:42 pm to Duke
I'm just glad that the Tea Party has been relatively quiet. I think there are a lot of reputable and respectable Republicans/Conservatives who sort of got unjustly lumped in with them.
I hope we have a Presidential candidate who moves to get money out of politics -- I think that would be a very popular position even if it's unrealistic to some degree.
And you asked for my state, but I have no idea what's going on here in Mexico City regarding elections.
We're all about to riot over the missing students in Guerrero.
I hope we have a Presidential candidate who moves to get money out of politics -- I think that would be a very popular position even if it's unrealistic to some degree.
And you asked for my state, but I have no idea what's going on here in Mexico City regarding elections.
We're all about to riot over the missing students in Guerrero.
This post was edited on 10/29/14 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 10/29/14 at 4:42 pm to Duke
Only interesting battle in Alabama is for Lt Governor. Young whippersnapper Joe Hubbard(D) is a politician at heart and has attacked Big Luther Strange(R) at every opportunity. Luther has been pretty worthless in office, and has repeatedly refused to give opinions on state laws. Hubbard is kind of a douche. Luther will win by 5-6% simply because of the R next to his name and all the straight ticket voters in this state.
There's a gubernatorial race, and both candidates are horrible. Bentley(R) is the incumbent and has pretty much been a rubber stamp for the super majority House and Senate. The governor's office doesn't hold much power in Alabama to begin with, but he's been as meek of a governor as I've seen while living here. Parker Griffith(D-R-D) is his challenger and didn't even want to run to begin with. He was a Democrat, then turned Republican, then switched back to Democrat. He is a gigantic a-hole according to a friend that knows him. Bentley wins by 8-10% points.
There's a US House seat up for grabs in my district. Gary Palmer(R) will win because this district is so conservative, but his challenger, Mark Lester(D), is really sharp. He didn't enter the race until a few months ago though, and has too much ground to make up. Palmer is a nice enough guy, I reckon. That's probably the only race I'll even cast a vote in and I'm leaning Lester.
There's a gubernatorial race, and both candidates are horrible. Bentley(R) is the incumbent and has pretty much been a rubber stamp for the super majority House and Senate. The governor's office doesn't hold much power in Alabama to begin with, but he's been as meek of a governor as I've seen while living here. Parker Griffith(D-R-D) is his challenger and didn't even want to run to begin with. He was a Democrat, then turned Republican, then switched back to Democrat. He is a gigantic a-hole according to a friend that knows him. Bentley wins by 8-10% points.
There's a US House seat up for grabs in my district. Gary Palmer(R) will win because this district is so conservative, but his challenger, Mark Lester(D), is really sharp. He didn't enter the race until a few months ago though, and has too much ground to make up. Palmer is a nice enough guy, I reckon. That's probably the only race I'll even cast a vote in and I'm leaning Lester.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 4:54 pm to BluegrassBelle
The Clinton machine against the guy who will be the most powerful person in the Senate if he wins. Hard to beleive Kentucky would choose to not have the likely Majority Leader reelected, but I imagine it has a lot to do with the fact he seems about as likeable as ebola diarrhea.
I'm sure the ads are worse up there with their collective war chests.
I'm sure the ads are worse up there with their collective war chests.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:00 pm to Duke
quote:
Hard to beleive Kentucky would choose to not have the likely Majority Leader reelected, but I imagine it has a lot to do with the fact he seems about as likeable as ebola diarrhea.
Honestly, I think there's a lot of GOP folks who are as unhappy with McConnell as there are Dems at this point. But they didn't have much in opposition to him within the party or independent and I don't see Grimes grabbing many votes outside of the Democratic party. You never know though. I never would've thought people here would've bought into Rand Paul either.
It just makes me sad that we can't find anybody to take him out and I'm not even talking about just on the left side of the aisle either.
quote:
I'm sure the ads are worse up there with their collective war chests.
It's an unmitigated shitshow.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:00 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
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I'm just glad that the Tea Party has been relatively quiet.
The Tea Party had some good ideas. Those opposed to the large corporate interest in politics. The TP groups couldn't get out of their own way though, because much of the movement was driven by conservative rage. Allowing whoever said the right thing the angriest to get nominated and every shitty conservative shill throwing their name behind it to make a buck. The name has become toxic.
