Recruiting at UF since 2003

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Ok, so earlier today Thewild1 posted and asked me the following: 
“So what is your bottom line Gatorbill? Do you not feel Mac can win a natty ship here? If so, why? … Please explain. Lastly, what is your litmus test for improved recruiting? Please explain.”
friendly.

With that out of the way…. Page 1 is a 15-year statistical analysis of UF football recruiting. It is broken down into 18 categories that evaluate each Gator class (and therefore coach) since 2002. Below the table of information that lies at the top of the spreadsheet, I attached charts to give you a visual representation of the same data. I think it makes it easier to digest visually, but like I said, don’t expect much. Anyway, here are some important facts we can ascertain about Gator recruiting from that page:

DOWNLOAD THE SPREADSHEET HERE:LINK

1) In attempting to make an apples-to-apples comparison of Mcelwain with one of his predecessors, Meyer seems to be the best choice. Both men took over for coaches that had recently been fired from UF. Both had proven track records as head coaches at mid-level western programs. Both men had exactly one regime of separation from a legend at the school. Both had weak first classes that were among the worst I reviewed. Meyer signed only 17 players in 2005, with a paltry 6 bluechippers. Ten years later, Mcelwain’s first class included 21 players, but only 5 bluechips. The difference is in what followed. In 2006, Meyer signed a top 3 class and raised the bluechip % from 35% to 75% for his bump year effort. Mcelwain on the other hand, followed up his historically poor-rated first effort with a bump class that ranked on # 12 nationally and 6th in the SEC. He also only moderately raised the blue chip % from 24% in 2015 (the worst of the millennium), to 36% in 2016.

2) Speaking of “worst”, of the 18 categories I identified, Mcelwain’s classes took the worst spot in 14 of them. The four that his classes didn’t account for were class size, average rating (which may be off because the 2002 is based on incomplete data), # of in-state recruits signed, and the attached percentage of in-state recruits signed. All other bottom finishes since Spurrier belong to Mac.

3) This is no shocker, but the four-year period of 2013-2016 has amassed the largest number of three stars (98) and fewest number of five stars (5) as compared to any other four-year period since Spurrier. Two of those five-stars (Hargreaves and Taylor) left after last season and a third (Tabor) will leave this year. At that point, Martez Ivey and CeCe Jefferson will be the last 5-stars on the roster, and at least one of those is likely to leave next year. That has to be a historic low.

4) The rough average of Mcelwain’s national finishes (21st, 12th, and current 14th) equate to about 15th best in the country over three years. In the SEC, his 7th, 10th, and current 6th place equates to an average of 7th (and I’m rounding in favor of Mac in both cases). Additionally, when ranked against the chief rivals (FSU, UGA, and UT), the past four years of recruiting have seen the Gators ranked 4th, 4th, 3rd, and 4th. This year’s class obviously has potential to positively impact each of the things mentioned in this item, but as of now the class is actually projected to fall in its ranking, even if a few of the bigger targets are landed.

5).) Although I’ll address the championship implications of this more in-depth later, the primary shortcoming that I can see with Mac’s recruiting is the number of top 250 players he is signing. Including 2017, he has only managed 14 over three years. Even WITH his historically bad performance, the average number signed in all UF classes reviewed is 11.19. Many of them had more than 14 in one year. To me, this is a staggering drop off and telling of how bad this roster could soon be. Unless he hits on sleepers at a high rate and finishes this class off in a huge way, the roster is going to be much, much less talented than it has been since I’ve been watching Gator football. This trend is consistent for Gator recruiting in and out of state. The ratio is very similar for the top 40 players in Florida, which has traditionally been close to the amount of 4 and 5 star recruits in state each year.


, page 2 of the spreadsheet details the 4 preceding recruiting classes of each SEC champion since the Gators won in 2006. That’s 10 championship teams and 40 classes worth of data. After looking it over, here’s what jumps out at me so far:

1) With the exception of Auburn’s 2010 title year (more on that later), every single program has had at least one top-5 recruiting class in the 4-year cycle leading up to their title runs. The aforementioned outlier notwithstanding, all teams actually had multiple top-5 recruiting finishes, or in one case (LSU 2011) had a single # 1 national class and multiple top 10’s to go with it. Again, Mac's classes aren't even close to this level.

2) When looking at the number of top 100 and top 250 recruits, you see that championship teams have signed an average total of 26.4 top-100 players and 50.4 top-250 players from their 4-year pre-title run classes. Even when you take out Alabama’s crazy 2014 and 2015 4-year hauls, those numbers sit at 21.5 top-100 and 46.75 top 250 players per championship team… and these are skewed negatively because they include the outlier of Auburn. If Florida were to win the SEC this year, they would do so with a total of 16 top-100 players and 32 top-250 players on their current roster. As bad as this is, if they don’t manage to sign a top 100 player in 2017 (which is at best 50/50 at this point), then they will walk in to next season with only 10 top-100 players and 23 
top-250 players. That is literally almost exactly half of what recent champions have won with.



4) No team has won a recent SEC championship if they did not have at least one class over the 40% mark for the percentage of its class being comprised of top 250 recruits. 2013 featured a UF class where this ratio hit 50%. This is the last season where those players will be around in force, and instead the roster will be comprised of groups that hit percentages of 38%, 14%, 24%, and 31%. This is a bit skewed since it is a ratio and doesn’t account for total numbers, but the overall class sizes are comparable enough to minimize the impact. This is a bad sign.

6) Oh, and I just added one more blurb on the snapshot spreadsheet as a “stars debate” commentary. Since 2002, Florida has signed a total of 22 non-kicker football recruits who went on to be first-team AP All-SEC (post-season). Of those, 11 were 5-star recruits, 9 were 4-star recruits, and only 2 were 3-star recruits. Consider that for a moment and what the roster will look like in 2017. Ouch.

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