Kentucky Analysis

UK Defense vs UF Offense:

UK Rush Defense = 5.46 YPC allowed, 5 TD, 221 YPG
UF Rush Offense = 4.94 YPC, 5 TD, 195 YPG

UK Pass Eff Defense = 115.35 Eff rating, 1 TD, 3 INT, 43-68(63.2%), 227 YPGA
UF Pass Eff Offense = 179.80 Eff rating, 6 TD, 1 INT, 46-63(73%), 294.5 YPG

UK Key Defensive Players:

Josh Forest, LB, Sr., 6’3, 255 – 22 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 Sack, 4 PBU, 1 INT
Khalid Henderson, LB, Sr., 6’1, 235 – 20 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 Sack
· (Backup to Ryan Flannigan, who should be able to play)
Melvin Lewis, DL, Sr., 6’4, 332 – 10 Tackles, 2 TFL, 1 Sack
AJ Stamps, S, Sr., 6,0, 205 – 13 tackles, 2 PBU
Chris Westry, CB, Fr., 6’4, 185 – 6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 Sack, 1 PBU, 1 INT

Wild Card – Jason Hatcher returning from suspension – Jabari Johnson still starting at LB on the depth chart for Florida

Defensive Summary:

Kentucky has really been a bipolar team so far this year. They have been rock solid in the first half of games, being disruptive on defense, and jumping on people early, only giving up 2 first half TDs, one of which was on a short field against South Carolina (INT returned to the UK 1), their only points of the first half.

That being said, they have been weak in the second half of games, and they have been terrible against the run all season. They gave up 247 yards rushing to UL Lafayette and gave up 195 yards rushing to South Carolina.

Their pass defense looks solid right now, but that is only because they have played extremely weak competition. In 4 combined games. ULL and USCe have thrown only 2 TD to 3 INT and both rank in the bottom quartile of the country in pass efficiency. UF has, by far, the most balanced offense they have seen at this point and easily the best passing offense. UF should have room to make plays in the passing game, and although UK has been disruptive at times early in games, their pass rush is not as good as it was last year. I imagine, given UF’s experience on the OL, that UK will try to blitz early and often to disrupt the UF QBs, because sitting in coverage is not something they will want to do.

The key for Florida in this game will be weathering the early storm from the UK defense, which has a tendency to start on fire, and then weaken as the game moves along. They have made big plays late though to win games – so if UF is trying to come from behind late, which is a definite possibility, watch out for UK to make a late play to save it.

UK Offense vs UF Defense:

UF Rush Defense = 1.16 YPC allowed, 1 TD, 25.5 YPG
UK Rush Offense = 6.02 YPC, 5 TD, 192.5 YPG

UF Pass Eff Defense = 116.88 Eff rating, 4 TD, 2 INT, 52-87(59.7%), 241 YPGA
UK Pass Eff Offense = 127.96 Eff rating, 3 TD, 2 INT, 37-63(58.7%), 224.5 YPG

UK Key Offensive Players:

Patrick Towles, QB, So., 6’5, 240 - 37-63, 58.7%, 3 TD, 2 INT, 224.5 YPG
Stanley Williams, RB, So. 5’9, 196 – 24 carries, 242 yards, 1 TD, 10.08 YPC, 121 YPG, 4 Rec, 23 yards
Jojo Kemp, RB, Jr., 5’10, 200 - 16 carries, 112 yards, 1 TD, 7 YPC, 56 YPG, 3 rec, 3 yards
Garret Johnson, WR, So. 5’11, 182 – 9 receptions, 124 yards, 1 TD
Dorian Baker, WR, So. 6’3, 208 – 7 receptions, 101 yads

(Note, I’d list Mike Horton, but he may be injured. He has 2 TD on the year)

Offensive Summary:

The Kentucky offense has been extremely strong in the first half of games. No doubt about it. They have scored 48 of their 66 points in the first half of games. They have a balanced attack, but things obviously work better for this team when the running game is gaining chunks of yards. When they do that they are tough to stop. That is the game pretty much, because although Towles has moments of brilliance at QB, he is very inconsistent.

If Florida can slow down the big play running game, that will force Towles to win the game with his arm, and against the Florida pass defense, that is a favorable match up, despite the disaster in the 2nd half last year.

Once again though, the key for the Florida defense will be to weather the early storm, as Kentucky and Towles both start very hot.

Stats showing UK’s hot starts:

First Half UK Scoring – 48 points
Second Half UK Scoring – 18 points

First Half Opponent Scoring – 14
Second Half Opponent Scoring – 41

Patrick Towles 1st half stats – 23-36, 378 yards, 10.5 YPA, 2 TD, 1 INT, 164.87 QB rating
Patric Towles 2nd half stats – 14-27, 71 yards, 2.63 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 78.76 QB rating

Kentucky 1st half rushing stats – 39 carries, 230 yards, 4 TD,
Kentucky 2nd half rushing stats – 27 carries, 155 yards, 1 TD

Kentucky 1st half offense – 75 plays, 608 yards, 5 TD, 8.10 YPP
Kentucky 2nd half offense – 54 plays, 226 yards, 2 TD, 4.18 YPP

Additional note:

Red zone play calling for UK – 18 runs, 4 TD, 5-10 passing, 1 TD – UK does not like to have Towles throw in the red zone, if they can help it, they will run until they score. To beat UK, you must make them throw the ball.

Final thoughts:

In two games, UK has started extremely strong, jumping on opponents early and leading BIG at the half, and have managed to just barely hold on for dear life in the 2nd half. If UF is going to win this game, they will have to weather the early storm that will most certainly come in the first half at Lexington in what should be an electric environment in primetime (think TAMU 2012). UF needs to keep the game within 7-10 points.

If UF can do that, based on what we have seen so far this year, UF should win the game, barring a late 4th quarter defensive collapse like last week.