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How would a major secession event play out today?
Posted on 6/25/15 at 5:47 am
Posted on 6/25/15 at 5:47 am
Talking about Fort Sumter in other threads got me thinking about the dynamics of the first days after the Confederate States declaring their secession and the start of the Civil War. It's really interesting to think about and eventually my train of thought got me thinking about how a similar situation in today's world would unfold.
This is only asking what would happen in the immediate aftermath of the country splitting up, it doesn't matter what led up to that decision.
After the southern slave-holding states announced their intention to secede following the election of Abe Lincoln in 1860, a group of Union soldiers stationed in South Carolina who feared for their own safety immediately decided retreat to Fort Sumter in Charleston Bay. The Union Soldier's occupation of a fort in Confederate territory led directly to the first battle and official start of the Civil War.
The interesting part is that they made this decision on their own volition, independent of input from the U.S. government or any military commander, suggesting that they were taken by surprise. How did that happen?
With modern technology every person in the country would have plenty of warning. Between social media and big brother surveillance there is no keeping something that big a surprise.
With plenty of warning would today's government be able to stomp out a rebellion before it got a foothold? Or would their attempts to stop it only further anger the masses, creating more dissidence and unrest only to speed up the process?
Would a modern day secession even lead to a Civil War or violence, or would the society of today with their weaker mindset just allow secession to happen peacefully?
Assuming a rebellion got to the point of multiple states seceding how does the public react?
Everybody knows it's imminent well in advance thanks to modern communication technology. Advances in transportation also have people spread across the country like they weren't before.
If away from home or if you just don't agree with one side, how soon do you flee for "your side"?
How much of a panic do the roadways become, and is travel between future territories restricted?
What would be the main factor people used to align themselves in a modern Civil War? Geography, politics, race, or religion?
Would people align themselves differently if Civil War was imminent than they would in a peaceful secession?
IMO people have a strong sense of home and family, so in the event of war I think where you're from and where your family is would out weigh anything else.
What happens to the military and the hundreds of bases, forts, and installations around the country? Today's Armed Forces are a melting pot.
How much in-fighting occurs?
Fort Benning is deep in Georgia but filled with soldiers from all over, so how do you take control of bases in your own territory?
Do the soldiers from elsewhere flee for their homes or stay and fight to control the base for their cause?
Does a soldier from Louisiana but stationed in California remain loyal to the military they signed up for, or is your loyalty with your home?
Does a pilot from Cali stationed at Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama try to hop in his plane and fly home with his weapon?
What happens to the military stationed overseas?
Moving on from the secession phase, how would the actual battles of a modern American Civil War take place?
Do average citizens form militias and take to the streets?
Does modern warfare negate that and the most firepower win the day, or does guerrilla warfare and terrorist style attacks prevail?
Do attacks on infrastructure and EMP attacks send us all back to the stone age?
This is only asking what would happen in the immediate aftermath of the country splitting up, it doesn't matter what led up to that decision.
After the southern slave-holding states announced their intention to secede following the election of Abe Lincoln in 1860, a group of Union soldiers stationed in South Carolina who feared for their own safety immediately decided retreat to Fort Sumter in Charleston Bay. The Union Soldier's occupation of a fort in Confederate territory led directly to the first battle and official start of the Civil War.
The interesting part is that they made this decision on their own volition, independent of input from the U.S. government or any military commander, suggesting that they were taken by surprise. How did that happen?
With modern technology every person in the country would have plenty of warning. Between social media and big brother surveillance there is no keeping something that big a surprise.
With plenty of warning would today's government be able to stomp out a rebellion before it got a foothold? Or would their attempts to stop it only further anger the masses, creating more dissidence and unrest only to speed up the process?
Would a modern day secession even lead to a Civil War or violence, or would the society of today with their weaker mindset just allow secession to happen peacefully?
Assuming a rebellion got to the point of multiple states seceding how does the public react?
Everybody knows it's imminent well in advance thanks to modern communication technology. Advances in transportation also have people spread across the country like they weren't before.
If away from home or if you just don't agree with one side, how soon do you flee for "your side"?
How much of a panic do the roadways become, and is travel between future territories restricted?
What would be the main factor people used to align themselves in a modern Civil War? Geography, politics, race, or religion?
Would people align themselves differently if Civil War was imminent than they would in a peaceful secession?
IMO people have a strong sense of home and family, so in the event of war I think where you're from and where your family is would out weigh anything else.
What happens to the military and the hundreds of bases, forts, and installations around the country? Today's Armed Forces are a melting pot.
How much in-fighting occurs?
Fort Benning is deep in Georgia but filled with soldiers from all over, so how do you take control of bases in your own territory?
Do the soldiers from elsewhere flee for their homes or stay and fight to control the base for their cause?
Does a soldier from Louisiana but stationed in California remain loyal to the military they signed up for, or is your loyalty with your home?
Does a pilot from Cali stationed at Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama try to hop in his plane and fly home with his weapon?
What happens to the military stationed overseas?
Moving on from the secession phase, how would the actual battles of a modern American Civil War take place?
Do average citizens form militias and take to the streets?
Does modern warfare negate that and the most firepower win the day, or does guerrilla warfare and terrorist style attacks prevail?
Do attacks on infrastructure and EMP attacks send us all back to the stone age?
7
Posted on 6/25/15 at 6:04 am to BowlJackson
Hopefully it would just be Texas so we can stop having to listen to them say they could do it.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 8:15 am to BowlJackson
You see modern day secession events in today's world all the time.
Some are mostly or entirely peaceful (USSR, Czechoslovakia, very nearly England/Scotland). Some are bitterly violent (Yugolsavia, Yemen).
It is simply impossible to predict how any dissolution will go because any one small thing could totally change the dynamics of the situation.
