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Auburn and SEC Rankings through 4 weeks
Posted on 9/29/16 at 10:41 am
Posted on 9/29/16 at 10:41 am
I got the idea to look at this from a topic on tRant. I looked at the scoring defense and offense of each SEC team and their opponents average scoring defense and offense. The asterisk is for teams that played an FCS team, and there were no rankings for them.
The average scoring offense shows the rank in the SEC and the average level of offense that each team has faced. The average scoring defense shows the rank in the SEC and the average level of defense that each team has faced.
For example, look at Auburn. They have a scoring defense of 28 (tied for 6th in the SEC) and a scoring offense of 99 (11th in the SEC). However, consider the opponents that Auburn has faced. Auburn's opponents' average scoring defense ranks 2nd with an average scoring defense rank of 38 (not shown). Even though the offense has been woeful, Auburn has faced much higher level defenses than Bama, who ranks last. Looking at the average opponent scoring offense, Auburn has faced an average opponent with a ranking of 7.
If we were to take these stats at face value, then with the remaining games on the schedule, Auburn has very winnable games against Miss State and Vanderbilt. A good chance to put up big points on Arkansas and Ole Miss. A tough matchup against Georgia. And, I'm throwing these stats out the window against Bama.
The average scoring offense shows the rank in the SEC and the average level of offense that each team has faced. The average scoring defense shows the rank in the SEC and the average level of defense that each team has faced.
For example, look at Auburn. They have a scoring defense of 28 (tied for 6th in the SEC) and a scoring offense of 99 (11th in the SEC). However, consider the opponents that Auburn has faced. Auburn's opponents' average scoring defense ranks 2nd with an average scoring defense rank of 38 (not shown). Even though the offense has been woeful, Auburn has faced much higher level defenses than Bama, who ranks last. Looking at the average opponent scoring offense, Auburn has faced an average opponent with a ranking of 7.
If we were to take these stats at face value, then with the remaining games on the schedule, Auburn has very winnable games against Miss State and Vanderbilt. A good chance to put up big points on Arkansas and Ole Miss. A tough matchup against Georgia. And, I'm throwing these stats out the window against Bama.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 10:56 am to Jyrdis
Good stuff.
The only thing I disagree with is our matchup with UGA. I know your analysis is based on stats, but based on the eye test, I think we're more likely to win against UGA than Ole Miss.
The only thing I disagree with is our matchup with UGA. I know your analysis is based on stats, but based on the eye test, I think we're more likely to win against UGA than Ole Miss.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:03 am to atlau
quote:
I think we're more likely to win against UGA than Ole Miss.
Oh yeah. In fact, I'd put Ole Miss at the No. 1 spot as games least likely to win category. As of today our offense can't afford to get in a boat race situation, and while our D is good, they are going to give up some points to that O. We have to match on O and get a couple stops on D.
Posted on 9/29/16 at 11:12 am to Jyrdis
Bama has been killing their opponents. Now I see why.
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