Started By
Message
Let's talk realistic expectations......
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:09 am
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:09 am
We are all headed into a new season, everybody is tied for 1st place - yay! But we're already talking about who is on the hot seat for this year? Of course! That being said, some expectations are higher than I think what is realistic for a lot of these programs. Over the past 10 years, a lot of coaches have been held in high regard for putting out really good teams year in and year out. The key question though - what is realistic for your team in a league with all of these all-star coaches with strong coaching skills, recruiting skills, and above all else, a lot of chest!
I think we can all agree that over the past five years, Saban is the top coach. Without a doubt, Alabama should finish each season with 1 loss or less given their recruiting and coaching record. Les Miles is also an all-star, and should always finish with 2 losses or less given the rest of the riff raff around the league.
Here's the thing, I see a lot of posters expecting their teams to consistently compete on this level. How is this possible?
Average # of SEC teams in conference wins over the past 5 years:
Undefeated - 1 per year, or in the top 8% of all teams
7 Wins / 1 Loss - 1 per year, or in the top 13% of all teams
6 wins / 2 loss - 2 teams per year, or in the top 27% of all teams
5 wins / 3 loss - 1 team per year, or in the top 37% of all teams
4 wins / 4 losses - 2 teams per year, basically in the top 50%
With a star studded cast of coaches not named Miles or Saban that have actually done something such as:
- Spurrier
- Richt
How can y'all expect to consistently compete and have your coach on the hot seat because he isn't named Saban, Miles, Spurrier, or Richt? Of course everybody has a down year here and there, and these 4 teams will never finish in the top 4 order, that's why we play the games. But when I look at the list of remaining coaches:
Chizik - Definately a strong coach, but I would have a hard time saying that every year he should beat the above 4. I have a hard time saying that he should always go .500 against that list.
Verdict: should always be 4 wins or better, but not more than 6 wins.
John L Smith - Gets a bad rep, but he shouldn't have been doing blitzes with 0 safety help against brady quinn with his cornerbacks foating on dingies, nor should he have had drew stanton running the option in a monsoon. Would not take him over the other 4 coaches.
verdict: Should not have any expectation of ever being anything other than the 5th best team in the SEC. It could happen, and it's realistic that it could happen, but you should fire the guy for not being in the top 4 is my point.
Hugh Freeze: don't know anything about this guy, but figure 5 SEC wins is his ceiling.
The grinder: Mullen's SEC ceiling is 6 wins I figure.
Muschamp: Ceiling is 5 wins. He's done nothing but assemble an all-star coordinator cast that has done nothing in college.
Dooley: Ceiling is 5 wins with the atrocity that Lane left him.
Franklin / Philips: Will either school ever make an honest effort to invest in a coach? If not, then why fire them - Ceiling is 4 wins anyways.
Sumlin / Mizzou guy: Y'all are about to get your asses kicked. Welcome to the SEC, your hazing begins in a few weeks.
I think we can all agree that over the past five years, Saban is the top coach. Without a doubt, Alabama should finish each season with 1 loss or less given their recruiting and coaching record. Les Miles is also an all-star, and should always finish with 2 losses or less given the rest of the riff raff around the league.
Here's the thing, I see a lot of posters expecting their teams to consistently compete on this level. How is this possible?
Average # of SEC teams in conference wins over the past 5 years:
Undefeated - 1 per year, or in the top 8% of all teams
7 Wins / 1 Loss - 1 per year, or in the top 13% of all teams
6 wins / 2 loss - 2 teams per year, or in the top 27% of all teams
5 wins / 3 loss - 1 team per year, or in the top 37% of all teams
4 wins / 4 losses - 2 teams per year, basically in the top 50%
With a star studded cast of coaches not named Miles or Saban that have actually done something such as:
- Spurrier
- Richt
How can y'all expect to consistently compete and have your coach on the hot seat because he isn't named Saban, Miles, Spurrier, or Richt? Of course everybody has a down year here and there, and these 4 teams will never finish in the top 4 order, that's why we play the games. But when I look at the list of remaining coaches:
Chizik - Definately a strong coach, but I would have a hard time saying that every year he should beat the above 4. I have a hard time saying that he should always go .500 against that list.
Verdict: should always be 4 wins or better, but not more than 6 wins.
John L Smith - Gets a bad rep, but he shouldn't have been doing blitzes with 0 safety help against brady quinn with his cornerbacks foating on dingies, nor should he have had drew stanton running the option in a monsoon. Would not take him over the other 4 coaches.
verdict: Should not have any expectation of ever being anything other than the 5th best team in the SEC. It could happen, and it's realistic that it could happen, but you should fire the guy for not being in the top 4 is my point.
Hugh Freeze: don't know anything about this guy, but figure 5 SEC wins is his ceiling.
The grinder: Mullen's SEC ceiling is 6 wins I figure.
Muschamp: Ceiling is 5 wins. He's done nothing but assemble an all-star coordinator cast that has done nothing in college.