Some are mostly or entirely peaceful (USSR, Czechoslovakia, very nearly England/Scotland). Some are bitterly violent (Yugolsavia, Yemen).
It is simply impossible to predict how any dissolution will go because any one small thing could totally change the dynamics of the situation.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 11:34 am to BowlJackson
I think the south should be kicked out of the union because of its history
Posted on 6/25/15 at 12:22 pm to JustGetItRight
It wouldn't play out very well. Because the media and left would turn it into race, homosexuality, religion, or any of the other emotion hot button topics that make us all act stupid and lose all rational thought.
It would be made to look as if it were about anything other than what it was really about.
It would be made to look as if it were about anything other than what it was really about.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 12:27 pm to BowlJackson
Any secession movement would be swiftly stamped out. If the rebels in this scenario were able to gain any traction politically speaking the feds would use their economic sway to prevent any foreign intervention then they would quickly destroy the threat.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 12:29 pm to DMagic
If enough of us got to the point of rebellion, politicians would see the votes and money and take up their issues before a single shot is fired.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 12:33 pm to Duke
Agreed just running with the hypothetical a bit
Posted on 6/25/15 at 12:46 pm to heartbreakTiger
Okay but if the south goes then we are taking college football with us. Most of the best athletes are here, and you know why.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 12:52 pm to BowlJackson
quote:
The interesting part is that they made this decision on their own volition, independent of input from the U.S. government or any military commander
Wrong, as usual. Have you read a single book about the Civil War? It's like you're making shite up as you go along.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 12:59 pm to Stonehog
If the southern states seceded today, the North would simply ban southern college football teams from the current playoffs. The rebellion would be over in a matter of days as SEC fans from Fayeteville to Gainesville demanded re-admittance into the Union so their beloved teams would be eligible to play for the national championship.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 1:34 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
You see modern day secession events in today's world all the time.
Some are mostly or entirely peaceful (USSR, Czechoslovakia, very nearly England/Scotland). Some are bitterly violent (Yugolsavia, Yemen).
True. shite going on in Ukraine is crazy. frickers actually killing each other. Same thing went on in Sudan/South Sudan. People in Europe, Middle East, Africa actually kill each other over ethnic differences and they are all the same damn color. Then we bitch over here over words being said or a flag.
Hell even all Asians don't get along. Watched something last night about a North Korea escaped to china, now in South Korea. She spoke Mandarin...her own Korean people thought she was Chinese, told her to go back to where she came from...China
Not going to get into the Chinese, Japanese, feud. Throw in Koreans too.
This post was edited on 6/25/15 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 6/25/15 at 2:24 pm to bayou2003
Yeah but the scenario was specifically for current day USA and the dynamics at play here
Posted on 6/25/15 at 2:58 pm to BowlJackson
quote:
Yeah but the scenario was specifically for current day USA and the dynamics at play here
But you can't even have the discussion about the USA because the current dynamics at play here aren't anywhere divisive enough. Something has to upset the dynamic to the point it triggers real social upheaval.
I know it may fell like it with the 24/7 news cycle and media pundits throwing out words like 'unprecedented' but from the standpoint of tears in our social fabric, where we are now ain't nothing. We've been a whole lot worse at different points in the last 50 years. Heck, in the 1960s, you had multiple Baltimore style riots pretty much every year and the murder rate was double what it is today.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 3:08 pm to BowlJackson
If the country is gonna keep banning any images invoking any reference to the South's history does that mean we can be like the Germans and just deny shite ever even happened?
Posted on 6/25/15 at 4:10 pm to JustGetItRight
Sure seems like the snowball is getting started rolling that way though. Every little incident is getting beaten to death on every form of media possible all over the country. And these racial incidents seem to be happening with more frequency all th time.
I'm 24 and right now racial tension is off the charts compared anything I can remember.
The extremists on the fringe of society are starting to show their arse a whole lot, and that's usually where things like this get started.
I'm 24 and right now racial tension is off the charts compared anything I can remember.
The extremists on the fringe of society are starting to show their arse a whole lot, and that's usually where things like this get started.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 4:34 pm to BowlJackson
quote:
Sure seems like the snowball is getting started rolling that way though. Every little incident is getting beaten to death on every form of media possible all over the country. And these racial incidents seem to be happening with more frequency all th time.
I'm 24 and right now racial tension is off the charts compared anything I can remember.
The extremists on the fringe of society are starting to show their arse a whole lot, and that's usually where things like this get started
Like I said, it has been much worse pretty recently in our history.
Hell, in 1968 the rioting in Chicago was so bad the Democratic National Convention to nominate their presidential candidate had to be protected by the National Guard armed with fixed bayonets.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 5:22 pm to BowlJackson
shite was pretty bad around OJ and Rodney King.
Posted on 6/25/15 at 5:32 pm to BowlJackson
It will happen sooner than later. Tanks will roll in the streets.
Most people forget that more American lives were lost in the Civil War than any war the US has been in -- only one close was WWII.
How can anyone really think that the U.S. will go on forever as it has? Half the population wants socialism
Most people forget that more American lives were lost in the Civil War than any war the US has been in -- only one close was WWII.
How can anyone really think that the U.S. will go on forever as it has? Half the population wants socialism
Posted on 6/25/15 at 6:34 pm to rootisback
It wouldn't be easy. Transplants are found in the north and south on both sides, impossible to eradicate. Typically, you would really have to have the southern public behind all of this, and that simply could never materialize. Not saying it could never happen, but as a nation full of bleeding dispassionate vaginas, it's probably not happening although if Texas voted for secession, I'd embrace it with open arms. This country is going to hell in a handbasket, and people would be more upset if Starbucks went out of business. Truth.
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