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AU vs. Ole Miss game week and prediction discussion
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:29 am
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:29 am
Let's do this again.
Offensive Stat Comparison
Stat_______________AUB__________MISS
Yards/Play________6.3____________6.3
Points/Play_______0.446__________0.505
Rush Play %______68.75%________45.66%
Pass Play %______31.25%_________54.34%
Completion %____68.12%_________60.27%
3D Conv %_______48.54%_________34.67%
RZ Scoring %_____82.86%_________92.86%
Defensive Stat Comparison
Stat__________________AUB__________MISS
Opp Yards/Play_______4.7___________5.9
Opp Points/Play_______0.201_________0.421
Opp Completion %____55.17%_______60.79%
Opp 3D Conv %_______29.91%_______38.20%
Opp RZ Scoring %_____68.18%_______88.46%
AU is #3 in country in rushing yards averaging 302.9 per game. In case you didn't hear, we rushed for 543 against Arkansas this past Saturday.
OM is #103 in country in rushing D allowing an average of 225.8 ypg.
PPG
AU: #27 at 35.7 ppg
OM: #22 at 36.8 ppg
Passing YPG
OM: #17 averaging 314.5 ypg
Passing D YPG
AU: #28 allowing 198.3 average ypg
First and foremost, the line opening in OM's favor (-1) scares me. I want to believe it's because of action, but if that were the case I would think AU would open as a huge favorite.
I don't feel as confident about this game as I did the Arkansas game. It could be because I had this circled as a for sure loss up until a couple of weeks ago. This is also our first true road test and Chad Kelly is a damn good QB.
With that said, on paper, we should win this game with a similar plan as the on we used with Arkansas -- run it at them unmercifully.
The test will be our D against Kelly. I watched the OM/LSU game and one of their starting O-lineman went down. Not sure the status of the injury, but that doesn't bode well for Kelly. I also texted with an OM friend and he thinks OM has packed it in. I think Freeze is an excellent motivator and this could be a dangerous team - one with a nothing to lose attitude.
As long as AU stays focused and isn't distracted by the Arkansas beatdown we should be fine.
If KJ is back, which he should be, I predict both he and KP go for over 100 yards.
AU: 37
OM: 24
Offensive Stat Comparison
Stat_______________AUB__________MISS
Yards/Play________6.3____________6.3
Points/Play_______0.446__________0.505
Rush Play %______68.75%________45.66%
Pass Play %______31.25%_________54.34%
Completion %____68.12%_________60.27%
3D Conv %_______48.54%_________34.67%
RZ Scoring %_____82.86%_________92.86%
Defensive Stat Comparison
Stat__________________AUB__________MISS
Opp Yards/Play_______4.7___________5.9
Opp Points/Play_______0.201_________0.421
Opp Completion %____55.17%_______60.79%
Opp 3D Conv %_______29.91%_______38.20%
Opp RZ Scoring %_____68.18%_______88.46%
AU is #3 in country in rushing yards averaging 302.9 per game. In case you didn't hear, we rushed for 543 against Arkansas this past Saturday.
OM is #103 in country in rushing D allowing an average of 225.8 ypg.
PPG
AU: #27 at 35.7 ppg
OM: #22 at 36.8 ppg
Passing YPG
OM: #17 averaging 314.5 ypg
Passing D YPG
AU: #28 allowing 198.3 average ypg
First and foremost, the line opening in OM's favor (-1) scares me. I want to believe it's because of action, but if that were the case I would think AU would open as a huge favorite.
I don't feel as confident about this game as I did the Arkansas game. It could be because I had this circled as a for sure loss up until a couple of weeks ago. This is also our first true road test and Chad Kelly is a damn good QB.
With that said, on paper, we should win this game with a similar plan as the on we used with Arkansas -- run it at them unmercifully.
The test will be our D against Kelly. I watched the OM/LSU game and one of their starting O-lineman went down. Not sure the status of the injury, but that doesn't bode well for Kelly. I also texted with an OM friend and he thinks OM has packed it in. I think Freeze is an excellent motivator and this could be a dangerous team - one with a nothing to lose attitude.
