re: Forecaster who hasn't missed a presidential prediction in 40 YEARS reveals prediction

quote:

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There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Incumbency:

The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Third party:

There is no significant third party or independent campaign. RFK

Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. YES IT IS

Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. WRONG

Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. IN THE WRONG WAY

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TURN ON THE NEWS

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. REALLY??

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. GOT OT BE A JOKE

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. REALLY??

Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. LOL

Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUMP IS VERY CHARISMATIC

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