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re: April jobs number 175k, well below 240k estimates. Markets rally

Posted on 5/7/24 at 4:34 pm to
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35242 posts
Posted on 5/7/24 at 4:34 pm to
quote:

LOL, the aforementioned job growth has been in low paid part time jobs. Mostly filled by illegals. We’ve been losing full time jobs for a while now.
Illegals filling those jobs that show up in these reports is just nonsense, even if they are filling jobs unreported.

However, there is nothing inherently wrong with part-time jobs; the reasons matter. If one only needs or wants a part time job, then getting a part time job is good. If one needs or wants a full time job, then only getting a part time job is not so good.

Regardless, given that prime-age employment is near record highs, but boomers finally started to retire post-pandemic, which we knew would eventually come, I would expect part time employment to increase, as those retirees decide to work but on a part time base.

As for wages though. The lower wage jobs have had by far the most significant increase in wages over the last couple years, likely taking advantage of the tight labor market.

I just don’t understand this incessant need to find every little reason why something is bad whenever an economic report is released. If it’s a really good report, then y’all will find some obscure, highly volatile metric, that nobody has focused on before, even when the metric was worse in previous administrations to use as some sort of canary in the coal mine for a bad economic situation.

And when the reports aren’t great, then understandably focus on actual important metrics, but you ignore that the same obscure and volatile metric that focused on to downplay a good report, is often actually positive when it’s not a great report. Canary in the coal mine one month; completely ignored the next.
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
7846 posts
Posted on 5/7/24 at 5:40 pm to
quote:

I just don’t understand this incessant need to find every little reason why something is bad whenever an economic report is released. If it’s a really good report, then y’all will find some obscure, highly volatile metric, that nobody has focused on before, even when the metric was worse in previous administrations to use as some sort of canary in the coal mine for a bad economic situation.


Meh, I think you have it backwards. Too many people just look at the headline number and draw sweeping conclusions about the strength of “job growth” when the devil is in the details. Look back at my post that you quoted and you will see that I was responding to the assertion on the OP that we have been experiencing strong job growth. In fact, the US has been shedding full time jobs for over a year now. And if you look at the job numbers for native born vs foreign born, the numbers are pretty eye opening.

The sky is not falling, but it strikes me as wrong to talk about strong job growth in the face of the actual numbers.

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