As long as AU stays focused and isn't distracted by the Arkansas beatdown we should be fine.
If KJ is back, which he should be, I predict both he and KP go for over 100 yards.
AU: 37
OM: 24
This post was edited on 10/24/16 at 10:33 am
15
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:31 am to atlau
Not as confident as I was last week, if Ole Miss is still giving a frick about the season I could see them hitting some deep passes on us.
I'll say 27-21 Auburn
I'll say 27-21 Auburn
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:35 am to blzr
quote:
I could see them hitting some deep passes on us.
Agreed. I think it all depends on OM's O line.
The last few games, Kelly has been the one bright spot on their offense trying to do everything. He also hasn't looked as sharp. I just hope we get "Bad Chad"
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:41 am to atlau
41-17
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:44 am to atlau
31-21 AU
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:48 am to atlau
I am quite confident.
This is almost the same situation as Arky, Kelly is comparable to Allen but OM has taller receivers. They have a weak rushing attack. I know it seems Kelly rushes for a lot of yards, but only has 269.
They play tougher than Arky,and their OL doesn't give up as many sacks as Arky. I also think Freeze is a better game planner than Bert.
Yes, it is no gimme, but we should win comfortably, and if that D can break the will of that O, and our OL crushes their D's soul. This could be another rout.
Normally you could consider this a trap game, but I believe we have the leadership and team buy in to overcome a let down.
This is almost the same situation as Arky, Kelly is comparable to Allen but OM has taller receivers. They have a weak rushing attack. I know it seems Kelly rushes for a lot of yards, but only has 269.
They play tougher than Arky,and their OL doesn't give up as many sacks as Arky. I also think Freeze is a better game planner than Bert.
Yes, it is no gimme, but we should win comfortably, and if that D can break the will of that O, and our OL crushes their D's soul. This could be another rout.
Normally you could consider this a trap game, but I believe we have the leadership and team buy in to overcome a let down.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:50 am to atlau
Haven't attempted to predict scores at all this year, and with things going well I won't start now 
However, I will observe that Ole Freeze has been a 1st-half team all year - they've outscored their opponents 172-81 through the first two quarters, but have been outscored 139-87 after halftime.
If we can go into the locker room with any kind of a lead I'll feel pretty good about our chances.
However, I will observe that Ole Freeze has been a 1st-half team all year - they've outscored their opponents 172-81 through the first two quarters, but have been outscored 139-87 after halftime.
If we can go into the locker room with any kind of a lead I'll feel pretty good about our chances.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:56 am to FearlessFreep
Don't know if it has been mentioned, but Ole Miss starting LT left the LSU game his backup is a True Freshman. Ole Miss players were fighting on the sidelines one kid got sent to the locker room by coaches. Evidently Bridges was calling out coaches. Then there is this gem from the Ole Miss board LINK /. When was the last time we had a conference fan base melting a week out? It will be Arky ugly in Oxfart.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:57 am to atlau
AU 37 OM 24
Posted on 10/24/16 at 11:28 am to golfntiger32
Posted on 10/24/16 at 11:37 am to Rig
It is scary and Kelly is due after crappy performances. The key to this game is Thug Kelly. And that means our defensive backs / nickel / dime packages had better be ready. The vid of CKS dancing with the boys was awesome, but this week, THIS WEEK against Ole Miss is where he will show his mettle or get embarrassed and possibly lose this game.
Our D front is stout. It is what is behind them (LB corps / secondary) that will determine this game. UM had a great receiving crops and credit to buckteeth, they have for several years.Secondary / LB coaches and CKS need to show up and make sure their kids are prepared for Thug and his tendencies and the UM receivers corps. AU secondary - step up and let's PPAP!
Our D front is stout. It is what is behind them (LB corps / secondary) that will determine this game. UM had a great receiving crops and credit to buckteeth, they have for several years.Secondary / LB coaches and CKS need to show up and make sure their kids are prepared for Thug and his tendencies and the UM receivers corps. AU secondary - step up and let's PPAP!