That's great news for the libertarians of the world who are in better and better position to swing that side of the GOP their way.
Sidebar: didn't your Prez run on stopping the cartels? Fine job he's done huh?
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:04 pm to Duke
Projections are calling for a bloodbath of the democrats. I will enjoy the MSNBC melt.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:08 pm to BluegrassBelle
McConnell has expanded his lead in the polls over Grimes and is expected to win easily.
Cotton is expected to unseat Pryor in Arkansas.
The North Carolina Senate Race is a dead heat so far.
Scott Brown (R) has been gaining in the polls in New Hampshire and basically tied with the Democrat
Early voting returns in Colorado show Incumbent Sen. Udall (D) down
Total votes: 905,500
Republicans: 379,250 (42%)
Democrats: 294,648 (33%)
Unaffiliated: 222,043 (25%)
Cotton is expected to unseat Pryor in Arkansas.
The North Carolina Senate Race is a dead heat so far.
Scott Brown (R) has been gaining in the polls in New Hampshire and basically tied with the Democrat
Early voting returns in Colorado show Incumbent Sen. Udall (D) down
Total votes: 905,500
Republicans: 379,250 (42%)
Democrats: 294,648 (33%)
Unaffiliated: 222,043 (25%)
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:08 pm to Duke
quote:
The Tea Party had some good ideas. Those opposed to the large corporate interest in politics. The TP groups couldn't get out of their own way though, because much of the movement was driven by conservative rage. Allowing whoever said the right thing the angriest to get nominated and every shitty conservative shill throwing their name behind it to make a buck. The name has become toxic.
Exactly. I respect some ideas from Libertarianism but I don't call myself that (quite the opposite) and the Tea Party got hijacked by profligates and sullied very quickly. There were some fantastic ideas that evolved, but the TP is synonymous with stupidity and humor as far as I'm concerned at this moment.
quote:
Sidebar: didn't your Prez run on stopping the cartels? Fine job he's done huh?
Well, in his defense (Enrique Pena Nieto is a moron), he has removed several large names from the cartel lists but he's caused a significant problem with Los Zetas who have been really quiet, but they are currently taking over state after state.
The worst part is these missing students.
47~ (4 are confirmed dead) students are thought to have been kidnapped and executed in a town in Guerrero -- by the local government. The Mayor, his wife and the Chief of Police are all missing and thought to be on the run. If you guys can, share with everyone what's going on here to turn the heat up on the investigation.
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-29788886
And that piece of shite isn't my President, President Obama is.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:11 pm to BluegrassBelle
It's mind-blowing to me that the same state that produced Rand Paul also elected McConnell
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:12 pm to BluegrassBelle
quote:
You never know though. I never would've thought people here would've bought into Rand Paul either.
He's every conservative's wet dream for 2016, so he has to have something. I'm curious as to your (and my other bluegrass bros out there) take on him.
quote:
It just makes me sad that we can't find anybody to take him out and I'm not even talking about just on the left side of the aisle either.
It's going to be about impossible for the state party to let anybody but McConnell have it until he retires/dies. A guy with that much clout practically runs the state party anyway. It just is what it is. Conservatives probably don't even like him but they'll hold their nose and vote for him anyway. Just the nature of the beast.
quote:
Grimes grabbing many votes outside of the Democratic party
I know I'm jumping around a bit, but from the outside looking in she seems kind of phony.
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It's an unmitigated shitshow.
I can't imagine. It's been rough here and the race is between Louisiana's answer to John Kerry and an incumbent from an old NOLA political family.
We haven't had a McConnell bloodhound gang yet, but we did get Cassidy giving a child predator smile in an ad. The guy just isn't natural at politikin'.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:19 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
47~ (4 are confirmed dead) students are thought to have been kidnapped and executed in a town in Guerrero -- by the local government. The Mayor, his wife and the Chief of Police are all missing and thought to be on the run. If you guys can, share with everyone what's going on here to turn the heat up on the investigation.
I know the story, but hadn't yet heard if it is confirmed the local authorities did the butchering/kidnapping. It's awful (if true) and the sort of thing the Mexicans should be revolting over. To think we riot over Furgeson...