Dooley: Ceiling is 5 wins with the atrocity that Lane left him.
Franklin / Philips: Will either school ever make an honest effort to invest in a coach? If not, then why fire them - Ceiling is 4 wins anyways.
Sumlin / Mizzou guy: Y'all are about to get your asses kicked. Welcome to the SEC, your hazing begins in a few weeks.
9
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:10 am to ironsides
That's a lot of shite to read
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:15 am to ironsides
quote:
John L Smith - Gets a bad rep, but he shouldn't have been doing blitzes with 0 safety help against brady quinn with his cornerbacks foating on dingies, nor should he have had drew stanton running the option in a monsoon
Well he won't be calling any plays on game day and won't be here past his contract date
quote:
Would not take him over the other 4 coaches
Who would?
EDIT: It's a bit stupid to make a long-term verdict on a coach that in all likelihood will not be here after this season. I agree with most of your post though
This post was edited on 8/9/12 at 10:18 am
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:15 am to ironsides
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:17 am to volfan30
What will happen on the rant in a few weeks when the "hazers" become the "hazed".
Y'all about to get a wake up call. It's coming.
Y'all about to get a wake up call. It's coming.
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:17 am to ironsides
quote:
Sumlin / Mizzou guy: Y'all are about to get your asses kicked. Welcome to the SEC, your hazing begins in a few weeks.
Nice original thought there. Haven't heard anyone say this yet.
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:18 am to mizzoukills
From who exactly?
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:18 am to cheezag03
quote:
Nice original thought there. Haven't heard anyone say this yet
You know it's true
After two or three years it might not be but the first season will be brutal
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:20 am to ironsides
What has Spurrier done since the mid 90's?
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:28 am to Gladius Veritas
quote:
It's a bit stupid to make a long-term verdict on a coach that in all likelihood will not be here after this season.
Yeah that was kind of my point - every year we talk about who's on the hot seat before the first freakin game is even played, and a lot of "if coach X doesn't have a 75% winning percentage in the SEC this year he's GONE"
How realistic is that??
I think John L Smith is a good coach, I think he'd still be at Michigan State if that radio dude hadn't slaughtered him and / or if he won that 1 game against Notre Dame.
It's just tough to find an elite coach that is an elite recruiter. So the respective schools go around and they pay out these gagillion dollar contracts for guys that aren't proven and it makes the expectations that much higher.
Seriously? Hugh Freeze is making $2.6m? Ole Miss is going to be paying $1m a year for each SEC win!
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:36 am to mizzoukills
quote:
What will happen on the rant in a few weeks when the "hazers" become the "hazed".
Y'all about to get a wake up call. It's coming.
Which games do you have Mizzou winning?
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:40 am to ironsides
Chizik is 3-0 against Spurrier, including our shitastic team last year.
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:42 am to ironsides
quote:
Franklin / Philips: Will either school ever make an honest effort to invest in a coach? If not, then why fire them - Ceiling is 4 wins anyways.
Joker will be fired after this year
But Franklin is a stud and he is getting Vandy to invest in facilities upgrades.
quote:
Chizik - Definately a strong coach, but I would have a hard time saying that every year he should beat the above 4. I have a hard time saying that he should always go .500 against that list.
If you have forgotten Chizik has won a NC and Richt has not
quote:
Muschamp: Ceiling is 5 wins
No it isn't. Ron Zook won 6 games in conference at UF twice, and Muschamp is twice the Coach as zooker.
Your entire post was geared towards sucking off Saban and Lester. Should have prefaced the post with that fact.
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:47 am to ironsides
so what's your point? your real point.
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:49 am to mizzoukills
quote:
Y'all about to get a wake up call. It's coming.
not sure if serious. You will win a few games, as you are in the easier division...you still gonna get skull fricked by bama....and the days of you going 10-2 and a bcs game are LONG OVER. A great year for you now will be 8-4.
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:50 am to schlow mo
quote:
If you have forgotten Chizik has won a NC and Richt has not
fwiw....state would have won the NC had cam gone to state...that is how much of a difference he made. Other than that year, Chiz has never done shite...and that really wasn't BECAUSE OF HIM that Auburn won it.
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:51 am to schlow mo
quote:
Muschamp: Ceiling is 5 wins
it is higher...florida can get the talent. They will very possibly win 5 SEC games this year..if not more.
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:51 am to VC
quote:
fwiw....state would have won the NC had cam gone to state...that is how much of a difference he made. Other than that year, Chiz has never done shite...and that really wasn't BECAUSE OF HIM that Auburn won it.
thats a fact, jack.
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:52 am to VC
quote:
it is higher...florida can get the talent. They will very possibly win 5 SEC games this year..if not more.
Florida has talent and a decent coaching staff. Injuries killed UF last year but if they can stay healthy they will be a good team.
Posted on 8/9/12 at 10:53 am to VC
quote:
state would have won the NC had cam gone to state
Yyyyyeah, no...
Auburn had much better pieces at other positions than State as well.
Page 1 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News