Posted on 10/24/16 at 11:41 am to freemanjiro
I would guess 35-24 type game. My mind tells me we will get their final shot of the season, but I also don't see them as matching up well other than their big WR against our DB's. If we keep running the ball like we have and not giving up big plays we will be a tough win for anybody.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 12:09 pm to freemanjiro
quote:Likewise, the Rhett/Herb offensive braintrust needs to be prepared to slow the tempo but still move the ball and keep it out of Swag's hands. Those sub 2 minute scoring drives are awesome, but I don't think we can let Ole Freeze have a 12-3 TOP advantage in a quarter and not give up a lot of points.
THIS WEEK against Ole Miss is where he will show his mettle or get embarrassed and possibly lose this game
Would love to see a drive like the one against the Pigs that ended with SW's 4th-down TD, or the 8 1/2 minute beauty against MSU that essentially ran out the clock.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 12:09 pm to atlau
Gus going in dry on his ole buddy. Kelly will scramble out of trouble a few times, but we will get 3 turnovers from them.
49-17 AU
49-17 AU
Posted on 10/24/16 at 12:19 pm to jvilletiger25
Thanks for the stats. Frick the stats. This game comes down to Thug Kelley and our defensive backfield.
If Thug's mindest is WIN, then we will be in for a fight on all fronts.
If he gets hit and hit again and if our nickel / di
me groups do their job, we win, maybe easily.
This game is on our defense, especially our secondary. Thug CK can hurt us with his feet He needs to get hit early and often, Ole Miss's receivers need to be blanketed in man, and zones need to be disciplined on routes and preventing any rush / scramble particularly 3rd downs.
We will really see what kind of D we have on Saturday, on the road.
PREDICTION:
Auburn vs. Ole Piss
I can't say. It all looks great on paper, but something is telling me to mash the brakes and keep mashing.
If Thug's mindest is WIN, then we will be in for a fight on all fronts.
If he gets hit and hit again and if our nickel / di
me groups do their job, we win, maybe easily.
This game is on our defense, especially our secondary. Thug CK can hurt us with his feet He needs to get hit early and often, Ole Miss's receivers need to be blanketed in man, and zones need to be disciplined on routes and preventing any rush / scramble particularly 3rd downs.
We will really see what kind of D we have on Saturday, on the road.
PREDICTION:
Auburn vs. Ole Piss
I can't say. It all looks great on paper, but something is telling me to mash the brakes and keep mashing.
This post was edited on 10/24/16 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 10/24/16 at 12:49 pm to freemanjiro
We have leadership. Better than any we have seen in many years. Both sides of the ball have more than one guy that can command attention.
They will make a big play, or two. But w/ out DL, we eventually wear them down.
If KJ is ready to go, AU 38 - OM 20
They will make a big play, or two. But w/ out DL, we eventually wear them down.
If KJ is ready to go, AU 38 - OM 20
Posted on 10/24/16 at 1:18 pm to jrljr
No predictions, but I am excited about traveling to Oxford.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 1:20 pm to jrljr
45-31. I don't know what to think about this game. Adjusted -3 line. We know OM is going to score points, but it's hard not to bet on our defense and coming up with some asinine 52-17 prediction.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 1:27 pm to atlau
We should dominate both lines like MSU and Arkansas. Ole Miss can't stop the run and also can't run the ball. Check this thread out.
AU: 34
Ole Miss: 13
AU: 34
Ole Miss: 13
Posted on 10/24/16 at 1:29 pm to jsmoove
Auburn hasn't given up 30 or more points (in regulation) to a Power 5 opponent since LSU early last season... That's 12 games.
I'm not saying ole can't get to 31 bc they're very explosive and our dbs haven't been tested in a while... but I like our chances to keep them under that.
I'm not saying ole can't get to 31 bc they're very explosive and our dbs haven't been tested in a while... but I like our chances to keep them under that.
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