Top Heavy SEC

I have been trying to play out a situation where all there teams make the playoffs. AU wins out. They are in. UA would have one loss, they would more than likely be in. If UGA had two L's, but both to AU, wonder if they could make it.

Make no mistake, the SEC has always been top heavy. It's just that the middle-ish tier is usually pretty solid. This year, and arguably last, that hasn't been the case.

It usually goes contenders, upper middle, lower middle, doormats. This year it is contender, a few good upper middle, trash. It's football so pretty much any team *could* win any game, but the bottom 2/3 of the league is just not particularly good.

So you're saying the SEC is curvy?

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I have been trying to play out a situation where all there teams make the playoffs. AU wins out. They are in. UA would have one loss, they would more than likely be in. If UGA had two L's, but both to AU, wonder if they could make it.

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No scenario where all 3 go. At. All.

Only chance for 2 would likely be if Bama somehow misses SECCG... neither UGA nor Auburn would be given the benefit of the doubt over another conference winner with the same number of losses. Assuming UGA/Auburn win out up until that matchup (and afterwards), if Auburn were to win, then Auburn beat Bama, you'd have three 1 loss teams with UGA and Auburn going to the SECCG. The winner of that game goes... if Bama is somehow left out of the CG, then they become the at large candidate with the highest likelihood of jumping over any bad looking conference champions from elsewhere...

Of course, style of play in those matchups will matter... blowouts can hurt, tight games give more credit to the losing team... etc. But looking at it that way, it's the only chance I see for 2 SEC teams, and it's still a slim possibility.

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That gap between the #1 and #4 teams in the SEC is gigantic.

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True, but part of that is just how insanely high Alabama is in that metric. The #2 team is 3.6 behind Bama, and the #3 team is 6.2 behind Bama. Put Alabama in the Big 12 in place of Oklahoma, for example, and there's a bigger gap while the SEC drops to 13.8 points.

Put Alabama in place of any of the other #1 teams from any conference, and that gap will then be the largest gap. Trade OSU for Alabama and the two conferences are close - any other trade, and it's not really close then either.

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The thing that is the most bs about it is thinking that State is #4 in the SEC.

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Yeah, should be Florida. They're the 4th team if you look at polls.

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No scenario where all 3 go. At. All.

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It's very unlikely... probably impossible. But technically it *could* happen.

Here's what would have to happen:

*Alabama would have to go 11-1 with the loss being to Auburn.

*Auburn would have to go 10-2, losing to Georgia (along with the current loss to Clemson)... but then turn around and upon beating Alabama in the Iron Bowl, also beat Georgia in the rematch in Atlanta.

*Georgia would have to go 12-0 in the regular season, but lose to Auburn in Atlanta.

This would produce the following resumes in the SEC:

1. Auburn: 11-2 SEC Champions, wins over both Georgia and Alabama... but losses to Georgia and CLemson

2. Georgia: 12-1, win over Auburn in Auburn

3. Alabama: 11-1, only loss at Auburn


In addition, this would have to happen nationally:

1. Clemson would have to win out and sit at 13-0
2. No other conference could produce and undefeated Champion.... everyone else would have to have at least one loss.
3. Ohio State would need a second loss somewhere... but would also need to win the BIG TEN.
4. Someone other than Oklahoma would need to win the BIG 12... most likely TCU.
5. Notre Dame needs to run the table and finish 11-1

If all of this happens, this is how it would shake out:

PLAYOFF PECKING ORDER:
1. Clemson: 13-0. ACC Champions. Win over Auburn
2. Auburn: 11-2. SEC Champions. Losses to Clemson and Georgia, but wins over Alabama and Georgia
3. Georgia: 12-1. Two road wins over Auburn and Notre Dame, but also a loss to Auburn.
4. Alabama: 11-1. Beat up everyone they played, but lost to Auburn in Auburn

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5. Notre Dame: 11-1 Loss at home to Georgia. Biggest win is USC in South Bend
6. TCU: 11-1. BIG 12 Champions. Wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State... but hypothetical loss to Texas
7. Oklahoma: 10-2. Win over Ohio State. But losses to TCU and Oklahoma State.
8. Ohio State: 11-2. BIG 10 Champions. Losses to Oklahoma and Michigan... Wins over Penn State and Wisconsin (in BIG 10 CG)
9. Penn State: 11-1. Loss to Ohio State. Win over Michigan
10. USC: 11-2. PAC 12 Champs. Losses to Notre Dame and Washington State. Win over Washington in PAC 12 Title Game
11. Oklahoma State: 10-2. Win over Oklahoma; but losses to TCU and Kansas State
11. Washington: 12-1. Loss to USC. No big wins
12. Michigan: 10-2. Losses to Penn State and one random (like Maryland or Indiana). Wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin
13. Wisconsin: 11-2. Losses to Michigan and Ohio State, but zero wins over ranked teams
14. Washington State: 10-2. Win over USC, but losses to Oregon and Washington.

At this point, the real argument would be Bama vs. Notre Dame. They'd have the same record... each with a loss to Georgia or Auburn. But Bama's would have been in Auburn while Notre Dame's would have been at home in South Bend. THe fact that they are Alabama and they have destroyed everyone would give Bama the 4th place nod.