Heads up to Arky and Mizzou people - severe weather possible today

First real severe weather threat of the season...





45-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP 30+
KT SWLY 850 MB JET WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WHILE INCREASING DEGREE
OF LOW- AND MID-LVL FORCING SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/BROKEN LINES...SOME OPPORTUNITY
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NE OF
SFC LOW AND NEAR DRY LINE/LOW INTERSECTION. THESE COULD YIELD A
COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND.

AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SEWD THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
RESULTING SQUALL LINE/QLCS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT IN THE
PLNS...WITH A DIMINISHING THOUGH STILL NON-ZERO THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DMGG WIND AND HAIL SWD INTO PARTS OF TX. A WIND THREAT
MAY...HOWEVER...CONTINUE LATER INTO THE NGT EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND
NRN AR INTO THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE
UNDERCUT...AND A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE.