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Adrian Peterson at age 32 vs the top 15 rushers of all time
Posted on 5/24/17 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 5/24/17 at 3:38 pm
I recently got down voted into oblivion for the opinion that Adrian Peterson will likely be a marginal upgrade to Tim Hightower and that he wasn’t even in the top 20 most important players on the roster.
I stand by those comments based on the evidence below.
Below are the stats for the top 15 rushers in NFL history in the season they were 32 and what they did the next year.
1. Emmitt Smith: 1,021 yards. Not bad. He followed up at age 33 with over 900 before falling off completely with Arizona and having a decent final year with 900+ at 35. Note: He never averaged 4 YPC once he reached 32.
2. Walter Payton: 1,333 yards at age 32. The next year he was a shell of that with 533 and was done.
3. Barry Sanders: Retired at 30. N/A
4. Curtis Martin: At 32, had 735 yards at a pretty poor 3.3 YPC and was out of the league the next year.
5. Ladainian Tomlinson: Ran for 280 yards with the Jets in his last season at age 32.
6. Jerome Bettis: Ran for 900+ yards at under 4 YPC. Had 368 the next year and was done.
7. Eric Dickerson: Ran for 729 yards at 3.9 YPC. Followed that up with 91 yards the next year and was done.
8. Frank Gore: Ran for 967 yards at 3.7 YPC. Followed up last year with 1,029 and 3.9 YPC.
9. Tony Dorsett: Ran for 748 yards at 4.1 YPC. Followed up at 33 with 456 at 3.5 YPC. And had a very forgettable year in Denver before he retired.
10. Jim Brown: Retired at 29. N/A
11. Mashall Faulk Ran for 292 yards at age 32 his last year.
12. Edgerrin James: Retired at 31. N/A
13. Marcus Allen: Ran for 301 yards but actually improved over the next four years in KC averaging more than 800 yards per year. Retired at 37.
14. Franco Harris: Ran for 604 yards at over 4 YPC. Followed up at 33 with 1,007 but fell to just 3.6 YPC. Played one more forgettable year at 34 and retired.
15. Thurman Thomas: Ran for 381 yards. Had two more similar years before retiring.
Which leads to No. 16 Peterson. For the top 15 rushers of all time, excluding those who retired before 32, the average yards at age 32 is about 630 yards. Last year Hightower had 548.
If history is accurate, he’ll be a slight upgrade if that and will completely fall off the rails next season.
I stand by those comments based on the evidence below.
Below are the stats for the top 15 rushers in NFL history in the season they were 32 and what they did the next year.
1. Emmitt Smith: 1,021 yards. Not bad. He followed up at age 33 with over 900 before falling off completely with Arizona and having a decent final year with 900+ at 35. Note: He never averaged 4 YPC once he reached 32.
2. Walter Payton: 1,333 yards at age 32. The next year he was a shell of that with 533 and was done.
3. Barry Sanders: Retired at 30. N/A
4. Curtis Martin: At 32, had 735 yards at a pretty poor 3.3 YPC and was out of the league the next year.
5. Ladainian Tomlinson: Ran for 280 yards with the Jets in his last season at age 32.
6. Jerome Bettis: Ran for 900+ yards at under 4 YPC. Had 368 the next year and was done.
7. Eric Dickerson: Ran for 729 yards at 3.9 YPC. Followed that up with 91 yards the next year and was done.
8. Frank Gore: Ran for 967 yards at 3.7 YPC. Followed up last year with 1,029 and 3.9 YPC.
9. Tony Dorsett: Ran for 748 yards at 4.1 YPC. Followed up at 33 with 456 at 3.5 YPC. And had a very forgettable year in Denver before he retired.
10. Jim Brown: Retired at 29. N/A
11. Mashall Faulk Ran for 292 yards at age 32 his last year.
12. Edgerrin James: Retired at 31. N/A
13. Marcus Allen: Ran for 301 yards but actually improved over the next four years in KC averaging more than 800 yards per year. Retired at 37.
14. Franco Harris: Ran for 604 yards at over 4 YPC. Followed up at 33 with 1,007 but fell to just 3.6 YPC. Played one more forgettable year at 34 and retired.
15. Thurman Thomas: Ran for 381 yards. Had two more similar years before retiring.
Which leads to No. 16 Peterson. For the top 15 rushers of all time, excluding those who retired before 32, the average yards at age 32 is about 630 yards. Last year Hightower had 548.
If history is accurate, he’ll be a slight upgrade if that and will completely fall off the rails next season.
12
Posted on 5/24/17 at 3:43 pm to ghost2most
Nuh uh 
Posted on 5/24/17 at 3:43 pm to ghost2most
Very interesting. At number 16 already, imagine if he was on a more balanced attack At least half of the years in the league.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 3:44 pm to ghost2most
As a physical specimen he is rivaled by one or maybe two guys on that list. He's also had a couple of years of minimal wear and tear the last few years. Not many of those guys were in the top passing offenses in the NFL as well.
It wouldn't shock me if he picked up another injury but I think his legs are going to be more like a 29/30 year old simply because of his freakishness. I think he'll have several runs of 7-10 yards that may have been 20+ yards a few years ago.
It wouldn't shock me if he picked up another injury but I think his legs are going to be more like a 29/30 year old simply because of his freakishness. I think he'll have several runs of 7-10 yards that may have been 20+ yards a few years ago.
This post was edited on 5/24/17 at 3:45 pm
Posted on 5/24/17 at 3:56 pm to St Augustine
quote:
As a physical specimen he is rivaled by one or maybe two guys on that list. He's also had a couple of years of minimal wear and tear the last few years. Not many of those guys were in the top passing offenses in the NFL as well.
It wouldn't shock me if he picked up another injury but I think his legs are going to be more like a 29/30 year old simply because of his freakishness. I think he'll have several runs of 7-10 yards that may have been 20+ yards a few years ago.
Yeah that's the argument for him. I just don't buy it. People said the same stuff about Stephen Jackson and how shitty the Rams are. Now that he's with ATL he'll light it up. He's a physical freak, etc. etc. He busted hard.
Coming off a leg injury that forced you to miss most of the season does not exactly equal fresh legs in my eyes.
Hey,I hope he does great but people are just being wowed by a name. It happens every year with old FA RBs.
Jones-Drew was hyped when he went to the Raiders. Fail.
LT was pretty much a bust with the Jets.
Eddie George with the Cowboys...
Fred Taylor with NE
Shaun Alexander with the Redskins
Willis McGahee with Cleveland
There are just way too many examples of 30+ "name" RBs going to a new team with high expectations that flop hard.
I'm really hard pressed to find one that worked out well. Marcus Allen did. Thomas Jones had a couple of decent years with KC.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 4:23 pm to ghost2most
quote:
Which leads to No. 16 Peterson.
He's 26th in carries, though.
Your list entails guys who played in an era where they had to be the bellcow at an advanced age. In today's NFL, Peterson isnt getting 300 carries. It' almost an apple to oranges comparison
And then you have these guys, who are you're top 5 rush attempts guys in NFL history.
quote:
1. Emmitt Smith
quote:
2. Walter Payton:
quote:
4. Curtis Martin
quote:
6. Jerome Bettis
quote:
5. Ladainian Tomlinson
these round out the top 10 in NFL carries
quote:
3. Barry Sander
quote:
7. Eric Dickerson
quote:
12.Edgerrin James:
quote:
13.Marcus Allen
quote:
8. Frank Gore
By comparison, Emmitt Smith has 2k more carries than Peterson. His closest contemporary, Frank Gore, has 500 more carries, that's 2 seasons worth.
Peterson's 32 isnt these guys 32.
He doesnt have to carry the ball 250+ times.
He's running behind a road grating OL.
He's playing in an advance passing offense conducive to successful run game.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 4:29 pm to ghost2most
Your stats are great and all, but you're talking about a player that tore both ACL and MCL and rushed for 2000 yards 10 months later. He's a different beast.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 4:30 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
He's running behind a road grating OL.
We shall see about that.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 4:31 pm to ghost2most
quote:
Hey,I hope he does great but people are just being wowed by a name. It happens every year with old FA RBs.
Jones-Drew was hyped when he went to the Raiders. Fail.
LT was pretty much a bust with the Jets.
Eddie George with the Cowboys...
Fred Taylor with NE
Shaun Alexander with the Redskins
Willis McGahee with Cleveland
There are just way too many examples of 30+ "name" RBs going to a new team with high expectations that flop hard.
I'm really hard pressed to find one that worked out well. Marcus Allen did. Thomas Jones had a couple of decent years with KC.
Again which of these guys went to a 5k passing offense.
And comparing fatass Steven Jackson to Peterson is laughable.
This thread just reeks of someone trying to push a prediction in the hopes of trying to revisit it later proving they are correct.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 4:34 pm to ghost2most
quote:
There are just way too many examples of 30+ "name" RBs going to a new team with high expectations that flop hard.
I'm really hard pressed to find one that worked out well.
Life after 30 isn't a death sentence. These guys didnt have quite the heavy workload going into their 30s and enjoyed success
Ricky Williams
Tiki Barber
Ricky Watters
Thomas Jones (closest physically to AP)
Garrison Heart
Fred Taylor
Mike Anderson
Corey Dillon
Peterson is 32 but has missed two seasons. His mileage is exaggerated
Posted on 5/24/17 at 4:44 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
He's 26th in carries
Bingo. More important than age is the amount of carries a RB has had.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 4:49 pm to ghost2most
Lmao! You're acting like we signed Adrian Peterson to this $60 million dollar contract. For the price, this is a fantastic signing and Sean Payton will know how to get him involved. He isn't here to tote the ball 300 times, just punish defenses and make them respect the play action.
Shut the hell up.
Shut the hell up.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 5:01 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:
We shall see about that.
what dont you like?
As a team we went over 4 yards a pop last year
Add Armstead, last time we saw him healthy he graded out as a top 3 tackle
Warford graded top 15 in run blocking last season
Ramcyk had the highest run block grade in the draft
Peat settles in at guard, his highest marks came in the run game
Streif has graded near the top in run blocking the last few years and as a top tackle overall
Unger was better in pass game but he wont kill you there.
Injuries aside, this will be a nice unit in the run game
Posted on 5/24/17 at 6:56 pm to ghost2most
My obligatory GOATs:
Barry Sanders: Retired at 30. N/A
Jim Brown: Retired at 29. N/A
My take on AD and Saints is cautiously optimistic. The age stats are compelling, but this isn't news. If AD can even fill Bell role from 2009, 172-654-5 - he's a huge compliment to Ingram and Kamara. If AD still has some HOF wheels, it's an added bonus.
Barry Sanders: Retired at 30. N/A
Jim Brown: Retired at 29. N/A
My take on AD and Saints is cautiously optimistic. The age stats are compelling, but this isn't news. If AD can even fill Bell role from 2009, 172-654-5 - he's a huge compliment to Ingram and Kamara. If AD still has some HOF wheels, it's an added bonus.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 7:44 pm to drizztiger
quote:
If AD can even fill Bell role from 2009, 172-654-5 - he's a huge compliment to Ingram and Kamara. If AD still has some HOF wheels, it's an added bonus.
Agreed. I just feel some on here are expecting a little too much.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 7:55 pm to 1BamaRTR
I don't think I've seen anyone expect 1k+ from him. It seems like most expect him to be a better version of what Hightower was last season, which seems reasonable to me.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 8:01 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
Peterson is 32 but has missed two seasons. His mileage is exaggerated
Not to say he is done because I think he can at least be 75% of 2015 AD physically, but major injuries sap away physical talent/years from your career also.
I guess it's more of a question of how healthy he comes back from last year's injuries. Again I think he can be at least 75% of what he was in 2015, which is still better than most backs in the league (at least top 20).
This post was edited on 5/24/17 at 8:21 pm
Posted on 5/24/17 at 8:05 pm to CocoLoco
Bell was 3.8ypc in 2009, I would hope AD betters that. I think 175-735-6 would be a baseline for reasonable expectations as complimentary to Ingram, with Kamara and Ingram sharing the bulk of RB recs.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 8:07 pm to CocoLoco
Some think he's going to start over Ingram who had a 1K last year. Of course that doesn't mean they think he's going to hit 1k but what I meant is they completely expect him to be a top 15 RB.
Posted on 5/24/17 at 8:25 pm to 1BamaRTR
quote:Nah, AD will play his role. Hope he's still got it. Saints are a complimentary backfield. Kamara's progress could be the difference maker.
Some think he's going to start over Ingram who had a 1K last year. Of course that doesn't mean they think he's going to hit 1k but what I meant is they completely expect him to be a top 15 RB.
This post was edited on 5/24/17 at 8:26 pm
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