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re: Auburn Baseball Thread updated 5/4
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:05 pm to AUatWashandLee
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:05 pm to AUatWashandLee
Auburn wins 5-1.
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Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:05 pm to AUatWashandLee
Auburn wins 5-1. E, what does this mean for our chances at the NCAA tourney?
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:09 pm to AUatWashandLee
Need to sweep if you ask me to start thinking about a good shot in post season.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 9:12 pm to AUatWashandLee
It would take a sweep of Bama IMO. I don't see AU picking up more than 2 on the road between USC/UF.
Posted on 4/24/15 at 10:21 pm to AUatWashandLee
quote:Every win helps but if we stay in the top 30 in the RPI at the end of the season we need 4 more conference wins. If not in the top 30 then we need 5 more.
Auburn wins 5-1. E, what does this mean for our chances at the NCAA tourney?
quote:I wouldn't say need but it would be very nice. There are other ways. IF we don't lose another midweek game down the stretch then a combination of winning 2 of the last 3 series & get a game in the other series gets us in. Winning a series @ SCar is tough but is more doable this year than previous years. They lost 4 of 6 games to the 2nd & 3rd worst teams in the league, UGA @ home & Miss St. We are 4-1 versus those teams right now.
Need to sweep if you ask me to start thinking about a good shot in post season.
The other way IF we don't lose a midweek game is sweep Bama, & either take the SCar series or get a game @ both SCar & UF.
With all the said sweeping UGA makes things much easier as we would only need to win any 4 of our last 9 SEC games barring a midweek loss.
quote:IF we can get the game in & win tomorrow then sweeping Bama is not necessary if we get 2 from SCar & UF. Winning the series would be enough.
It would take a sweep of Bama IMO. I don't see AU picking up more than 2 on the road between USC/UF.
ETA: our SOS is #5 in the nation LINK . If it stays in the top 10, which it should barring loses to both Kennesaw & Morehead State's in noncon games I think 13 wins w/ a top 30 RPI makes a case for us getting in based on NCAA selection history.
This post was edited on 4/25/15 at 8:27 am
Posted on 4/25/15 at 8:30 am to ellitor
Game time changed for today from 12 to 5 start & now there is a window from 12-2 w/ 0% rain to get most of a game in. Crazy weather.
Posted on 4/25/15 at 11:16 am to ellitor
quote:
IF we can get the game in & win tomorrow then sweeping Bama is not necessary if we get 2 from SCar & UF. Winning the series would be enough.
I thought a .500 conference record was pretty much a requirement? If we only get two wins between UF/SCar, and don't sweep Bama, we'd be 1 game under no?
Posted on 4/25/15 at 11:37 am to AUbagman
quote:It's not. There have been some 13-17 conference record SEC teams make regionals & many, many 14-16 record teams make regionals. The big # to watch is being in the top 30 in the final pre regional RPI regardless of record. Only 1 SEC team in the past 15 years was in the top 30 & did not make regionals. They only had 12 wins in conference.
I thought a .500 conference record was pretty much a requirement?
quote:Yes. but as I said many 14-16 SEC teams have made regionals. doing what you stated would keep our SOS in the top 10 & RPI in the top 30 which history says a 14 conference win SEC team w/ a top 30 RPI gets in.
If we only get two wins between UF/SCar, and don't sweep Bama, we'd be 1 game under no?
Posted on 4/25/15 at 11:41 am to ellitor
quote:
Yes. but as I said many 14-16 SEC teams have made regionals.
Ah I see. I feel much better about making it now. The schedule is strong.
Posted on 4/25/15 at 12:09 pm to AUbagman
Here's a great tool to keep track of down the stretch. It's an RPI needs report. It tells you what a team needs to do to finish the season in the top 45, 32, 16, or 8 in the RPI based on how RPIs are today. It's updated every morning. You have to scroll down a bit to see AU. LINK
Basically as things stand noe we need any combination of 5 wins to likely make the top 32 in the RPI. Since I have seen over the years that RPI 30 or better is what is needed to make regionals for SEC teams we can say 6 wins is our magic # to be in the top 30 & make a regional.There is a caveat here if all 6 wins are @ home & all 6 losses are on the road then we could be sweating bullets on Selection Monday. NCAA committes for every sport put stock in how you did on the road & @ neutral sites, well because the post season for many teams is on the road or at neutral sites. If we lose out on the road our road/neutral record will be 6-14 which is not very good.
Basically as things stand noe we need any combination of 5 wins to likely make the top 32 in the RPI. Since I have seen over the years that RPI 30 or better is what is needed to make regionals for SEC teams we can say 6 wins is our magic # to be in the top 30 & make a regional.There is a caveat here if all 6 wins are @ home & all 6 losses are on the road then we could be sweating bullets on Selection Monday. NCAA committes for every sport put stock in how you did on the road & @ neutral sites, well because the post season for many teams is on the road or at neutral sites. If we lose out on the road our road/neutral record will be 6-14 which is not very good.
This post was edited on 4/27/15 at 6:53 am
Posted on 4/25/15 at 12:14 pm to ellitor
I think we got top 8 on lock. I'm feeling lucky.
Posted on 4/25/15 at 3:09 pm to ellitor
Thanks
Posted on 4/25/15 at 7:46 pm to AUbagman
Auburn 4 UGA 0 - bottom of the 6th.
AU going for the sweep.
AU going for the sweep.
Posted on 4/25/15 at 8:01 pm to AUbagman
Posted on 4/25/15 at 8:18 pm to AUtigerNOLA
We need 14 wins in league play IMO. 13-17 would be a tough sell even with our RPI.
Posted on 4/25/15 at 8:21 pm to warau
I don't think 14 will be a problem. I'm in the "we'll be playing postseason" boat as of right now.
Posted on 4/25/15 at 8:52 pm to AUbagman
AU wins, sweeps the mutts.
Posted on 4/25/15 at 8:53 pm to AUbagman
That's huge
Posted on 4/25/15 at 8:57 pm to AUbagman
Swept UGA! 4-1 final. Need to win one of our final three series and avoid the sweep and we are in. Win all three and we are borderline host material.
Posted on 4/25/15 at 9:59 pm to warau
quote:Historically speaking no. Only 1 SEC team w/ 13 con wins & an RPI in the top 30 has missed making regions since the tourney was expanded to 64 teams. That was 2011 LSU. That is because they finished 9th in the conference & missed the SEC tourney which only had 8 teams in the tourney back then. That LSU team missing regionals is a big reason the SEC tourney went from 8 to 12 teams.
We need 14 wins in league play IMO. 13-17 would be a tough sell even with our RPI.
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