Not exactly excited at the idea of Los Zetas gaining more and more sway either. I don't know much about the cartels down there, but I know their reputation as a particularly brutal bunch.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:22 pm to Duke
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know the story, but hadn't yet heard if it is confirmed the local authorities did the butchering/kidnapping. It's awful (if true) and the sort of thing the Mexicans should be revolting over. To think we riot over Furgeson...
I told my students the same thing. If 47~ students went missing, or if we even found four dead -- the government would grind to a halt, and it wouldn't move until something was fixed. Mexicans are really, really unpatriotic, but I also feel like we're inching toward revolution.
It's only a matter of time.
quote:
Not exactly excited at the idea of Los Zetas gaining more and more sway either. I don't know much about the cartels down there, but I know their reputation as a particularly brutal bunch.
It's what you would expect from a bunch of Ex-Special Forces Operators running a Cartel.
Edit: and the government most certainly killed those kids. Cartels rarely if ever (I can't remember an instance) go after university students.
This post was edited on 10/29/14 at 5:24 pm
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:23 pm to Duke
quote:
He's every conservative's wet dream for 2016, so he has to have something. I'm curious as to your (and my other bluegrass bros out there) take on him.
Personally, I don't care for him. He's used Kentucky as a stepping stone to a Presidential run without doing much for the state itself IMO. He's like pretty much everybody else while pimping himself as something different. I agree with him on some tenants, but he's too extreme for my tastes in others and I don't see where he'll get anymore done as a result then anyone else who is sitting that far to the left or right (education is a pretty good example for me).
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:27 pm to BluegrassBelle
quote:
Personally, I don't care for him. He's used Kentucky as a stepping stone to a Presidential run without doing much for the state itself IMO. He's like pretty much everybody else while pimping himself as something different. I agree with him on some tenants, but he's too extreme for my tastes in others and I don't see where he'll get anymore done as a result then anyone else who is sitting that far to the left or right (education is a pretty good example for me).
I stopped respecting him after his drone flip flop. That's possibly the worst one I've ever seen.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2013/04/23/rand-paul-shockingly-now-supports-the-use-of-drones-on-us-soil-to-kill-americans-so-what-was-that-filibuster-thing-all-about/
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:28 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
Mexicans are really, really unpatriotic, but I also feel like we're inching toward revolution.
It's only a matter of time.
I hope them all the best (outside of El Tri). Mexico is a country rich in resources and positioned well to take full advantage of the riches globalization promises if they can get their ineffective and corrupt government out of the way. Though you could pretty much say that of any of the emerging third world economies.
quote:
It's what you would expect from a bunch of Ex-Special Forces Operators running a Cartel.
Yikes.
quote:
the government most certainly killed those kids. Cartels rarely if ever (I can't remember an instance) go after university students.
I assumed as much, but I don't like to call something fact this far away and this barely informed. Viva la resistance! There will be punch and pie.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:33 pm to Duke
quote:
I know I'm jumping around a bit, but from the outside looking in she seems kind of phony.
She comes off a bit Palin-esque. In the respect that she's there as a pretty face and not a whole lot of substance. I'd have a lot more respect for her if she just stood her ground on issues instead of spending all of her time pointing out the shitshow we know as McConnell (which isn't hard to do).
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:45 pm to BluegrassBelle
quote:
Personally, I don't care for him. He's used Kentucky as a stepping stone to a Presidential run without doing much for the state itself IMO.
Sounds like our governor.
Your POV along with Straw's article do not give me optimism about him going forward. A breath of fresh air would be nice even if he failed. It's looking more and more as if that air is getting stale.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 5:47 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
I stopped respecting him after his drone flip flop. That's possibly the worst one I've ever seen.
He didn't flip flop he just explained his position. He doesn't think drones should be used for surveillance or used to assassinate someone who is deemed a "terrorist" or something. For example an American citizen is suspected of funneling money to ISIS...we shouldn't be able to just go drone him based on intel like we do overseas. He should be arrested and tried in court.
Paul only stated that if there was an imminent thread i.e an active shooter then drones could be used. I agree with that..it's no different if you use a drone to take down an imminent thread to others or if a cop shoots the person.
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